Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
Article image
This article displays in one automatically-generated column. View the full page to see article in its original form.

ELECTION PROSPECTS

THE OUTLOOK FOR THUBSDAY

VROM THE LIBERAL VIEWPOINT

WHAT OUR SPECIALS SAY,

{Bt TiLßcaApn.i

THE PROBLEM IN AUCKLAND

LIBERALS OAINIXO GROUND.

-■FOUR SUCCESSES PROBABLI-

He would be bold indeed who would claim to be able tosortout tho political possibilities of the present position in Auckland with any definite degree of accuracy. If from the very nature of political contests it is justifiable to make reasonable reservations for unforeseen contingencies, on the general principle that you never can tell until *ho tiumbeni go up*, one must ask for such consideration "at this time, as never before. in an attempt to anticipate tho probable results of the politu.il strength in the North. It nuwt be understood, in the first place, that the game is not being played with all the bails on the table. If all tho influences that are obviously in sight aro the only influences to be considered, then one might say that Sir Joseph Ward will finish up the campaign with four votes more from Auckland province than he at present may number in his parliamentary nackin?. In any honest attempt that is made to present* the values of the rival parties there is always, however, the uncomfortable insecurity that no barometer has been produced to* show any movement in the still deeper forces that have never really been stirred by the election meetings.* Three years ago. fium .Auckland to the Bluff, there were unmii-takablv signs of the reaction that had set in against tho Liberal Cabinet, if not against the Liberal party themselves. Then th* Prime Minister had the experience of seeing a jeering crowd swaying up and down the railway station of *his own electoral centre as his train pulled out. To-day the present Prime Minister has to face jeering crowds, or. to be strictly accurate, crowds that contain a large proportion of people whose mood is to jeer. This is not so in the country ventres, but it is the invariable experience in the city and suburban meetings. The Leader of the Opposition haft bsen given at such gatherings receptions that, were one to go no further, he might «iv that the Liberal Leader had been completely restored to his former position in the esteem and popularity of the electors. ?nch an assumption could not, however, ae deemed to be unassailable. As to the "silent voters," the indefinable something that is lurking beneath the rippled eurfaco of the political waters. one is at a loss to estimate the probabilities. The man or woman whose political value we are trying to gauge must be a sort of person who docs not say much. Notwithstanding the frequently expressed belief and the very genuine attitude of confidence of friend's of the Liberal party that the Liberal tide will rise at the poil at this election, an independent assessment of all the influences at work suggests rather that the great silent vote wiil go largely towards leaving things as they are. There is abroad a distinctly sympathetic feeling that the Prime Minister (Mr Mas-f-rrl has bad a hard tow to hoe. that he has had a run of exceptionally bad luck, and that another term of office is due as a consolation prize for a man who is pevson-i-riv very popular indeed, thoueh few claim for him anv decree of pcliteal originality. The forces compared, it is perfectly certain tint the (Tivrmment party will not win any scat at present held by the Liberals anv where in the Auckland province. Si.ch changes as there arc. in this part of the North Island at all events, must be in the* direction of a change/ of support fs-rm Mas soy to Ward.

