NOTES ON THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume CXXXVIII, Issue 76, 27 September 1944, Page 4

NOTES ON THE WAR

HOW MUCH LONGER?

CONFLICT IN EUROPE

Before the curtain descends—for security reasons—on the Battle of the Rhine in south-eastern Holland, and, presumably on other operations on the Western Front, it may be worth while attempting a survey of the present military position in Europe and a speculation on how much longer the war in this theatre is likely to last. Much has happened recently, and is happening still, that discounts the earlier optimistic forecasts of the end this year. On certain sectors of the triple European front there are signs of temporary stalemate ana stabilisation. The suggestion by Alaric Jacob, "Daily Express" Moscow correspondent (summarised in today's news), that "the Allies should prepare for another winter campaign" should not be dismissed lightly. The reasons given for this opinion are weighty and worth studying. On the Eastern and Western Fronts the Germans are practically back on their own territory with little or no prospect of further help to the Allies—certainly none on the Western Front, except in Holland—from the patriot forces which played so great a part in the liberation of occupied Russia and France. On the other hand, the patriots are playing and will continue to play for some «time to come, a great part in the liberation of the Balkan and Danubian countries. In this respect, as in others, the Southern Front has an advantage at the moment over its eastern and western neighbours. On Interior Lines. It is also pointed out by the Moscow correspondent that the German army is still very large and is now fighting either on or close to its own soil, with short communications on interior lines, a tremendous advantage, in the disposal of forces, over the exterior lines of the Allies, in many places stretched near to breaking point. The shortening of the common front, now in process on all sides, is likely to benefit the Germans more than the Allies, for it "means a smaller perimeter to defend, with excellent radial and cross lines of communications, whereas Allied communications grow longer. Not until a multitude of ports on the Southern and Western sides can be opened up and shorter and better communications established with Russia is this difficulty likely to ease. So, long as the enemy holds Norway and Denmark there is no prospect of a short cut to Russia through the Baltic. Similarly, the way through the Dardanelles and Bosphorus to the Black Sea is blocked by the German retention of the Aegean Islands, Athens and Salonika. From the whole of this region, however, the Germans are reported to bje withdrawing under threat. of being cut off south of the Danube, but they may leave garrisons, "thorns in the side," at strategic points such as Crete, Athens, Rhodes, and Salonika. Element of Surprise. ■ On the Eastern and Western Fronts there are few prospects now of surprises and spectacular advances by the Allies through penetration at "soft spots." The last "soft spot" on the Western Front was the Rhine crossings at Nijmegen and Arnhem, where, for a few days, it looked as if the "combined operations" of the British Second Army and the Allied airborne troops might succed in outflanking the Rhine and the Siegfried Line, at a low cost, and opening up a direct road to the heart of the Reich. But the German reaction was too quick, and there is nothing left to do now but to fight it out on the spot. As the Germans are concentrating here, as they did round Caen in Normandy, the result may be the same as there, a tough, ding-dong battle, helping the Allies to a breakthrough elsewhere. It took fifty days to -break out of Normandy, with good campaigning weather ahead. Now there is no such margin of weather. Indeed, rain is reported at most parts of the Western Front. There is little time left there now. The Eastern Front. ' On the -Eastern Front the Russian drives through Estonia and Latvia to the Baltic are not, strictly speaking, direct drives to Berlin, but rather preliminaries to that by clearing the Baltic States and opening up the Baltic for the Russian fleet, hitherto- confined to tlie Gulf of Finland. The front from East Prussia to the Carpathians along the general line of the Vistula is already heavily manned by Germans with defence works they have had time to prepare. East Prussia itself is a tough proposition, and progress in this sector has been very slow for some weeks. Warsaw is still in German hands and the Germans report, without denial or confirmation from Moscow, that they have wiped out the Vistula bridgehead at Sandomierz. The One "Fluid" Front. This leaves the long and still undefined, still "fluid," Southern Front, from the Middle Danube to the Valley of the Po, as the one from which spectacular advances are still possible. The exact position in the Balkans and Danube Basin is not yet clear. The Russians and Rumanians are striking towards Hungary from Transylvania and are reported to have met stiff resistance at Arad, a few miles from the 1920 border of Hungary. It is also uncertain whether the Germans- have any line of retreat still open for the withdrawal of their Balkan divisions to beyond the Danube or the Save, its principal western tributary in Yugoslavia, joining the Danube at Belgrade. What Tito's forces are doing is obscure, but they have not yet reoccupied Belgrade. In Italy the Allies have passed the fortified Gothic Line, but have not debouched on the Lombardy Plain, north of the Apennines. That done, there will be the big River Po to cross and communications to establish overland with Tito via the Carso battlefields of the last Avar. There is therefore much still to do before the unity of the Southern Front can be established, but this front has so much to offer in the way of "soft spots" and gateways to the Reich, with the Czechs and some Austrians waiting to help, that one would think it would pay the Allies to organise this front if they want the war in Europe to end this year.