THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume XCI, Issue 146, 21 June 1916, Page 6

THE WAR

The positive statement received yesterday that Mexico has declared war on the United States has been followed by later messages which make it doubtful whether the untamed republic has yet taken that- desperate step. Ca-rranza's defiant attitude to the United States has been met by a firm declaration by President Wilson -which.should show Mexico,if it is not blinded by war fever, that it should refract. If war is actually undertaken, it is, of course, impossible to say - what course it will take. " The probabilities are that some of its most dramatic phases will happen quickly. The States has a great navy. Mexico possesses half a dozen gunboats and possibly a few torpedo-boats, forming a force designed aot for a big war, but to give the republic some standing among the other minor American republics which cherish naval ambitions. Which is to say that the United States may well try first the experiment of tumbling some of the Mexican ports in ruins—a process involving the minimum of bloodshed on both 6ides, and giving some small prospect of an early surrender. If this should fail, a land campaign would have to be pursued, and almost certainly army operations in Mexico would be protracted because of the guerrilla tactics certain to be adopted and the limited forces at present available in the United States. To secure complete success the United States would probably have to sweep the whole area occupied by the Carranzista forces—no small matter, considering the great size of Mexico. -. The unruly republic does not ,look large upon the map; as i a matter of fact, it is almost exactly equal in area to France, Germany, _ Austria-Hungary, and Italy all rolled into one; and it contains a population of about fifteen million .people. To take an illustration nearer, home, it has an area a little more than one-fourth that of Australia, and ' a population more than -three, times a-s great. The Monroe Doctrine is the cardinal reason, for the existence of the United States navy; by no other instrument could the integrity of the New World from European interference be defended. As a. corollary, the American army is, by European standards, almost of negligible dimensions, and the task before America is thus full of difficulties. If Mexico does not crumple up under naval chastisement—a prospect not to be relied upon, since there are obvious limits to such tactics, and economic pressure will not greatly affect the issue—the struggle may be a long one. It will almost certainly halt for some months till the American people have.had time to form and train a fighting force adequate to do the necessary work without question as to the result. '-.. :

An enquiry likely to spring into many minds is whether the safety of the Panama Canal will.be endangered by Mexican operations. It is most unlikely. Land access to the- great waterway is out of the question, for the Canal is a thousand miles away from the Mexican border, and the territories of five Republics intervene. Mexico's naval force could scarcely do it much harm even if the zone of American, jurisdiction was undefended. Only treachery, can be seriously feared; and the possibilities in that direction cannot be even guessed at.

Th© paramount question regarding- the new task of .the United States is, for the Allies, not the prospects in Mexico so much as the probable effect in Europe. If the MexicaiL war has been engineered from Berlin, its real object is the .disadvantage it will cause the Allies, who are being very greatly helped by imports of all kinds from the United States. Germany probably hopes also to give America something else to think about than submarine- outrages;. and it is notimpossible that the recent remarkable pause of a month in the-submarine campaign was intended as a preliminary sedative to American indignation. It is generally recognised that the United States has been doing the Allies greater service^ as a neutral than she could by force of arms in Europe. To participate^ in the war, and be of real use, she would have to send a great army; and that would consume so much of the national energy, and dislocate so much more, that the stream of American supplies to Britain, France, and Russia might cease, altogether. But while the war with Mexico is certain to affect that stream to some extent, it does not necessarily mean a stoppage. The present nature of the goods that the United States is sending to Europe cannot readily be stated; but in view of certain, recent, reports that the Allies have now so organised their industries that they are no longer seriously dependent ■ upon American munitions, it can be .assumed that foodstuffs and iron and steel manufactures form the chief bulk of the essential supplies. It would be putting a very modest estimate on America's exports to the Allies to say that it represents, one way and another, in material and work, (ho equivalent of the upkeep of a million men in the field. That is to say. America is doing for European populations and armies many times more than she. is likely to have to do, at all events for a long time, for her own forces in Mesico. Moreover, her supplies to Europe have U> be calculated cm tke kttkU of w*r oa its esstiieit &e*l«:

War in Mexico is not likely to be nearly as expensive in any sense as the European war is proving to all the parties. The United States ought to be able to conduct a war with Mexico without any vital dislocation of her present European trade. Indeed, if her statesmen are wise, they will see to it that the new trouble that- has come upon them causes ths minimum of economic loss. The expense of war calls all the more for money from abroad. The American nation has the best of reasons to go on with a trade which is as valuable to it as to the Allies.

General Brusiloff, the Russian commander who has been in charge of the: great offensive that lias so terribly shaken the Austrian army on the east front, has given an interesting interview in which he 'speaks as plainly as is expedient of what he has done and intends to do. "Given munitions, wo can do exactly what we have done in the past fortnight." That is the crux of the position; and Brusiloff very judiciously declines to throw the least light upon whether he has the necessary munitions or not. He emphasises the importance of the present effort to reach Kovel, the, capture of which will hinder a good deal the process of sending Germans from the north to the south; and explains how the simultaneous and uniform effort against the whole of the Austrian front prevented relief being given at any sector that was specially suffering. -The process adopted speaks eloquently of the essential separation of the German and Austrian fronts by the great obstacle of the Pripet marshes. Without the presence of that formidable barrier (uncrossed by any, important railway in German hands, but traversed by "one of which the Russians had the use) the- Russians would have had to undertake an offensive in the north as well, to be sure of retaining the Germans in place. As it was, they could afford to wait in that region till they 'saw what .the Germans were_ likely to do. ■ The attack at Baranovitche illustrates the point; it was aimed at the Austrian army there, to prevent its removal to the southern side of the Pripet basin.

Notwithstanding the great advance of the Russians beyond Lutsk towards Vladimir Volinski, the enemy has held firmly to the Styr River in the region of Kollri, some thirty miles north-east 'of Lutsk, and on the*, southern edge of the Pripet marshes, and the Germans have reported that the fighting there has been in favour of General Linsingen. Today's news announces that on this extreme northern flank of the operative front the tide is turning against the enemy. A considerable advance, to an extent not stated, has been made, following upon the defeat of two divisions of Linsingen's army. The present position is that the Russians have forced a huge salient into the Austrian front, with one flank jusC east of Brody, the other west of Kolki, and the apex about twenty miles east of Vladimir Volinski. The Russian commanders will naturally be chary of forcing their foremost advance too far till they are certain that the flanks of the salient are safe, and the surest road to safety is, if possible, to drive the flanks forward till they are no longer dangerous. Meanwhile the Germans have' managed to getsome reinforcements to the danger point at the head of the salient.

A faint light is thrown to-day on the recent operations on the British front in an official comment upon one of Sir Douglas Haig*s reports, which has not yet arrived. The message points out what has certainly not been apparent from the very brief and cold reports that Sir Douglas Haig issues. .It remarks that the new British front is a region where constant vigilance is necessary, and where anything bnt stagnation prevails. Though definite actions are seldom reported, there is constant activity, in which the British troops are called upon to make the deadly sacrifices that belong to war. That this is so is probably well known to the relatives of the Aizacs, who are now taking a full share of the Empire's work in France; for casualty lists are again a regular feature of the war news. The British forces are facing a great part of the enemy's .strength, and are diligently harrying the Germans for the ultimate good of the Allies' cause and to the ultimate downfall of the enemy.