THE BALKAN TANGLE.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LII, Issue 16010, 31 August 1915, Page 8

THE BALKAN TANGLE.

KINGS AGAINST PEOPLE

GERMAN COURT INFLUENCE

DECISION WITH BULGARIA

(Received August 30, 5 p.m.)

London, August 29. Sir Edwin Pears, the well-known authority on Turkey and the Near

East, in an interview published in the Daily Chronicle, states: "If Bulgaria secures a promise from Servia and the allies that Macedonia will be restored to her, 1 believe that despite King Ferdinand- who has Austrian leanings, she will come in. If she joins the allies. Greece will | follow her. King Ferdinand is a I born diplomat. He began life as an Austrian officer, and he possesses vast estates in Hungary- He is very vain, ambitious, and, 1 fear. j unscrupulous. Bulgaria's foreign 'j policy, owing to the Bulgarian poli- { tical group system, is almost entirely in his hands. Nevertheless, 'Bulgaria is democratic in name, and 1 . may become in a crisis like the pre- ! sent, democratic in reality. King ' i Ferdinand regards Bulgaria as the ['•'Prussia of the Balkans." I fancy j he even once made preparations for • his own coronation as Byzantine j emperor, in Sain! Sophia, at Conj stantinople.

i Mischief-making Queen. I ''It would he a mistake in overestimate the influence possessed by i Royal families, bur it must not be 'underestimated at this moment. In ! Roumania, Bulgaria, Greece. Swe- | den. and Russia there are strong 1 pro-German elements in the Courts j The democracy of these countries, however, mostly takes a different i view. I am sure that the Bulgarians, but for their chagrin over ; their defeat in the second Balkan [war, would long since have joined J us. " Regarding Greece, the Queen, who is a sister of the Kaiser, has great influence with King Constantine. Quite recently she brought Greece within measurable distance of a revolution- M. Venizelos's con- I cern to-day is rather how far he can rely upon the army, which is not inclined to take great risks. M. I Venizelos is in favour of conciliating 1 Bulgaria, and for adequate compensation would, perhaps, surrender j the vEgean port of Kavalla. Had Greece joined the allies originally, j she would have had the Turkish j province of Aiden, with Smyrna, the j capital. Even now abominable Turkish outrages on Greek? at Aivali make it certain that the allies' suc--5 cess, if Greece supports them, will imply a very large extension of ' I Greek territory in Asia Minor. ' j 11 Key to the Situation. J ''The key to the situation is an t i arrangement between Bulgaria and tjServia. If Servia surrenders Mace- ! donia this will ensure the aid pro--3 bably of Roumania and Greece. The King of Roumania, as a Hohenzollern, naturally looks towards Germany, but this itself is not suffij cient to keep Roumania neutral. J She, like Bulgaria, is somewhat afraid that Russia's success will imply the occupation of Constantinople, * and. consequently, the transformation of the Balkans as Russian provinces. This danger, from their standpoint, is less great than formerly. The ; j German alliance with Turkey comt j pels them to favour Russia rather , j than the Teutons. Roumania is .j populous, wealthy, and powerful, ( and I ain hopeful that her relations , with Bulgaria and Russia will soon , enable her to participate in the war. " Regarding Turkey's future, if the Dardanelles are forced she must leave Europe. She has lost the VEgean Islands, and she will lose part of Asia Minor. Adrianople will revert to Bulgaria. My solution would be to create Constantinople and the country surrounding the Sea of Marmora, the Bosphorus, ! and the Dardanelles, into an international State governed by an j international commission similar to the Danubian CommisI sion, which has been so suci cessful. Constantinople and the | Dardanelles would not be fortified, inasmuch as the new State wouldbe guaranteed internationally, and defences would be unnecessary."

TURKEY AM) BULGARIA.

CESSION OF TERRITORY. Paris, August 2!). The Matin's correspondent at Sofi a states that a protocol has been signed under which Turkey transfers to Bulgaria ten kilometre:; of territory eastward of Enos. and also '••lies Karagach station. Th.- frontier then runs to the eastward of Maritza. Difficulties in the dire •- tion of Midi;!, are still unsettled. PREVENTING AGREEMENT. GERMAN ENDEAVOURS 1.ON!, AlJgllsl -in. '' '"' Time..' correspondent .1! Athens, who has visited tin different Balkan States since the crisis '"•'-•ame acute, and enjovs favourable opportunities for ascertaining tin- best opinion in the four capitals. le-sules having had int. rviews with M. Pasitch, Servian Premier, and VI Venizelos. Premier of Greece, says that, until August io Servia was strongly opposed to making concessions in Macedonia. Then there came a marked change The (}<,%-. ernment remained theoretically unwilling to concede Bulgaria', claims of 1912. did not acquiesce i n the junction of Bulgaria and Albania [and insisted on the necessity for an

open way to Salonika. Nevertheless the tone of the Servian Government wa-8 so conciliatory and disposed to entertain proposals that it seemed evident that only straightforwardness on Bulgaria's part was needed to achieve an understanding.

Simultaneously Germanophile cirri* in Sofia stated that a strong Austro-German attack oil the Servian north-west frontier was fixed for September 10. On the 15th it was rsserted that the Kaiser had declared his intention of finally wiping Servia off the map, en route to Constantinople- The Servian Government was not impressed. Greece's continued sympathy with the allies is not impaired. M. Venizelos assured the correspondent to that effect to-day.