Taking the 20 scats in the Auckland Province, from the Bay of Islunds to j ftishnrne and Tarmiarnnui. 14 are at present held by supporters of the GovernmT.t and six by the Opposition. Tire | six electoral"* which h:fp been represented by supporters of the Liberal { leader aro Auckland Central. Auckland \ East. Grey Lynn. Ohinemiui. Bay of I Plenty, and Gisborne. The only seat of this J Literal sjronp which is jeopardierd to any extent is Grey Lynn, where the Hon. Geo Fowlds and Mr John Payne split the Opposition vote. Mr Murdoch M"Lean's claims for political recognition have net. however, revealed anv outstanding feature that make his tiiances any brighter than thev were or. any previous occasion. The outside feling is that Mr Payne will be returned, but Mr Fowlds has certainly made very great headway. —Probable Changes.— Taking everything into consideration, it is reasonable to believe that there is every Dhance of Mr E. C. Purdie wirning the Marsden scat from Mr F. Mander. Mr Pnrdie. who now follows commercial pur«uits and ir. closely associated with the lif.i of the electorate, has a distinguished reford as a schoolmaster and a school Nwcher, and is a useful ai.-d practical member of the Education Reard. He has made great headway, and it is felt that the party influence will hardly cam' Mr Marnier to the poll ahead of him. * Mr C. 11. Poole's chances against Mr J. H. Bradney in Auckland West avi* regarded as particularly bright. Mr Bradney has stumbled vaguely along in the wake -of his more experienced opp ment, and has made no more friends on his own acmvnt. Mt E. H. A. Taylor \s quite confidently expected to regain tiie Thames seat from. Mr T. H. IMiaies. At no stage during the campaign has there been the slightest indication of anything that would justify any belief to the contrary. The same confidence i 3 held concerning the prospec-s of the candidature of Mr W. T. Jsnnings against Mr C. K. AVileon in Taumaruntti Th? patty supporters of Mr AVibon, who deemed it unwise to change their official candidate (though the point was a-: riously considered), are openly despondent about retaining the seat. —Other Electorates.— Though frequent aud sanguine reports come t<> hand concerning Dr Buck's pursuit of t':.> suffrages in tii'J Bay of Inlands, Mr George Wilkinson is generally the popular selection, though the considerable f.'H.-.M-iiv/ .st : ll loyal to Mr Vernon Reed iiiiv help Dr Buck's candidature in the rare first past the post. Mr Gordon C'oates, Mr F. H. Lang, MrHarris, the Prime Minister, Mr C. J." Parr ,'". i Krlen). Mr R- F. Bollard (Raglan), Mr J. _\. Young (Waikato), and the Hon. W. H. a:e all regarded as having chances of retaining their respective fat- than Liberal "orpr.ntnts. With mgy.rd t-« Mr Bollard, however, it is •' •.—>-rl that Uuntly put him in and that fiur.t'y ".ill nut him out again. Trf*d!-or«auisation of the Liberal forces in Ed-u and io Parnell i.- felt by judicious i, : Un! pavtisa.is t-.> be fatal to the chances of v:ci'iri°s in those electorates, where i!;-> intli!"nc? of the Reform party is certainly no weakrr than it was three years -.■'•ii.-ne Other Considerations.— N'.. .vrierr of the political campaign ill the At'ckland province is complete with-i.-.tt ■••l'.me lefcrenc-' 1 to the inextricable conf•■••; >n of interes* that has b:en caused by tli<» proirinenee to the licensing qup.ti'U. In ihe general effect, however, :! is not bel'evpd that this will split th* poliMer?! vott-s to such an extent as to *!r<rt the nsws so far' as tha xetum of i ".iididau-s is concerned. The main point !r> cause doubt is whether the individual T.'.hera! vote in Waitemata and Parnell. With suburban electorates, will make for fnrtlwr victories for Sir Joseph Waul otlvafr tfcan those already suggested. Waitemria, however, has years of Con-ei-rratiro tendency U> be broken down, and the task i* a formidable cne, even for a candidate of Mr C H. T«waley'» outatandina ability. Parnell waa a Liberal stronghold for 20 yean under Mr Prank Lawry, but now it is a political puzzle of an exceedingly complicated character. Mr J. J. Sullivan may, as Ms many admirers believe, prove to be the man of the hour, but it i» feared that the epithet of the- " Impassioned Irishman,** that haa been applied to him, is accepted in many quarters with tolerance ratfecr than with confidence ,

IN TARANAKI.

