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[Per United Press Association.j j WBLLI.NGTOX, January 8. Advice has been rereived by the .Defence ]Jepartment of the, death of George Vamlergeuff Bnrlinson, who was attached to tho "Wellington Regiment of Mounted Rifles with the main Expedition.ary Force al Cairo, Egypt. Death was due to septic poisoning, the result of a full from a, horse. His father is Major Bnrlinson, officer in charge of the Wera-roa Training School, Levin. [.Major Bnrlinson was for years in charge of the- Industrial School at- (‘averaham. The deceased was his eldest- son, and was educated in Dunedin.] HOW LONG WILL THE AVAR LAST! TWO MILITARY OPINIONS. A high French military authority has given expression to the. following shews respecting the probable duration of the war: His estimate is based on the belief that the Germans will commit no great tactical error. lie divides the wa.r into six periods—two past, one present, and three to tome. The first, period was the advance through Belgium into, France. The second period "was the battle, of the Marne and the Gorman retreat to the Aisne. The third period is that of the fighting on the Aisne.. -continuing and developing into the battle for Calais. The fourth period will be a German retreat and a battle on the Meuse. The fifth period will be a further retreat and a battle on the Rhine. The sixth period will be the march to Berlin. .He estimates that the battle for Calais will not completely end before tho beginning of December. He assigns a period of five months to tho hattlo of tlie Meuse—the end of April or tho beginning of May, 1915. Tho campaign on the Rhino should last nearly twice as long—-that is to say, until February. 1916. The final march to Berlin and negotiations for peace should bring tho war to an end will) the final witKdra.wal of the Allied armies of occupation in 1917. This estimate gives a total period of rather less than three years to the war. It is presumed by tho same high military authority that the Russian advance will occupy a .similar period, and that only tho steady combined pressure of tho Alims can bring mailers to a. conclusion within the period suggested. He assumes that, the German forces will withdraw steadily, and that there will bo no sudoru collapse of either front. Tin? ‘Eu.sski Invalid.’ the organ of tho Russian Ministry of War. is very optimistic concerning the progress of the. campaign. It thu.ks that the operations aga-msb Austria will re crowned with a final success before tho winter sets in. The campaign against Germany is a more serious matter, and the operations will probably last all through the winter. It is. however, considered probable that tho German army will be finally defeated before nest summer. Therefore, declares the '-Husski .Invalid,' it no unforeseen complications arrive, it- is probable that the * war will end before the anniversary of its beginning (By Lovai Fraser, in the 'Daily .Mail.) 'The failure of the German attack upon Russia means that, if tlie, Germans cannot now succeed in Belgium they will have tailed everywhere, immense, issues therefore hang upon the terrific conflict still preceding around Vprr-s and around La Ba.sscc, for it represents Germany.s last hrpo. Victory for the Allies now means that the Germans can never hope to win. When once that situation is firmly and cleariv established anything may follow. In the last resort we have to deal not only with the Prussian madmen and dreamer* who wickedly began this wav, but. Avith tin' 60 million of Gormans who have been deceived. 1 hey were led to expect victory anywhere within three months. They arc still misfed by lying bulletins. They see the interminable trainloads of wounded corning bach, they see the endless lists of their dead, but" still their credulity is so unfathomable that they are duped into the belief that triumph may be at hand. A withdrawal from the present German line, in Belgium, coupled with the Russian advance to their eastern frontier, will assuredly awaken them from their dreams. They will feel like a man who has stumbled into ice-cold water and come, up gasping. 1 am well .aware of all eve have been told about the inflexible unity of purpose of tho German people. I know all about “ tho last breath of man and horse,” and arming the cats and dogs, and the rest of it. But I think I know something of human nature, too, and it is not even in German human nature to go on fighting for years in a Avar in which by no possible exertion can victory be attained. And if the. German people, could be persuaded to go on fighting lor an indefinite period in a perfectly hopeless Avar, then the handful of men who control German policy would not let them do it. The essential principle of German diplomacy for many years has been instantly to cut the losses after a definite failure. Time after time we have seen this policy pursued, end T believe it will be. tried now. The Kaiser may delay the process at first if he has any fears for his dynasty, but. I feel convinced that the moment the German Staff finally admit that they cannot advance any more in Belgium 1110 German Government will immediately endeavor to cut their losses. If the Russian menace compels them to withdraw good troops from the western theatre they may begin the game to-morrow. Their alleged overtures to France and Bus sia. even suggest that they have begun already. —The Flaming Heart of Germany.— Some -people tell m that we do not understand tlie intensity of conviction which ha« set the hearts of the German race aflame, and that wo must not count upon any weakening of their purpose. I do not count upon it. for it, would bn foolish to do so. We ought to press forward our preparations exactly ns though avo expected a three year.; Avar, mid it is quite possible that three, years hence we may still be fighting. But I think we understand the flaming heart of Germany very well, and know precisely what its onviction amounts to. With all their banning and their bluffing, their science a,-d their machinery and their gun? and tk '.ir text-books, the Germans are like, a pa, k of children. Their wild and emotios al outburst- of hatred against England is ’.sentially infantile, and will spend itself like a "child’s, passion. We do not even take the trouble to hate the Gormans. and, on the whole, are rather inclined to laugh at them, save when some special.y monstrous outrage moves us to wrath. * Our object is to bring them to their senses, to compel them to atone for their crimes, and to leave them a sober and disillusioned nation, purged of hysteria and inflated pride. We have too long made tho mistake of taking them at their own valuation, but their bluff no longer deludes us. Tho swarms of citizens of Dusseldort who ran whimpering to tho

general about a single, British bomb, the crowds of refugees who flocked from the eastern provinces into Berlin at the first breath of invasion, an l these a of conquerors ? I do not think so, and I believe that when once the German nation, which is not very receptive of external impressions, fully grasps the fact that it cannot possibly'win we shall see somo strange happenings We have received from L.D.B. 5s for the Belgian fund, proceeds of the sale of a cake.

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DIED IN EGYPT., Issue 15695, 8 January 1915

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DIED IN EGYPT. Issue 15695, 8 January 1915

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