GERMAN INTRIGUES IN PERSIA

Evening Post, Volume CXI, Issue 6, 8 January 1916, Page 13

GERMAN INTRIGUES IN PERSIA

DIFFICULT PROBLEMS At least it cannot be eaid that theincreasing gravity of the internal situation in Persia is complicated by the' difficulties that sometimes make Oriental policy a sealed book to the plain Englishman, writes Mr Percival Landon in the London Daily Telegraph. The facts are as clear as the day. Anarchy reigns throughout the country. Advantage has been taken by Germany of the position to attract by her usual methods the sympathy and the assistance of a large number of men who are nominally the subjects of the Shah, and a certain amount of brigandage and murder has resulted. . .. j, But it would be a mistake to suppose that because Prussia has found .-a willingness on the part of Persians to^ac- | cept gold when thrust into their hands that therefore she has, or is even likely to have, the . same' ability to guide the policy of Persia, as a whole that her distribution of money to Bulgarians enI abled her to acquire in that • luckless country. First of all, there; is no "Persia as a- whole." A year'or two ago she was described to me-with ugly vigour and a touch of art by a dweller on her frontiers as a decayed sheep of which the leg came off in your hand when you wished to drag the corpse from the road. So that what German diplomacy—or, for . that matter, any diplomacy—can achieve remains effective in a merely local sense. There is only one thing that can be'said to be a link between every part of the kingdom—almost every part, for the English, fortunate or not, will always have stout friends' among the Bakhtiari, the Persian Kurds, the Arabs of theKarun, and many of the southern tribes—and'it is neither race nor religion. 'It is an earnest determination to be on j>he winning side. Even King Ferdinand of Bulgaria cannot surpass them in this plain ambition RIVAL 'INFLUENCES. Therefore, to estimate the actual difficulties ahead of us, we have to remember that every man distrusts every other man in Persia, that there are no leaders, and that there is no Government in any sens* of the word. It is opportunism run wild. For example, the news of tho arrival at Bagdad ■of our Indian Expeditionary Force would probably send Southern Persians fluttering in undignified haste to make terms while yet there is time with the strange Englishmen,' who neither as sassinate nor bribe, and who are, therefore, of lese importance just now. On the other hand, German reports of the successful corruption of the Bulgarian King, and the defection of Greece from what appeared to be a plain path of obligation, have their influence, and the individual Persian is apt in these uncertain circumstances to take the cash, let the credit go, and shout with the crowd which seems likely to be the biggest. The whole situation is a little tinged with ignominy; it is to be remembered that no one had much cause to expect anything else. We are ourselves largely to blame. Our gift of constitutional government to Persia, completed the wreck of a once great people. Twenty years ago Iranic highways were I as safe as those of Worcestershire. The personal responsibility of the keepers of the chappar-khanehs, or posting stations, was not a question of discussion before a judge or of questions aeked in. the Mejliss. If murder or robbery took place on a road there was a man hanged for it. It was always the right man, too, for reasons that may be imagined. Now the German action fails, because once more the East is misunderstood in Berlin. Were there a man. in Persia today in tho position wHch. onr friend the Zill-c3-Sultan occupied twenty years ago in the southern provinces some kind of concerted action might ! have been arranged, though in\that case it would scarcely be of a kind to . please the Teutons. Without a man of that kind— .and.Persia has not a man .of that,kind within her borders — bribery becomes "merely an expensive hobby. There is no man to take command in Persia, and whatever the action of the quasiArabian tribes that have seemed to respond best to the shower of gold, Bo one knows better than Herr Wassmus, tlie German agent In Southern Persia, that an occasional successful assassination of an official attached to the Allies is no guarantee that the well-subsidised tribe to which the assassin belongs will move a finger in aid of Turkey if Bagdad falls. In short> "the leg comes off in the hand." THE PERSIAN GULF For these. and other reasons the chaos which reigns in Persia can be used by neither side for its own advantage. The somewhat childish suggestion has been, made that an armed force might possibly make its way from the terminus of the' Bagdad railway at Ras-el-ain through Bagdad, the Bakhtiari or Kashgai hills, the Kerman deserts, and the jUekran, to India. To, those who know these districts, the absurdity. Of transporting across ■ them even a single brigade of infantry in this manner is apparent. The desiccated Mekran, through which 2200 years ago j Alexander forced his way, is a, ' very different country now from what it was then, and the alternative routes are still less practicable, as even Sven Hedinwill confess. From a military point of view tho successful corruption of certain persons in Persia and sporadic local emeutes cannot affect the position in any way. From a point of view, however, which is of much importance to us, it will be understood that we must at all costs retain our full authority in tht> only part of the Middle East for which we have asserted any exclusive responsibilities—the Persion Gulf and its immediate vicinity. . The matter is not one which will cause us much trouble, but it must be consid-' ered in all it 3 beirings, and the probable action of German agents in such places as Linga, Debai, Bandar Abbas, and Maskat, outside the gulf, nipped at once. The presence of :Russian troops in tie north will, for. the reasons that have been stated; only have a steadying effect, locally. Persia is so utterly disorganised that nothing has much influence beyond the limits of a province, the walls of a city on 'a main road. A strong man might still set the place in order, though it would be a hard matter, and we have no time now in which to wait for the compelling character that Asia throws up once m a hundred years. Whether we still continue in military occupation of. Bushire, or- whether we shall have afterwards to re-occupy the place, is a matter that may make some difference in the time required to glear up our region of influence. But the deciding factor in.oil this viscous trouble is that, while the West demands to be governed by law, the East prefers to be governed by a man. ■ i

"I respectfully ask your Honour," said counsel, iv defending a. prisoner charged with horse-stealing, "to impress upon the jury that it is a, fundamental principle of law that it is better for ninety-nine guilty men to escape than for ono Tnnoconfc man to bo found ■ guilty." "Yes; that is true." said the judge, reflectively, "and I shall so instruct tho jury; but! shall add that in the opinion of the Court it it probable- that the ninety-nine ruilt*