Interest in the General Election has increased to a groat extonfc during the last fortnight, ana tho outlook io somewhat altered. As I stated on Friday last, a close Tim is expected at Patea, which should have been a safe Government seat. The Prime Minister was a*ked to corne and give a hand, and Liberals intended bringing cither Sir J. G. Ward or Mr Wiliord to reply to him. It was considered, however, moro advisable to leave Mr Pearcc to fight it out himself. Both sides are now very sanguine. If Hawea will stand by the" Opposition candidate ho may get. in. but I think that when the numbers are up it will be found that tho Government candidate will head the poll with a small majority. Egmont wiil be retained bv Mr Wilkinson, as will also Stratford by Mr ITine, both being Government scats. The contest fur Taumarunui lias been a hard but quiet one. The old war horse, in the person of Mr W. T. Jennings, is considered a certainty by tho.-o in the know. Ho would win easily in a straight run. but with a third candidate in the field 1 give him a good majority.

Perhaps the greatest change of opinion in any electorate in this provincial district has been in Tarauaki. A short time ago it was considered as good as a walk over for the Government candidate, but his opponent (Mr Hughes) has been gradually gaining in favor, and last Friday, wh'en Mr Wilford stood on his platform, one of the best receptions given to any candidate was received bv Mr Hughes. In the old davs Mr E. M. Smith had to get a majority of' 6CO in New Plymouth before he could win; now it ir, estimated that if the Liberal candidate can get a majority of 400 in the town tho seat is his. 1 think, however, that his mpporters are too sanguine, and I place Mr Okey-in the lend by a fair majority.

THE WELLINGTON SEATS

Judging from the remarks, the- prophecies, and the beta (though these are illegal), Wellington and Suburbs and the Hutt electorates arc for the time being camped on the edge of a. political volcano, or. preferably, dancing on a tight-rope, with tho certainty of falling, hut with no certainty as to "whether they will fall this side or that. Descending to particulars, it mav be taken for cranted that the Hon. A." L. Herdman is absolutely safe for Wellington North. As a Minister he has shown great determination and perspicacity, and an ability to forget cleanly and openly (though he has .1 heavy"political punch in cither hand when it is wanted), that lias made him few enemies and a host of friends. The women particularly shadow him wherever hegoes, and are canvassing hard. Against him on the Liberal side is Mr W. H. Turnbull, a mere political figure-head, whose range of political knowledge restricts him to a halfhour's speech, and whoso only claim to the support of the masses is that he has always voted for the Liberal party, and that his wife, a member of the big Johnston family, -who always voted against Seddon and Co., is a Catholic. Rut as Mr Herdman and himself are both out against the Bible in State Schools League, his chances of support on the sectarian issue alone are not very great. His personal following is a negligible quantity. Mr Holland, who was sent to gaol for sedition during the strike, and released when Avar broke out. is the tertium quid. He i 3 an out-and-out Democrat, and will poll freely. Mr Herdman's chief weakness is the Public Service vote, but that will not be enough to keep him out. Ho is regarded as a certainty. There is another seat which may with almost absolute confidence be placed in the same categorv—Wellington .Mr R. A. Wright was three years ago displaced by Mr Hindmarsh for Suburbs. Mr Wright is on a real good wicket, lie has opcoscd to him a Liberal candidate (Mr J.*E. Fitzgerald) and a Labor candidate (Mr F. T. Moore). Until of these aro so determined to bo at the other, relying on their innate strength, not to speak of' their self-esteem and recklessness of parts- considerations, that iliey prefer la see Mr Wright head the poll rather than accede to the urgent request of Sir Joseph Ward that one or the other should rcttre. The Suburbs, therefore, goes to the Government, in spite of the generally-ex-pressed belief that cither Mr l'itzgerald or Mr Moore could "" knock him into a cocked hat" in a single-handed contest. Thf next seat that may be regarded as a practical certainty is that of Wellington South. There the* late member. Mr A. H. Hindmarsh. who represents Labor, ;s opposed by Mr J. P. Luke and Mr 11. IV Williams. * Despite his extreme, views on Labor matters, and despite his violent, even occasionally bizarre, methods when speaking in or out of tin- House, the pubhe have at last realised that Mr Hindmarsh is a man of probity, perspicacity, and honesty, and he has a big solid following. Hi's rirst opponent is Mr J. P. Luke, who has already represented the city in Parliament, ami who is now, and has been for three year?. Mayor of Wellington He entered Parliament as a Liberal, under Sir J. Ward. His brother, Mr U. M. Luke, sat in the Legislative Council for seven years under the Liberal banner, but his time wa-s up when Mr Massey assumed the reins of office, and he was not rea( puinte.l. Meanwhile. however. Mr .1. P. Luke thought ho roiild do Utter as a Reform candidate. and *n ho is standing for ltelorm. and a pretty bat! timv ha is havir-.i? of it. Mr K. 15. Williams, wlv.i has a lit-ad \ u.ut-:'Me/i I lie Suburlii in the Massey lntcre.-t. i> stantlinr; "en his own'" as « Masseyiti-. with strong leanings towards the Bible-iu-Selinola League. lie won't set very much .support even from that body. Mr Luk'V- shittiness v. ill be of no use to him. and Mr lliudmarsh will win easilv.

