COCKSURENESS

Evening Star, Issue 16351, 17 February 1917, Page 9

COCKSURENESS

TOO MUCH OF 3T.

GERMANY’S RESERVES. THE INVASION BOGY. TO-DAY’S NEWS. [By Ckiticus.] Jhe question now rapidly assuming prominence is that of .Marshal Hindenburg’s intentions,, and whether he will strike ir. order to anticipate our coming offensive. Apparently it is not intended to hurry our own blow, whatever lie may do; and now General Rawlinron. who played a- prominent part in the Somme offensive, has added his note to the chorus of rather cock-sum anticipations. “If it plcaf.es You Hindqnbvyg and his subordinates to ordain a, vain massacre of thousands of men, they are welcome. Wo would not complain. Everything is ready to receive them at .my hour or at any place they choose./ _ Probably General * Nivelle lias massed his reserves at some central point south of the Champagne sector, from which they can readily reinforce cither the Chamimgi’.e, tho Lunv.ino, or the Alsmeo fronts, according to need, while the British can take charge of tho northern sector. But, however tins m.iy bo, it is not surprising that some doubt has hem cast upon the genuineness of tho interview attributed to Sir Douglas Haag in yesterday's cable.-. It is not like Ids usual lone, 'and these assertions as to what we are- going- to do to the enemy presently are now °con ing so thickly that it will be rather a relief if our generals arc given a tactful official hint to talk Jess. It will perhaps be safe enough to crow when wei have won ; but after the Rumanian business few people will tw.it> to hold that our leaders am free from tho danger of miscalculation i and what, a sad spectacle it will make if thsv find that they h.-ivo miscalculated, alter all this CiV.fcsuio talk. G ERA LA NT S R EGER A 7 ES,

Nothing is more astonishing than the precise iux! detailed knowledge which Goiouel Bcpiiigmu always Dossc.ss.es of ilie enemy's strength. In one of yesterday's cables he announced that they hail formed 56 new divisions, which, allowing three brigades to a division, would give JT76 000 men in the lighting lino. That vroi’ki meati that Hindenburg had put practically all his reserves m the line, leaving nothing to replace casualties. It’ has often been pointed out hero that it is possible to use reserves cither to replace casualties nr to xtuse .le.sli to;inations in oilier to gam a temporary superiority in tire fieid.” Tim latter is. quite ;i legitimate noliey, if net carried too lar; but it is very unlikely that Hiudenburg ha? raised new formations on so vast a scale. If lie lias, then Colonel RopingfonT estimate that his power of reinforcing will end about three mouths after the commencement, of hie offensive is not too optimistic. But this appearance of inside knowledge,, while it is very impressive to the man tn the street, is not convincing to those who remember that the French were surprised at Verdun, tire Italians in tile Treninio, the Austrians in Galicia, and the Rurso-Ru-manuins lay the strength of 1i i mien burg's Just offensive. Perhaps, it, is ) ruo that CoTonol Rcpingtou is ixHur informed than'ail the various General Staffs as to the strength and disposition of the opposing p foi :'V'-’s, _ but ,t is by no means probable. the publishing eg these prccXc-ick-

mg figures if, pcriceliy sale, because tnc cannot bn reduted. AXUTHFR. SET.

An equally good and more interesting .set of figures is [lovi.led 1,.v ihe • d-cicn-line American. " ilm invesiigauuns ,x" tlm intelligence lserv.ee o; Give; in.ita.in and France have shown that to date tiermany alone has Esi, a little more than 1,60(J,0ub d-cad ; ami, applying io this hgiii.. thy low ratio of tv.o to 0n,.. 101 . prisoners and those permanently ineapacb latcu by wounds or sickness brings the to_tal_ loss for that country to ” about d.ooU.COO. The strength of 'the German army is known with, a, fairly choc amiIfTT, to 1., a about 5.100,000. of which p,750,000 aro in the Jicid. and 1.250,000 i ll v e. Back of lids army’ of 5,000,000 there is absolutely nothing, for it includes two classes of young men win, Dave been called w the colors b’ef, -h-.;,. time and the Past combings of those) origtuaiA rejerted. if Unx-ie inures aiv s-nind the German ie=ervcs si,, mid he wiped out within a, verv few months of the opening of the big contest this soring. But they are not guaranteed. They am. arrived at by simple processes of arithmetic open to everyone, but verv liable to error, because of the absence of iull and .reliable data. The reader .should be. ware of attaching an excessive iiuftortancc to trim rows nj ligurcs merely because they are compiled by well-known “ authorities ’ or journals. THE IXVAMOX BOGY,

