THE ANNUAL RAINFALL IN CHRISTCHURCH.

Lyttelton Times, Volume LIII, Issue 5953, 25 March 1880, Page 6

THE ANNUAL RAINFALL IN CHRISTCHURCH.

r-iJEr-J. B. Stansell, meteorological observer, urrites to us ! ' ' The peiiodioity of extreme rainfalls, storms, ieat, and cold, is now’the subject of diSouseioain most of the Meteorological Societies in the United Kingdom and the Continent of Europe. * Many theories are suggested as to the Mtent of the oydes within which they occur. 'The 1 Rev Henry Roe, of Sherborne, hsa given a very plausible theory as to their extent,’ which appears to coincide with the rainfall in England. I offer no opinion upon this theory as applied to New Zealand, but from the published matter accompanying this letter, the enquiring reader 1 can form his own conclusions. The extreme importance ’of this subject to the farming interest in Now' Zealand must be my excuse (if any is needed) for taking up so much of your valuable space. ! BAIHFAim AT OHBISXCHUHCH. 1 1864... ... ... 22.09 S inches " ir 1865... ... ... 24849 „ 18fi6... ... ... 19.440 „ 1867.. ... ... 80.070 „ :* ; 1868 ... ... 30.041 „ - r lst>s>... ... ... 27.292,. „ ‘.i870... .... ' 1871... 27.935 „ , .1872... 19.741 „ 1873 26.330. „ * ‘1874... ... , 22.790 » . 1876 ... . 32.310 . „ . 1876.. ... ... 23 990 „ 1877 ... ... ... ,23.720 „ ! . 1^3... ... ’f6 months end-~J , s I ivg June, { ... i i«raWo«“™d.,- !3 - ,so ’ i fog Dec., ! ' . 10 230 J ........ Mean for 16yeara ....-24699 : k W , - ( Tho -fbllowfog is the communication kk | ( £s.3Sdia,t— ■ '■■■ 1 EBW-*WFSATHSB THEORY; •_ I, sj.nopfibso everybody bn occasion enacts the t ptort flf weather prophet, and sometimes hie } prediction bombs true; btit if I wbre to pose ;< m tuit bharaeteri m ybuf ’ cbfomnb and pro-' eeod to make the melancholy claim, of having. I long foretold the present' dismal eeasoii, I' p ifflouM probably get 'a > shrug for my conceit, j if-'not a laugh for my folly- Dropping, then, \ the prophet’s-mantle, and arming myself only | with the chronicler’s pen, I would like to j place oh record one. or two results of careful ] observations -T' ’ have ;iaiide extending over J nearly thirty summers. . a The Erst of these results is, that dry and jwot periods succeed one another in alternate a waves of: nearly equal length; not'that this p «qualily of dioration is quite absolute, br that I wffivb bf one period is exactly the fac t of that of a corresponding pbrind at I ari earlier or a later time; but there'is enough s -of 1 tegislarity and uniformity about the waves B to iirie the family likeness clearly.discernible b to anyeye that looks for it. These periods J oitbffld'bvbr three - whole years for each,' and ii the follovring.simple rules will enable anyone b to work out the several cycles of years for t] himself. 1 v ’ : '" v

<L When the number representing any : given 'year is even and exactly divisible by tJaeeythst y?aris the middle one of,.time cold and'wet summers. 2. When the number represehting-thei year ia odd. and divisible by 3, then that year is the huddle one of a triad of dry and hot summers. Bbr example,' 1860 is even and divisible by 3* and the prevailing characteristic of the three years 1859,1850,1861 was, wet, or wet and cold; and again 1883 is odd and divisible by a, and everybody remembers, and 1864, as bright,' hot and dry summery. . . now a range of 27 years, oyer which my own personal observations extend, and applvihg the rules inst given, the,wet, and coU triads were 1853-5, 1859-61, 1865-7, 1871-S, and 1877-9, while the i dry and hot triads 1 Were,' 1856-8, 1862-4, 1868-71, and 1874 6, and, without claiming that no single year broke loose from this yerj simple order of seasons, I fearlessly maintain that all the markedly wet or dry summers of the past 27 years' fall accurately within some wet or. dry period as given above; so that no very wet y tar falls in what should have been p dry period, nor any very dry year in what hypothetically was a wet period. ■ This hypothesis receives considerable con-, £nusti°P from an examination of the average, pricci : 6f corn during the years already referred j to. _ Ordinarily, after a wet summer* m next yearV averages ought to he high* ! and. after a ,dry summer the reverse,, How it is s ftct that high averages prevailed from, 1854 to 1856, and low from 1857 to 1859 ; _ they’wero' np 'sgain during 1860-2, down in 1863-5, np in 1866-8, down in 1869-72, up in 1873-4, and- down in 1875-7. How far these cycle a may be-shown to coincide with the greater cycle of 11 or 12 years,'which is observed in the maxima and minima of spots on the sun’s, surface, ia more than I have time now to inquire; but my good neighbours at Sherborne know that for some two or three; years past, 1 have been pointing out )to thorn in public .lectures moat of the. things I have spoken of in this letter, and I have only to regret that my “forecasts” have been more l than borne out by the facts. , So much for chronicle, now for one word of prediction. The number 1881 is odd and divisible by 3,- and if there is anything in my theory, that year ought to be the middle one of a triad of hot and dry summers. lam looking forward, therefore, with much, contidence to a good summer in 1880, followed by two similarly good ones in 1881 and 1882} and, for the sake of every interest in the country, I' earnestly hope my expectation may hot bo disappointed. Hknet Kowe, 3T.E.A.5., V . Poyntington Eectoiy, Sherborne. „July 15,1879 (8t Bwithin). .; ,