SPECTATOR SUMMARY. (For 'Week 'Ending Saturday, lst May, 1909.)

Evening Post, Volume LXXVII, Issue 144, 19 June 1909, Page 12

SPECTATOR SUMMARY. (For 'Week 'Ending Saturday, lst May, 1909.)

THE BUDGET. •On Thursday Mr. Lloyd George opened his first Budget. The main fact, a fact the sinister significance of which cannot be exaggerated, is that he has, even on his own optimistic calculations, to find over £16,000,000 either by fresh taxation or its equivalent. When hist August we declared that this would be the case, we were denounced as either mad or malignant, and the Premier did not scruple to denounce the editor of tho Spectator by name to a Congress of International iFtee-Traders for his "fainthearted" and "woe-begone" conduct. We do not know whether Mr. Asquith f elt\ woe-begone on Thursday; but if not, he urusfc be singularly ineensitive to the injury ho and his colleagues have done, not only to tho cause of Free-trado, jut to the national interests. It is impossible to add £16,000,000 to the country's already heavy burdens without results of the, gravest character. ANTICIPATIONS. The reason for this estimated deficit of over £16,000,000 is easily set forth. The Chancellor of the Exchequer does not venture to estimate the revenue that will be derived from the existing taxes higher than £148,390,000. He cannot put the expenditure for nexfi year lower than £164,152,000. This means that ha will have to get at least an additional £15,762,000 from somewhere in order to make his Budget just balance, and if he has to have a margin of safety of, say, £488,000, £16,250,000 in all. But bad as is this estimate, we greatly fear that it is too 'favourable. We see no reason to think that the revenue next year will come in better than last year on the existing basis, and a good deal of reason to think it will bo worse. To begin with, there has been a great deal of anticipation in respect of tho indirect taxes in -which an increase was feared, and though the Ghancellor has to some extent allowed for this, we are afraid he has still been too optimistic. Next, tho income tax will this year feel the decreasing profits of_ trade. Finally, higher taxation is likely to result in evasion in many directions. On the other hand, we believe that the estimated expenditure, especially as regards old age pensions, is put too low. We snail not be surprised to find that this item has been underestimated by nearly £1,000,000. The pressure to get on to tho pension list is constantly increasing, and the power of resistance in the Pension Committees is as constantly declining. It is much easier to bo strict at the beginning of" a new system than after people have got accustomed to it. THE NEW BURDENS. As Free-traders, we approve of the general principle of the Budget, which 16 to have recourse to direct rather than indirect taxation. Again, we approve of the fact that the new taxes, though they will only raise some thirteen extra millions this year, are likely to raiao very much more in the future. At the same time, wo cannot disguise from ourselves tho face that the new burdens are by no means likely to make Free-trade popular in the country. They are sure to be connected in the popular mind with that great fiscal principle, and tho appeal 16 sure to be made to the taxpayer: "See what comes of Free-trade? Why not try Tariff Reform? You will find that it will relieve you just> where the shoo pinches most." In a 'Budget of disagreeables, one of the few consoling features is the splendid result obtained by the income tax in tho past year. The tax was actually levied on £1,040,000,000 of income, and, in spite of the recent rebate given to earned incomes, each penny of tax actually yielded £2,833,000" or £133,000 more per penny than in 1907-8. A tax which shows such power and elasticity is surely one which should not be lightly tampered with. THE NEW SULTAN. Very little ia known of the new Sultan, Reshad Effendi, who has been called to the throne after thirty-five years' captivity in tho 'Palaco of Dolma Baghche, but that little is all to nis credit. Mohammed V., to call him by his new title, is a man of sixty-four, tall, stout, and of a- fan more geniai expression of countenance than his brother. The enforced seclusion and inactivity of more than half his lifetime have encouraged a habit of indolence; but, though living in a cloud of spies, he seems to have retained a natural kindliness of disposition. For tho rest, he Is known to be a good 'Persian scholar, and is alleged to have long harboured liberal ideas. A correspondent of The Times, wlio saw and conversed with Reshad after the revolution of July, gives a pleasant, if rather pathetic, picture of his courtesy, good feeling, and intelligence. The general impression left by an hour's conversation was that of ;i gentle, well-meaning man who, "given favourable circumstances and good advisers, was well qualified to preside over a period of peaceful transition, while uwas more doubtful if he was capable oC riding the whirlwind." Tha recorded public utterances of tho new Sultan, wo may add, confirm the favourable impression created by this account. UNDER SURVEILLANCE. Tho ■conditions under which the present Sultan lived during ths tyranny of his half-brother wero once brought home to the present writer in a very pointed manner. While riding on the outskirts of Constantinople he saw a cavalry escort preceding a very smart victoria 1 with j gold, furniture on the harness of the showy horses. Inside the carriage, and alone, wis a middle-aged man, benfc forI ward, with a hunted look' in his eyes, and a listless arm hanging over the carriage apron, for the weather had been j showery. Behind the carriage were two or three disreputable-looking men on shaggy ponies. "That," said the dragoman, "is Reshad Effendi, the Sultan's half-brother." "Who wero the roughlooking men on ponies who closed up round tho carriage directly we ■ came near?" "'They are the spies. They are always specially afraid that he may hold some communication with a European. He never knows whether he will sleep in his own as every now and then whon the Sultan is particularly subpicious he makes him come to Yildiz, sometimes for several weeks together."