WHAT WILE HAPPEN IN GERMANY?

Evening Star, Issue 16351, 17 February 1917, Page 2

WHAT WILE HAPPEN IN GERMANY?

At the -beginning of the present war n question that was often seriously discussed was : " Will the German people revolt against their Government?” We hoped that- they would, but so far the German people- have been submissive and docile. A leoent writer ’in tho ‘Fortnightly Review ’ has discussed very interestingly the pros and cons of this question, and ho maintains that it is more than probable that history will repeat itself in. Germany, and that before long there will bo a civil war, similar to that of 1848. This writer anticipates the expulsion of the Hohenzollerns and the establishment of a great German Republic. It is not at all surprising that tho German people have been slow to move? EvenGerman child receives from the ienderest age an education in patriotism which, is quite unique. As Professor G. T. Sadd puts it in the ‘Hibbcrt Journal’: “He can scarcely more than lisp before he begins singing military songs and playing the _ game with skilfully-prepared toys.” His first reading books' exalt the military virtues, and describe death for tlie Fatherland as a most desirable and glorious fate. Ho is early taught to venerate his Sovereign ; patriotism is put before religion. The child is taught to regard the military officer as above the priest, politician, scientist, and merchant. J.he young German is trained to übev uuq’iestioningiy military commands and administrative orders. People who ha-ve passed through the German educational machine, have been firmly moulded for life. - hey may be Radicals or Socialists iu theory, but they arc patriotic Germans in practice. Some people consider the '.unman people, so politically' unripe and submissive, so severely disciplined, that they will patiently submit to their niters, -nd Glut thus no great constitutional change cun take place in Germany. The writer in the ‘ Fortnight];,' Review’ reminds us that history shows that revolutions do not spring jrom political or economic motives, but generally from both combined. People are willing to stand mis-gov-enimcnt at one time, and they will endure hunger at another time, but they 7 I lo ', patiently both combined, he failure of the harvest coinciding with political oppression precipitated the. great French Revolution of 1789, and alsif the later revolutions of 1830 and 1848. Many otlicr revolutions have been caused sinfijaiiy. Jhe German people have stood defeat 111 the past, and they have endured starvation : but will they remain patient and obedient when they suffer both simultaneously 9 Is it, not more witelv that they will awaken to the fact that, their Government have recklessly brought these visitations upon them?

Is it likely that the middle c ] ass j n Germany, which, vies with the aristociatie ami military party m patriotism, and which knows that ’■'Germhuv willed the war.’’ will remain abjectly 'loyal to the Emperor and his Government when they see ruin staring them in the fare, and when they foresee the destruction of their great commercial industrial enterprises which they created hv decades of labor?

it seems quite certain that the food stocks of Germany are quite insufficient. The want of labor and a, scarcity of manure (which before tho war was largelv imported) have reduced the produce of Heir harvests. Sumo supplies have been secured in Rumania, but tlie German potaio crop was a comparative failure.

If we look back over historv, wc see that tlie. success of a revolt depends on the classes rather than on the masses. A rebellion attempted by the masses alone is foredoomed to failure. In. th-? great French Revolution the Liberal middle classes provided the intelligence, the initiative, and the money. In Germany all the- non-Sociulist- parties are OovcrnVr.ent parties. They are the Conservative.

Ontro, and Liberal parties. The Conservatives represent the nubility, the ir.iiiLny, and agriculture 3 the Centre , the Roman Catliolhs 5 tho Liberals represent commerce. trade, and manufactures. It ns in ‘he Liberal camp that the Serial Democrats will look tor leadership. During recent years the German Liberals, Xmmeriy what we- would cal! Radicals, have been only nominally Liberal in principle. Liming the present Kaiser's reign they have been as micros:ed in imperialism and expansion as the military party. The large ironmasters, coal masters, and shinping masters hoped ior a vielorous war. and looked forward to tho ncquisitnti of the cdal and non fields of Daighnn and also of Northern Franco, Germany’s industrial development- had created a- new class uf Liberals, termed “ chimneybarons" (die Schlotbarnncl, who hj ned to monopolise, the- iron and steel industry or Europe. It should be remembered that the smaller men, the rank and file of the Liberal party, have retained (heir Liberal principles. Probably the 'nigger men, s ho " chimney barons,” and the snippim; magnates may bethink themselves of their Libera! principles, which they still profess in theory, when bankruptcy and poverty overtake them in consequence of a discslions war. In tiie first half of the nineteenth c.muii'y the German Liberals were truly democratic, and wore the champions ui popular rights. In ldaß, under the simultaneous pressure of tyranny and dis tress caused by bad harvests, the masses rose- in revolt under the leadership «'f the Liberal middle classes. Wc consider it is quite like ly that history will 1 epeat ilsoif. A rising of the masses alone would be p-enectly useless, and would simply degenerate into a mob riot, fur the army would not hesitate to turn the machine guns on the working classes. If, however, tihe people were led by Liberal leaders' eminent men and some of the largest- tax payers in the country, it is not liktdv that such drastic methods of suppression would bo used oven in autocratic Germany. There is no doubt that- the Social Democrat party is tho strongest numerically. In 1871 they polled 101,000 votes, in 1837 (t.’ic year before the Kaiser's accession) 763,000, and in 1912 no less than 4,250.000 votes. It should bo remembered, In, \vevor, that the Social Democrats are the only Opposition, party in Germany, and that many of these votes represent simply a

protest against ollicia.l domination, against absolutism, mid deiiicatiou <»t tho Emperor, with veneration of the military officer, and also against tho brutality oi the drill sergeant. It has been noted that every abuse of military authority, such as'the Zabrrn affair, loads to an increase of -ho Social Democrat vole. It is also tn:o that before the war there was increasing dissatisfaction with, the absolute rule oTthc Emperor among the non-Socialist sections, particularly tho Liberals. It is quite, true that all Germany went to rear with enthusiasm, and that tho war apparently made, Germany a united nation. That'unitv, we are told, is now disappearing; it is not now duo to enthusiasm, but only" fear. Disappointment at the iailurc oi I he war is producinnpopular discontent, which is stilled be the army nod the police. Millions now know the truth about tho war. and curse the Emperor inwardly, though thev fear to speak out. Everyone -; s afraid t<> lake the initiative, and protest against the. sufferings which the Kaiser lias inflicted on Ins i-eop'o. Go-many has been compared to a gigantic boiler, on which, the pressure from within is increasing day by day. To the uninitiated it seems perfectly* safe; there is no outward evidence of increasing pressure, because all the safety valves have been tightly screwed down.' 2Ccverthd??.-. this course only makes the final explosion all the. more likely. It .should also he remembered that the* Germans are by nature, democratic, hut have allowed themselves to become, .strictly disciplined by the. Hohe/izollerns, They have submitted to them because their nde has been .successful, p,ut we also believe that they will revolt if they ruin the country. Relore Jong Germany will become not even a limited monarchy, but a Republic the Tlohcnzolierns will be. expelled.