THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 1941 HITLER'S FORCED GAMBLE

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXVIII, Issue 23879, 1 February 1941, Page 8

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 1941 HITLER'S FORCED GAMBLE

On whatever other European frontiers the news correspondents may discover signs of an imminent German offensive—and they range over a wide and varied field —they are apt to return to those sea frontiers facing the British Isles on the arc stretching from Bergen to Brest. This doubling back is natural and inevitable because Britain is the logical objective of any Nazi bid for final victory. It can be assured in 110 other direction. Hitler may pass the Pyrenees or the Brenner, prowl through Epirus to Patras and Piraeus, cross Drave or Danube, brood over the Black Sea or descend on the Dardanelles—still he would i'ali short of the decisive result. Britain would still lie on his flank, denying him food and raw materials, while building up her own strength and vigour and acting as the rallying centre and inspiration of free men everywhere. However long he may shiver on the brink—and he cannot afford to hesitate much longer—Hitler must in the end take the plunge into the cold grey waters of North Sea and Channel. Renewed realisation of the choice —or lack of choice—confronting Hitler has no doubt been responsible for this week's fresh crop of repeats of invasion plans, whether emanating from unofficial sources in London, .Washington and NewYork, or from such authorities as Lord De La Warr and Mr. Stimson, American. Secretarv of War.

I A new factor affecting Hitler's plans is the changed diplomatic situation in south-west and south-east Europe. A march in either direction no longer presents a comparatively easy option. In the • south-west General Franco is sheer- . ing away from the Axis. He seems to have been unmoved by Hitler's blandishments, although the "All Highest" of 1940 travelled all the way to the Pyrenees to woo him. British navicerts for wheat, cotton and oil, and American credits, have proved more persuasive. Hitler can no longer count on a free passage through Spain to Gibraltar and on to the Atlantic coast of Africa. At the same time as the south-western exit has been closing, the line to the south-east, that promised so well three months ago, has been twisted and broken by Grecian bayonets and General Wavell's dynamism. Hitler had been counting on peaceful penetration in the Balkans, moral suasion exercised on Turkey, and a march through Asia Minor to join hands with Graziani's victorious legions at ! Suez. Italy's ignominious failure in I Greece has changed the whole diplo- | matic picture in the Balkans, stiffen- ; ing Yugoslavia, neutralising Bul- | garia, and encouraging Turkey, | while her rout in Africa has shattered any grand strategic moves by the Axis in the Middle East. Hitler's diminished interest is now to prop up Mussolini in the hope that his very junior partner may continue j to hold British naval, military and air forces in the Middle East and away from the decisive theatre in the West. He himself has been headed back there by the success of Anglo-American diplomacy in Madrid and the failure of Italian arms in Africa and Greece. Paradoxical as it may seem, another reason why Hitler must seek to force the issue in the West is because there is concentrated the main base and forces of the British Empire—the most powerful Navy in the world, a strong and most efficient Air Force, and an Army of 1,750,000 men backed by the 2,000,000 of the Home Guard. These forces invite invasion as well as forbid it, for Hitler cannot go campaigning to Dakar or the Persian Gulf or Suez while they remain unreduced on his flank and rear. To reach any of these more distant objectives, moreover, would consume time without bringing decision. Time is running against Hitler. While under the blockade it reduces his resources, it is building up the British, their armaments and their trained effectives. Time also enables America to reorganise and gear up her industry for munitions production, with cumulative results that will begin to be felt later this year and become formidable in 19-12. Hitler must try to anticipate the flood from American factories. Finally he is forced to seek an early decision by the unrest all over Europe. The occupied countries will never be quietened while freedom's beacon still burns brightly in Britain, inspiring hope, sustaining national spirit, encouraging resistance. It follows that Hitler must take the plunge and soon. Happily for the Empire, he has already by his hesitation allowed eight months since Dunkirk for arming, training and fortifying—and on this occasion the time has been well used. Britain is ready and faces the coming chal- 1 lenge with confidence, calm and sure.