It is not so easy t«. talk about Wellinglon Centra! and VVclliugton J-"a«st, in both cf which cases there is a- straight-out contest. In Centra! the Hon. F. M. B. Fisher is airairi.st Mr Robert Fletcher who beat him on the lirst ballot last election, and was "pasted out" on the second ballot despite the law which Mr Fisher himself got through the. House intended to prevent reamen combining to concentrate liii'ir votes in any one ♦doctorate. Some 600 soanwn have so fr.r hie.: i-n:idled without challenge in the Centra! -electorate. end il may be roasmiabiv ju-.-'sutiH-il tiiat they will vote to a man against Mr Fisher, if only for his action as Minister of Marino during the strike in hu.s|iin-diug the Shippiiijr and Seamen Act and ship*.to sea manned contrary to ih< v wisher- of the seamen and their fiiends. He h::.s had a particularly bad ""run" at nearly all hi? meetings, evei: t-j the e.\t-;-nt of being threatened with personal violence, and his position on paper is somewhat pw'ario«s. Avtainrt that, however, it has to be remembered that whenever .-fttacked on the platform ho has given knock f>r knock. Tie bar, declared time and time again that what he did was doiK- in the best interests of the .Dominion, and that he would do it again if necessary, and a!! the while ho his working lor him a big. solid, wellorganised committee of sound, thoughtful eitz-ens, who are leaving no stone unturned to ensure bis election. On the other hand, Mr Fletcher is not- much good as a platfotm speaker. He does not make the best nse oi his material; and though popular it: a public pense does 'nut appear to have behind him the soliii silent majority which on such occasions is so important a determining factor. It's no prophesying in such a case, but writing for the moment almost against one's own judgment, I believe that Mr Fisher will get home again. If Mir Fletcher wins he wiil be tho hero, not of the city, but of the Dominion. The contest in Wellington East- between Dr Newman and Mr D. M'Laran, Government v Labor, has proceeded very quietly. The latest tip is that •"Dave" M'l/aren trill win. Personally 1 am against the idMu I think lh« litU« doctor will bo returned, though perhaps with only a few vote* to spar».

I refuse to forecast the Hutt seat. Mr Albert Samuel, the vigorous Reform candidate, is giviug Mr "Tom" Wilford the time of his life. This is Mr Samuel's first entrance into th© political arena, and although he has done marvellously well, it scarcely seems possible that he can oust the old campaigner, who was bred and born in the constituency. But he won't be .fax off.

IN MARLBOROUGH.

