DANGER IN EUROPE

Evening Post, Volume CXXII, Issue 119, 16 November 1936, Page 7

DANGER IN EUROPE

POLAND A WEAKNESS

FUTURE POSSIBILITIES

Western European Powers hav^ reached an agreement that at present they have no wish to go to war over the control of Spain (writes Eugene Young in the "San Francisco Chronicle"). Germany, Italy, France, and Britain have entered into a neutrality pact; and even Russia has underwritten it. The conflict between the Imperial democracies and the Fascists has been postponed indefinitely. The Spanish factions will have to fight it out with such smuggled aid as they can get from outside sources.

Yet there is a new rush to arm on the troubled Continent. Germany has announced that 200,000 men will bd added to its army and that the reserves also will be increased. France is trying to follow suit with an increase of its land forces. Italy is to keep its war manufactures going, following the elaborate army manoeuvres in the north. Britain is hastening its programme, especially the construction of aeroplanes. And all the smaller nations are endeavouring to find means to follow these examples.

French propaganda agencies are trying to make the most of the German action as a menace to their country'l. safety. Germany, on the other hand, is saying the whole purpose is to meet the growing danger from Russia. Of the contradictory statements the ones from Germany, in this case at least, carry the most truth.

I have told how busy the Moscow regime was with intrigues in the Balkans and Central Europe while tha other Powers were worried over a possible clash on the Spanish revolution In recent weeks there have been reports, which seemed truthful, that a formidable concentration of the great Russion army had been made on the frontiers facing Poland and Rumania. These have been followed by account? of speeches supposed to have been made by Joseph Stalin, Marshal Klementy Vorishilov, and others warning the country to prepare itself for a war in the near future. POLAND SEEKS AID. Poland has become so alarmed over the supposed danger that Russian an.i German armies will march across itterritory for a clash that it has been seeking aid from both France and Britain The dictatorship at Warsaw, which in 1932 turned away from the alliance with France to make a ten-yeac non-aggression treaty with' Germany, now is trying to find ways to recement the alliance. Military conversations of a highly-practical nature have been held between the two staffs. It is Poland, in fact, that is the..real danger spot in Europe, not Spain,.witn Central Europe secondary. Here are some of tha chief factors hi the situation as it is developing:— Czechoslovakia has a firm alliance with Russia that would, first, permit part of the great Soviet air force to uss its fields, which are being highly developed with the aid of the big ally; and, second,, the march of Russian troops into that country for operations against Germany. ' There are two routes for the advance of the Russian armies into Central Europe: 'through: Galicia, held by Poland, but largely peopled by Ukrainians who hate the Warsaw rulers, or through Northern Rumania. The latter country, : overawed by its great and-powerfulneighbour, has assented to the use of its territory foi ' such an expedition. A strategic rail, way is to be pushed from the Russian to the Czechoslovakian frontier, to couple up^with the roads of this'country ■ ' " The Czechs have strong frontier fortifications which might hold off- the Germans until the Russians arrived, particularly as other Russian arrme. would be descending on Poland proper and large Reich forces would have to be gathered further west to meet this threat. WOULD BE DRAWN IN. Rumania, if it gave the Russians frea passage, would be drawn into the war and Yugoslavia, which has always been a sort of protectorate of Russia-because it is peopled by Southern Slavs might join if Italy became concerned. Thcombined armies could descend on lightly-armed Austria ' and Hungary unless Germany and Italjr sent sufficient forces to hold'them,back, Bulgaria also would be at their mercy I do not believe such a conflict is imminent. Russia is far from prepared for a great campaign., It has fts huge army of 1,300,000 men and an air force that is believed to be the strongest in Europe, on paper . But what worries Germany, Italy and the smaller Danube nations that might be attacked is the strained situaUon in Poland. With Marshal Filsudski gone the dictatorship is not in suc'i strong hands as formerly and it is beset with economic and financial troubles that have made its position insecure. It has followed the repressive tactics of Pilsudski, but has not suppressed the underlying enmities o. the Ukrainians, the peasantry and large portions of the industrial WFur e thermore it is a historical fact that the Poles themselves are politically unstable, reacting violently under pressure. The dictatorship was minosed by Pilsudski because he knev/ this to be true. There is also a question whether the army is-fully to be relied on, because it is not united behind the military faction that has assumed control. Therefore, Poland may have its own revolution; and if one should come both Russia and Germany would be likely to intervene. That would start a great war in the East' ;of Europe which would probably extend to its centre* These are the chief reasons not only for the increase of the German army, but for the attempt of Germany, Italy, Austria, and Hungary to get together. They are all aware of the tremendous strength of the French fortifications along the German and Italian borders and it is hardly likely that an attack would be launched in this direction even if a coalition were perfected.