The New Zealand Times. TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 7. 1911. GERMANY AND EUROPE

New Zealand Times, Volume XXXIII, Issue 7356, 7 February 1911, Page 4

The New Zealand Times. TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 7. 1911. GERMANY AND EUROPE

There are indications that the Foreign policy of Germany is approaching a decisive movement. In other words, that the period of uncertainty which keeps the world budding Dreadnoughts and its diplomacy in a state of apprehensive uncertainty is drawing to an end. Of these signs the most ominous is the controversy now in full swing about the fortification of Flushing by the Dutch Government. The unofficial discussion of this question has somewhat cleared the, air, and there stands revealed a solid understanding between Germany and Holland on the subject of their future relations. They are allies, and so long as Holland is faithful to the alliance, is in. fact faithful to the German policy of expansion, so long will the reigning dynasty enjoy its seat on the Dutch, throne. This is now understood to be a point in the development of German polity on which the Germans have determined to insist. On behalf of Germany it is stated' by a recent writer who has made it his business to pursue his inquiries among the foremost men of Germany, that there is every desire on the part of German statesmen to respect the neutrality of Belgium, guaranteed by Britain and France, provided—and here appears tbe danger signal that matters can be arranged all along the line of European interests to German satisfaction- The summary of many conversations held all over Gerniany with representative men, none of them of the •lingo sort, seems on this point to culminate in a threat that unless agreement is arrived at on the points indicated the German insistence on the Dutch alliance will be followed by such want of respect for the neutrality of Belgium ns will amount to a "casubelli." To open the ball against Britain is held to be out of the question, the supremacy of the British fleet being regarded throughout Germany as far too great to be neglected. But an attack on France with Holland baring the entry to Belgium by the eoa would present a

different outlook, especially if some arrangement of a friendly nature were made with Russia. The negotiations for a German understanding with Russia give a rather ominous meaning to the Flushing discussion. It becomes therefore of importance to know what the general line of policy is on which Germany may be regarded ns moving for the furtherance of the German interests. Sir Harry Johnston, the writer alluded to, found.no hesitation on the part of the men he conversed with in Germany to indicate that line. In the pages of the "Nineteenth Century” he describes their attitude and general views at some length, premising that ho. has not permitted his judgment to take any note of the more violent politicians or nationalists, keeping only to the moderate men, who form the great majority of German opinion. To begin with ho describes the German view of British, foreign policy as a policy of grabbing everything it can lay its hands upon, making alliances such as the final Triple Alliance for the purpose of preparing the way. For example, there is the agreement with Turkey making the Arabian country behind Aden and to the Persian Gulf a sphere of British influence; there is_ the agreement with Russia for what looks to Germany much like the partition of Persia; there are many others which fill up a long list, going as far back as the British occupation of Egypt. And all this, say these critics, by a Power which scolded the Kaiser for his Chinese policy, thwarted him at Tripoli, ordered Germany to take "hands oft'”’in Liberia and Somaliland, forbade the sale of West India Islands to Germany by Denmark, winked at the seizure of Korea by one ally and the attempted capture of Manchuria by another, and almost went to war about the harmless necessary Austrian annexation of the Balkan country with the consent of the Su.tan, and is putting spokes into every German wheel that trios to turn for the Fatherland in Turkey, Asia Minor, anywhere one likes to mention. Britons will bo reminded of the fabio of the wolf and the lamb, but the feeling here outlined is represented as very real nevertheless. The mention of Asia Minor points the way to the settlement desired by these Germans who speak their minds so plainly. They declare, in fact, that if their country is allowed a free hand in the country named, with full outlet for schemes of commerce and colonisation in what was once the richest of countries of the world, say, from Constantinople to the mouth' of the Euphrates, anything may follow, even to a general disarmament, as the final step to the permanency .of peace. The two obstacles to this which suggest themselves to every student of history are Turkey and Russia. The Germans seem to have no difficulty about imagining that a settlement can be come to by mutual consent quite simply, but this seems to he taking things rather too much for granted. The Turks are considered to be ready to acquiesce in the supremacy of German influence at Constantinople, of course under the Crescent. In other words, it is thought that the Turk will be content with the material benefits of the "entente” and the moderation of German policy. The one thing wanting to happiness is freedom from interference by Britain and the allies of ' Britain.. In return the German eye would be firmly closed against all partitions, distributions and "ententes” on the other side —Persia, Siam, Egypt, Morocco, Annam, Arabia, the Persian Gulf and any; others that might suggest themselves to- the high contracting parties. The end promised is the serenest, and no one in the British Empire is likely to make objection. At all events the old school of statesmen who were ready to draw the sword almost at the mere mention of the Turk has passed away and the possession of Egypt is generally regarded as sufficient guarantee for the Indian route, especially if the further safeguards of Arabian and'Persian control be thrown in by international agreement. But one may doubt the power of the Kaiser's diplomacy to find an equivalent for the Constantinople outlet, which has kept Russian ambition so keen for centuries. And the new Turks are beginning to find a more solid comprehension of facts much to their advantage. Their recent display of a force of almost a million of men is one. of the most suggestive things that has recently happened. Be it attainable, or be it outside practical politics, the object of German diplomacy may be said to bo now known. If it is attainable it will do much for the peace; if it is not, why there will be as much work for swords in the future as there is in prospect just at present—irerhaps more, for the failure of this policy seems to mean that there will be nothing left but the sword for the international settlement.