Mr John Duncan snoke in Blenheim on Monday and received a fjaod hearing. Mr George Turner, who is sometimes called " G'obo," is the third nominee for Wairau. His one battery is his children's pension scheme, which he declares is deskeep the cradles full. His candidature, however, is not taken seriously, it being an odds on chance that he will lose his deposit. In that portion of Marlborough which is comprised in the Nelson electorate (the Alsace-Lorraine of Wairau) Mr Atmorc seems strongly favored, but I cannot say what his chances are in Nelson proper, but from what I hear I think ho will go back. Three years ago I prophesied to within a few of the actual result hero in Wairau, and I will make another venture on this occasion—viz., that Mr M'Callum will go back with 200 votes to spare. Although the three candidates will go to the poll, it cannot he called a triangular contest, and tiio Labor vote (a not inconsiderable percentage) will go en block to the Wardite (Mr M'Callum). Wo have a big fanning vote, and Mr Duncan will score heavily amongst the " eockies," but the farm employees—the shepherds, muste'rers, etc.—will more than counterbalance this. Mr M'Callum, however, will miss the 'I co-operators" on the main northern lino, who stood solidly for him three years ago.

Regarding the Prohibition issue, there will hot be any serious chance of Wairau going ''dry," since its prosperity depends upon the carrying of Continuance. A farming community like ours Will not allow enthusiasts to tear holes in the pockets of the producers.

THE WEST COAST.

I sec no reason whatever for amending my previous forecast. Thanks to a block vote from the miners' lodges, Mr Webb wiil hold the Grey seat, with the prospect of an incicased majority, while Mr T. Y. Seddon has a genuine "cake walk" for Westlatid.

NORTH CANTERBURY.

Tho near approach of polling day makes it comparatively easy to revise the situation as far as "the northern part of the province is concerned. Here are my anticipations with regard to the city and suburban seats:

In Kaiapoi the situation has been complicated by the illness of the Hon. D. Bucido, who is opposed by Mr D. Jones, who retired from the position of organiser to the Reform party to contest the scat. In Mr Buddo's absence and before Parliament rose Mr Jones was making fair headway in the constituency, but several of Mr Ruddo's fellow-members held meetings iti his favor, and refuted so many of Mr Jones's misstatements that the tide appears to have turned, and I confidently expect to see the old horse back in his place. The retirement of Mr T. H. Davey from the contest for Christchurch East lias complicated matters, and the candidates now in the lield are Mr 0. D. Macfarlane, quite a novice in politics, who was brought out in the Reform interest at the last minute; Dr Thackcr, who announces himself as an Independent Liberal ; and Mr H. Hunter, a Social Democrat, and secretary to several trade unions. The bieezy doctor does not improve his chances by his addresses, and Jn many quarters is not taken seriously. Mr Hunter, on the ether hand, is gaining ground, and t-liould give a good account of himtelf. On the whole. lam inclined to think that the doctor with a better organisation than ho had lan time, may just scrape past the po.-t. Considerable interest is taken in the contest for Chiifitthurch Xorth, and the Reform party are using every endeavor to defeat Mr Isitt. Mr Petheriek has pulled cut, leaving a tstraight-out fieht on the present occasion between Mr Isitt and Mr Toogood. who some years ago stood as a Social Democrat. Such a thamelion-like change is not likely to inspire the confidence of the. electors, and although the IV* formers proclaim loudly their certaintv to win. I do not pee any chance of Mr Isitt being unseated. The Reform Press are certainly denouncing him to their utmost extent, but I think this will do him more good than harm. In Lvttelton Mr M'Combs (Social Democrat) is* again opposed by Mr M. J. Miller, who stood in the Reform interest at the bv-clection caused by the death of Mr G. Lauren=on. T expect the positions to be about the same as in December la-l. as the roll is a much heavier one. the increase being in the more cicely working vu-"'-centre of Woolston and Heathcote Vail' ' • In ChrKchurch South Mr CI. Ell is a;,-:, -. opposed bv Mr ft. R. Whiting (Social Democrat), as well as by Mr F. R. Hughes, a Travelling photographer, whom the Reform party have selecfcd to carry their banner. Mr Kll has worked conscientiously for his district, and I fail to see where he has lost ground, and I do not think that Mr Whiti;ir has meanwhile improved his position. Mr Hughes is not likely to take votes from cither of the other candidates, and therefore 1 give him no chance at all, especially as he is absolutely ignorant of politics. Avon will proved a much more intercsting contest, as the Reform party have chosen a reallv s-linng man in Mr H. D. Acland to oppose Mr G. W. Russell. Mr !>. It. Sullivan, one of the most levelheaded of the Social Democrats, is also a candidate. It will !>e remembered that at the last election Mr Sullivan opposed Mr Witty, and polled 1,513 votes in that aristocrat ic constituency ; but in Avon be will certainly do much better. Mr Acland is very popular, and will poll heavily, but though the fight will be a keen one I expect Sir Joseph Ward's lieutenant to get home hy the narrowest of margin::. The safest seat hi all Canterbury is Rieearton, where the popular George Witty will come in wholly "on his own."

