THE TIDE

Evening Star, Issue 16529, 14 September 1917, Page 6

THE TIDE

RUNNING AGAINST KORNILOFF. KERENSEY CLAIMS VICTORY. PHANTOM GENERAL. REVAL OR PETROGRAD P [By Criticus.] To-day como the first item of information from General Korniloff's side and the first attempt to state his aspect of the case. A Petrograd cable states that Korniloff has issued a proclamation declaring that his one desire is to bring the country ■out of an impasse and to lead it along the road to fortune. He swears that he will hold power only until a Constituent Assembly has been convokod. Revolutionaries always begin with protestations like that, whatever their actual aims; but in this case there need be little doubt that the proclamation is sincere. General Korniloff took an activo part in the deposition of the old regime because of its treachery and inefficiency, and ho is not likely to desire to bring it back. But there is no evidence yet that he holds much power, and not much probability that he is likely to got it. Evory day brings proof that Korniloff has bungled his attempt about as' hopelessly as such "an enterprise ever was mismanaged. Kerensky is assuming the tone of a victor. Ho declares that the "senseless attempt at mutiny by a late Commander-in-Chief and a small group'of generals ended In complete failure." Ho adds: "This bloodless liquidation of the mutiny shows the wisdom of the people, the army, and the fleet, who are loyal to the Fatherland and the legal Government." The hint that the Provisional Government is the legal one illustrates the eagerness of revolutionary Governments to forget their own origin when competitors appear in the field. Apart from this, however, Kerensky's claims appear to be substantially correct so far as can be gathered from the one-sided accounts we are getting. There is no evidence that Korniloff is doing, or is in a position to do, anything effective. Two days ago came the statement that bis cavalry were 30 miles from Petrograd. If so, they could have covered the distanco in a day under energetic leadership, and it was of paramount importance, from Korniloff's point of view, to seize the capital before it could be properly defended, and silence Kerensky. But the latest report is that they are still at Gatchina, 20 miles south of Petrograd, and the communiques reveal that tho Government party are destroying railways, tearing up the roads, and barricading the streets. Moreover, it is declared that Government troops hold Pskov, midway between the Riga front and Petrograd, and there are rumors of a battle at Luga, between Petrograd and Pskov. This is unconfirmed, however.

Later cables bring a batch of contradictory rumors to the effect that Korniloffs armies are converging upon Petrograd from Moscow, Pskov, ana Narva; that Kerensky is marching with an army to meet them, with General Alexieff as his Chief of the Staff; and that Korniloffs Headquarters have surrendered, and that Korniloff himself has offered to capitulate. But they are obviously untrustworthy. SWAPPING HORSES. The latest will-o'-the-wisp to disappear from the stage as swiftly as he appeared upon it is General Kleinbovsky (or Klembovsky), who has been dismissed; and the latest unknown to flash into tho limelight is a General Boutch Bouyeevitch, ex-Chief of Staff to M. Kerensky. Tho statement that M. Kerensky is equipped with a Chief of the Staff is news, and novel at that. The Chief of the Staff usually serves under the Commander-in-Chief, but M. Kerensky now announces' that he has himself been charged with the chief command of the army. Probably the spelling of General Boutch Bouyeevitch's name will change several times during the next few days, and it may be almost unrecognisable in the cable which announces his dismissal. Certainly ono can sympathise with those Kuban Cossacks who have protested strongly against the incessant changes in the chief commands. If this goes on much longer tho troops at the front will lose all confidence in their leaders. There is an old warning against swapping horses while crossing the stream; but this is being done so frequently in Russia that the generals are becoming a mere series of phantom figures without prestige or authority, a series of puppets who appear and disappear according to the passing whims of those who pull tho wires in Petrograd. WHAT OF HINDENBURG? The Germans claim the repulse of reconnoitring parties between the Baltic and the Dwina, hut admit that their cavalry wdtihdirew south of tho Riga-Vendon road under strong Russian- pressure. From tikis it may bo infeaTed that they are not at present advancing. It may be that Hindenburg was aiming at Riga only, or that he is preparing for a further advance. Tho position from the purely military point of view will bo very tempting to him, but the political consideration.'* are such as will give him pause if he has any insight into them. He has an excellent chance to gain notable tactical successes over the Russians in their present state of disorganisation, but if ho grasps the political factors ho will realise that an advance by him would be the very thing to rescue Russia from her present state of anarchy by bringing the various parties to their senses. The establishment of a vigorous central authority in Russia would soon cause Hindenburg to understand that any tactical successes gained by him had been purchased dearly. Ho might find that he had struck a punching ball which would fly back with a force at least equal to his own blow.

If he decides to advance he has his choice between Reval and Petrograd as his objectives. But he can hardly advance upon ItevaJ unless Petrograd is his ultimate aim. An advance upon Reval would place has left flank in a position which would be dangerously salient in tho event of a Russian counter-offensive, arid it would only bo rendered reasonably safe by an advance to a rino from at least Pskov to Narva. That line secured, his front would be covered by the great lakes Peipus and Pskov, until they freeze over, and, J-n ihe event of a successful Russian adviunoe, opportunity would be obtained to withdraw his loft round the elbow of the Gulf of Riga. But if he goes as far as Reval and Pskov he might as well go on to Petrograd. The sole purpose of occupying Reval is to raise Finland against the Russians, and that would only bo effective if the Finns threatened the Russian capital. The cutting oft' of Russia's supplies by the Archangel and Ekaterina railways, and the seizure of a largo part of her resources would be worth a considerable risk. Yet such an advance will extend Hindenburg's line so enormously as to bring in open warfare once more, and that might prove fatal to him in the event of a Russian recovery. THE MONASTIR FRONT. The Franco-Russians are still advancing on tho Monastir front. They have occupied tho village of Pogradeo, on the shoro of Lake Oohrida, at its southwestern end, and driven the enemy back about three miles beyond the village. They are thua well clear of Lake Malik, and the position in front of them is not without certain strategical opportunities. Lake Ochrida is a very large sheet of water being about 25 miles long by 10 miles wide. It is useful to the enemy in that it covers a considerable portion of their front; but it has the disadvantage that it divides their armies. The Bulgarian forces holding the neck of land about 10 miles wide between Lake Ochrida and Lake Presba are divided, by Lake Ochrida from tho troops holding the Albanian shore of the lake. The French commander, standing at the . south-western

corner of Lako Ochrida, will have- the option of striking along either the Albanian or the eastern shore. He can feini in one direction and strike in the 'other, and the enemy cannot be sure on winch side the blow will fall. So the initiative will give the Allies-an Important advantage in this case, though it is somewhat discounted by_ the natural strength of the enemy positions, which will assist them in holding their ground .between the time when the direction of the allied offensive becomes manifest and the arrival of their reserves. SUBMARINE RETURNS BETTER. There ,ia a distinct improvement in th« submarine returns this week. Italy reports no losses at all, and the French the loss of one vessel over and five under 1,600 tons. The British Admiralty summary shows that we have lost only 12 vessols over 1,600 tons,.as against 20 in the last summary, though we have lost six vessels under that tonnage against three in the last report. The total number of vessels lost is 18 against 23; and the big reduction in the number, of the larger class of ships sunk means a big reduction in the .loss of tonnage. - Moreover, arrivals and departures show a big riso over last week, the totals being respectively 2,744 and 2,868 against 2,384 and 2,432 for the last summary. . The notable thing about the figures has been that a period of rising losses is followed by a period of falling losses, and we may be entering upon one of the falling periods again. In any case, the long nights, short days, and rough weather, which are unfavorable for submarine operations, will soon be at hand in the Northern Hemisphere.