OUTLOOK FOR TRADE.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXV, Issue 20076, 13 October 1928, Page 14

OUTLOOK FOR TRADE.

« NEVER FELT HAPPIER."

OPTIMISM IN BUSINESS. INCREASE IN PRODUCTION. [by telegraph.—own correspondent.] WELLINGTON. Friday. "Tho outlook is tho brightest we have seen for a number of years." In these words tho annual conference of tho Associated Chambers of Commerce was addressed to-day by tho retiring president, Mr. D. J. McGowan. "We have made a rapid recovery from tho recont depression," ho said, "and when tho full rosults of tho recent bountiful season have been absorbed the additional purchasingpower available should see increased activity in business circles. "In no year since tho declaration! of peace have wo felt, in a general way, happier with tho prospect of things than we do to day. If the resources of tho Dominion are husbanded and used wisely a period of sound prosperity lies before us." It was as yet somewhat difficult to give full statistical evidence of tho favourable effect of tho recent tariff rovision upon British trade, said Mr. McGowan. The restriction of purchasing which had been a feature of New Zealand's trade during tho first, half of tho present year had obscured tho situation somewhat, and it was only with the resumption of normal conditions that tho effect would be clearly brought out. Recent years had seen a fairly steady decrease in tho share of New Zealand's import trade secured by tho United Kingdom—s2.2s per cent, in 1922 to 46.3 per cent, in the first half of the present year. Britain Recovers Her Share.

With the increase in imports which had recently taken place more normal conditions wero likely to prevail and it was satisfactory to note that in July last the percentage of British goods imported rose to 54.2 per cent, of the whole, and in August it was 50.9 per cent. As a result of this welcome movement tho share of the import trade of New Zealand obtained by the United Kingdom during the first eight months of the year /'ose to 48 per cent., as compared with 47.9 per cent, for 1927, while the continuance of this trend should result iti a substantial increase in the percentage for tho current year. With British manufacturers becoming increasingly alivo to the great possibilities of the market open for them in the Dominion thero was reasonable anticipation of a much more substantial improvement next year. It was significant that our five principal exports showed the following increases in quantity over the previous season:—Wool, 1.1 per cent.; butter, 7.9 per cent.; cheese, 2.8 per cent.; frozen lamb, 19.6 per cent.; frozen mutton, 3.1 per cent. An increase of 90.6 per cent, was recorded for frozen beef, while tallow showed 57.9 per cent, and hides, 5.6 per cent. Tho only decrcaso was in sheepskins, which declined by 5.0 per cent., chiefly because the year 1926-27 happened to be an abnormally big year for this item.

There was evidence, too, that the 1927-28 season was bountiful in prices. Wool, our biggest export item in point of value, showed an increase in value of 28.4 per cent., in comparison with 1926-27; butter, 15.9 per cent. ; cheese, 19.2 per cent.; frozen lamb, 22.1 per cent.; sheepskins, 10.4 per cent.; frozen beef, 101.2 per cent.; hides, 54.0 per cent.; tallow, 42.5 per cent. A small decrease of 1.9 per cent, in mutton was the only reduction recorded. Confidence for Future.

Extending the comparison for quantities over the last five years there were unmistakable indications that there* had been a net increase in productivity in our primary industries. The increases were: —Wool, 5.7 per cent.; butter, 30.6 per cent.; cheese, 5.9 per cent.; isheepskins, 15.0 per cent.; frozen lamb, 23.8 per cent.; frozen mutton, 36.0 per cent.; hides, 18,4 per cent.; tallow, 36.4 per cent. Other promising featuresoorL r tho position wero the fact that banking deposits exceeded advances by the magnificent sum of £9,750.000 last June and tho fact that in the short space of 12 months an upward turn in overseas prices had effected an improvement of £13,000,000 in our trade balance. "Although we can look forward to the immediate futuro with every confidence," Mr. McGowan concluded, "we should profit by our adverse periods, which show only too well how our economic equilibrium is governed by our export trade. We should lay aside reserves in times of prosperity and consolidate against the adverse times which can be relied upon to appear at certain intervals. We should look more and moro to increased production, which is tho only way wo can counteract tho world-wide fall in prices which appears inevitable."