SOUTH CANTERBURY.

A final survey or the election prospects in South Canterbury indicates that thcie is not a great deal to add to what has been said before.

In Tiiusmi, itself, however, an important change must bo noted. The Bibl.i in Schools Question has come prominently into the arena during the r>ast few day?:, and as a result of Mr t.raijjie's clear declaration in favor of a referendum he is threatened with the loss of the support of a certain section of the community, which is credited with having voted very solidly for him in past contents. This turnover <>f votes must improve Mr Smith's position, but the supporters of the Reform candidate do not expect a victory. The most they say is that Mr Craifjie's majority of 1.200 will be reduced.

The Temuka contest is expected on all sides to be very close. Mr Kerr's personal popularity will lie an important factor on polling day, and there i= no doubf that lie will put "P a great fight. But there is no reason to suppose th;a l'emul.'.i will change its color, and the Liberal candidate (Mr Talhot) should have a fair majority. Tie will probably poll heavily in Temiika itself and at the YVaimate end of the electorate. Mr Muslin's chances in Ashburton arc still favored by his friends, but I see no reason to alter my previous opinion. Mr Masliu will poll heavily in the Geraldine district, but Mr Nosworthy is assured of strong support in his own portion of the electorate and should win in a close contest.

Both the candidates for 'Waitaki are re ported to be confident. Mr Anstey has continued to make headway at his meetings, but is up against a strong organisation, Jlr Norton Francis having been early in the field and being blessed with some very hard working friends. If Mr Anstey secures a majority south of tho Waitak'i Mr Francis will probably recover the lo r t ground cm his own side of the. river, and get home with a small margin. As Mr Anstev and Mr Francis are both 55 per cent, men the, *\o-licens? vote—a Bti-ong one in Waitaki—will be divided. It must be recalled heir that it w«s tho No-Hcensa people who ga\-« Mr Smith hi* majority three years ago.

Our prognostications in regard to tjie Otago and Southland seats are held till to-morrow

This article text was automatically generated and may include errors. View the full page to see article in its original form.
Permanent link to this item

https://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/newspapers/ESD19141208.2.55

Bibliographic details

ELECTION PROSPECTS, Issue 15670, 8 December 1914

Word Count
4,198

ELECTION PROSPECTS Issue 15670, 8 December 1914

  1. New formats

    Papers Past now contains more than just newspapers. Use these links to navigate to other kinds of materials.

  2. Hierarchy

    These links will always show you how deep you are in the collection. Click them to get a broader view of the items you're currently viewing.

  3. Search

    Enter names, places, or other keywords that you're curious about here. We'll look for them in the fulltext of millions of articles.

  4. Search

    Browsed to an interesting page? Click here to search within the item you're currently viewing, or start a new search.

  5. Search facets

    Use these buttons to limit your searches to particular dates, titles, and more.

  6. View selection

    Switch between images of the original document and text transcriptions and outlines you can cut and paste.

  7. Tools

    Print, save, zoom in and more.

  8. Explore

    If you'd rather just browse through documents, click here to find titles and issues from particular dates and geographic regions.

  9. Need more help?

    The "Help" link will show you different tips for each page on the site, so click here often as you explore the site.

Working