THE WAR

Evening Post, Volume XC, Issue 134, 3 December 1915, Page 6

THE WAR

Reduced to the simplest terms, the chief items of news about the Balkan situation are: (1) Germany and Bulgaria hint that the campaign in Servia is ended. (2) Greece is reported to have given the Allies the assurances they require (3) Italy will speedily assist Servia. (4) Russia's Bulgarian army has not yet moved, but an attack is being made in Bukovina. (5) As the result of the Russians' new offensive, enemy troops have had to be removed from the Balkans. These items constitute the best batch of news there has been for a long time. They are all intimately connected, and they all rest upon the principle brought into prominence a few days ago that the enemy by extending their operations weaken their fronts, and that the Allies can beat them at that game. Upon a battlefield, each side tries to outflank the other. Exactly the same idea is involved in entering upon new campaigns. If one belligerent opens a fresh campaign which the. other cannot meet, he has succeeded in a. flanking movement upon a grand scale. To-day's news suggests !fcat the enemy has been outflanked in this sense. He has lately undertaken a campaign in the Balkans, and has thus employed a certain number of troops. Russia has concentrated a great force on the Rumaniap frontier, effectually tying up further large enemy forces "necessary to watch and prepare to fight those Russians. Russia, has, in addition, initiated a fresh offensive upon the old battleground of Bukovina and Galicia, and in order to meet this the enemy has to weaken his existing fronts, especially, it appears, the Servian. It is true that Servia is 'the area from which German troops can most easily be spared, because the Servians have been terribly crushed, the Bulgarians have large power of holding the invaded territory, and it may not be possible for the Allies to develop a counter-attack with rapidity. But the principle operates.

Baron Sonnino's statement regarding the Greek decision and the intended action of Italy is positive and of the highest importance It completely overshadows the Daily News correspondent's report that Greece is still hesitating under the threat of Germany to regard the Allies' foothold in Greece as enemy territory. It is possible that a. compulsory termination of the German operations in Servia would go a long way towards helping Greece to come to a conclusion. While the enemy were rushing across Servia, sweeping all before them, and threatening at any time to force the Serbs and their Allies on to Greek soil, where they would present a very difficult problem, it was Kin* Constantine's object to secure himself against the vengeance of the Powers which looked as if they might be the victors. But if the tide should be turned by events as far off as Ga.licia, he mi^ht give more attention to-the fact that a friendly arrangement with the Allies would involve no painful consequences from them.

As far as Italy's help is concerned, it is apparent from Baron Sonnino's speech that it has been definitely decided upon, and even that on expedition has already crossed the Adiiutic," The Minister has

committed his country to a most important undertaking— to see that Servia is restored to independence. At the same time, Italy, which has strength to spare for a great extension of her activities, is to pursue her "traditional policy," by ensuring the independence of Albania, and especially by obtaining that much-desired strategical control of the Adriatic which her own lack of good ports forbids her, and the obtaining of some of the eastern coast would confer.

If the news of the day can be taken at its face value, the Balkan play turns upon a Russian offensive in Galicia and the Bukowina, of which as yet very little has been reported. It will be remembered that a few days ago, when the Russian concentrations on the northern frontier of Rumania were being made, a report came that the enemy was attempting to drag them away by threatening the southern Russian front, and this development has been the subject of a later message, emphasising the new importance of this area. If the Russians have met this Austro-German attempt by starting a victorious advance, highly valuable results may be expected. Rumania would be delighted by the reconquering of Bukowina, Which she greatly desires. Czernovitz she covets; and Sadagora, one of the two towns named as captured by the Russians, lies immediately to the north of the city, about four miles away, north of the Dniester. Apparently Czernovitz, the possession of which has been in some doubt, is in the enemy's, hands, and' if it can be captured there will follow a marked feeling in Rumania in favour of seizing a valuable opportunity. This city has been mentioned as one of the acceptable gifts for which Rumania would give her help to the Allies.

Italian intervention is referred to not only by Baron Sonnino, but by a writer in the Berliner Tageblatt. He expects that it will be made through Albania, to junction with the remainder of the Servian armies. He also makes the remarkable admission that the Serbs have not been decisively beaten, and, altogether, expresses views unusually gloomy for publication in a big German daily. If Italy can reach the Serbs on their western frontier, bringing them fresh supplies of munitions, and the Allies, operating on the south, feel themselves free to act, the Servian fields are likely to waken into activity, with a result very different from the disasters of past weeks. The problem of intervention through Albania is the exceedingly heavy one of transport across difficult country inadequately roaded ; but in this region _any help i 6 better than none. It is curious that up to the present the question of Albania's neutrality does not seem to have created any difficulties.

Some light is thrown on the differences between Austria and Germany. These were inadequately referred to in yesterday's news as being due to dissension about Poland, but the matter is deeper than that. Austria is realising her impotence and her bankruptcy, and the Emperor seems to have been trying quietly to conclude peace, regardless of the consequences to the plans of his fcentor, the Kaiser. The German Wai' Lord has naturally taken steps to control the situation, and the AustroHungarian Cabinet has been " stiffened " with a pro-German element which is probably considered sufficient to keep the peace fa-ction from running the German cause into the abyss. There is, however, a growing peace movement in Germany, and the Kaiser himself is suspected of " pulling strings " to bring the war to an end by negotiation. He is also said to have told the Pope that he would not tolerate a premature peace such as was sought by the Austrian Emperor. There is no inconsistency in this. The Kaiser, if he thinks of peace, intends no doubt that the proposal shall come from the Allies. At all events he will require that the Teutonic alliance shall stand firm, armed with all its territorial gains and power of defiance, to make a good bargain. If Austria deserts him, the whole fine structure of conquered property so dearly and painfully bought must collapse, and he will be compelled to accept any terms, however humiliating, that may be imposed.upon him. The fantastic peace scheme organised by Mr.' Henry Ford, the American millionaire, has received a wellmerited blow from the Government of the United States, which has refused official sanction to the expedition by declining to issue passports except to neutval countries.

It must not be supposed that peace talk means the approaching end of the war. A discussion among the Allies favouring peace would at this stage be a splendid service to the enemy. He dreads the long, slow course oj the war, and dreads, too, the farther development of the Allies' power against his dwindling strength. A discussion of peace, except at the direct, and sincere request of the Teutonic Powers, would risk a reduction of the Allies' efforts. One possession which the AlHes can have when Germany prepares to give' up the struggle is a great reserve of fighting power. They must be able not only to say that Germany is beaten, but that if she does not think so, she will be beaten again, and convinced. Germany will bargain for peace terms with such territories (and they are great now) as she has conquered. If she does that the Allies must bargain with men—enough men to win back every inch of lost ground, and more. There is no time to talk of peace. It is for the Allies to wait till the Kaiser talks, and talks in earnest.