Colored Hephigtmffi ial.st f -,, 1v j„ strategy is his insistence upon the ue<e---sity ot maintaining micux forces at Home, ou-ing to the likelihood ties! Von Hiiukmburg will isuriiice die German lieet in

securing temporary command of vh.. Hughsh Channel in order to iiivade England. Ihis hj t worthy of his theory, developed before tile attack on Rumania* commoiued, that Hindeuburg’s comitor-stroke would be delivered i-owards Kovel, a poim, where it would have been absMiuely wasted ; of his warning, after ihat'afouk had he-. gun. that we siiovhl beware of damim- to 1 lindenhurg’s tunc, which was. a var-ue hint that Russia should hesitate bciorsending her forces to the Rumanian fronts to meet him, the slop anyone' with an insight into strategy could ,ec was ,lu> oulv sane course of action. The danger (l f invasion by Himlenburg is about as rcrnoto as the probability of a collision between this earth and' one of the siars io dcrain large bodies of troops m oide-r to guard again,;. trivial danger would bo merely to nlav- into Mindenbnrg's hands. ‘ * y Tho British battle fleet up in the North of .Scotland is about 400 miles awav from the- most likely point of landing T, u the east coast. Hindcnbiirgs llect wtmld have 200 miles to travel it it came from the German shore, and it ,o„ld hardly cm.hj from the. Belgian, bcciuisc the n.i. - shippiiig would not he available thVrn Probably the huge fleet of warships and transports would, be discovered before it u-as far from its ports; hut we will suppose that it actually reached the English coast- unobserved. The news would’ be Unshed to Admiral Beatty at once, and ids Dreadnought. Heel could he down upon the spot and across the enemy's lioo of retreat within 20 hours. What .sort of au army could he landed in that time? The attempt would merely result, in the 'destruction of fleet, transports, and army. If any German army got. ashore it would lie readily dealt* with bv the huge lorees which are under training cm’ Saifsbury Plain and elsewhere, if the.vc arc intelligently distributed. When troous arfully trained they should not be detained at Home to hold oil such a logy. Hindenburg hr,, no armies to throw* Ivwav.* AUTOMATIC BOMBS. According to 1,1. Raymond Lcstounar. writing in the French journal ‘ J/iilustratiou,’ our destroyers and patrol boats use against the submarines a powerful grenade’, which works cut cun .'ideally by contact with the water and explodes at a pro-arranged depth. _ "The grenade lias au explosive' area, of 25 yards, the force of th-s explosion being sufficient to twist the hull plates of the .submarines." It j* of interest to recall that about, the lirst proposal for dealing with submarines when they were just becoming formidable was by the use of a spar torpedo—a sort of bomb- at the end of a long spar—which was to be thrust into the water near the submarine by a very swift torpedo bo->t and then exploded. It was claimed that the results would be very siuii lar to those asserted to ,oliow the use of tho automatic grenades. Obviously the difficulty in the use of such weapons is to find the 1

submarines. They usually sink to the 1 bottom and remain quiescent when hard pressed. If some method of detecting them when lying on tho sea bottom is available, the grenades could bo relied upon for the rest. Curiously enough; it was asserted in that eaine journal— L’Tllustration ’ —some weeks ago that the work of finding the U boats fell cliieily to our own submarines. “This task of’detective belongs principally to the submarines. They are aided, counselled, escorted. _by the destroyers, which, at the least signal, launch themselves like greyhounds, and bound from wave to wave to fall upon the enemy, put them to flight, and oblige ‘them to gain their lairs under the. slieller of the rock of Heligoland.” Their method is not explained, ■hut the rounded 4iud liollow hull of a submarine makes a wonderfully fine sounding board tor catching the vibrations tiio enemy's: machinery, and jierhups that plays a part-. Otherwise they'would seem the least suitable of all vessels for the work. WITHIN THE BARRIERS. Mr A. L. l ogo calls attention to a paragraph which appeared in last .night's ‘Star’ under tho heading 'Personal/ It stated that Mr John A. Henry, of Redan k alley. \\ yudnevm, lias received advice that his brother, the skipper of the steamer Skerries, lost Iris life on November 6 last, when his vessel was torpedoed off the Isle °f Man, in toe Irish Rea. Mr Fogo points out that the Isle of Man is close to Liverpool, and within the nets stretched between the Midi of Kintyrc and the. Irish contt to the north, and lv?twccu tho Irish and Welsh coasts to tho south. This appears to tniuly that- si:bni.utines are, or were, operating in tho Irish Sea. More probably mere has b-cu some mistake in tlio point v.hcro tho torpedoing took place, or the vessel may have struck a drifting mine. 1/ is nob impossible that a sulm marine might force its way in, but it is ooubttul il it would got- out again. In any ease, iff. success would lead to the strengthening of the harriers, and, as the incident occurred over three months ago, there is little likelihood that submarines are now operating in the Irish Sea. THE NEWS. _ There is nothing beyond ;ho usual string of small incidents ami gossip. Tim Ifft of sinkings is snort. America is reported to lie peremptorily demanding the release of tho Vhmwdnle’s crew, hut if a refusal is to he followed by nothing bevoml an attitude of dignified iuciieci.iveaess, it does not appear that the “ perempl-oty demand ” will serve any useful pnrpoEe. Tito smaller neutrals are apparent)'.- recovering their nerve, as Danish. Norwegian, and Swedish ships are resuming their departures from New York. In tho Balkans the Italians have now recovered the- whole of

Mii! 1 ,000. IVtrogrnd reports a battle south-east oi Zlolczow, where the enemy are attacking; while from the west front only iviici:'. ami bombardment s are reported ; lint the spring jliaw has set in. !• rorn South America comes (he as yet unconurmcd i-'tateincnt that Micro has been a light between a British erniser ami Gc-r----mnu raider:-, and that one raider was sunk.