PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3052, 13 April 1917, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Bad weather, which renders aerial observation impossible, and generally impedes operations, has imposed a check on the British offensive in the West, but there is much in the reported circumstances to suggest •that the check is momentary. An important capture reported to-day is.that of the village and heights of Monchy-le-Proux. This village stands a couple of miles south of the Scarpe, five miles cast of Arras. Like the higher Vimy ridge to the north, Monchy-le-Preux commands descending slopes and lower ground towards the east. Late nows yester,'day made it : clear that tha enemy,

was dislodged from his last foothold on Vimy ridge, at the northern end, on Monday night. On a front of about nine miles from Vimy to Monchy the British are now everywhere holding high ground overlooking the low country which separates them from Douai. According to one of his own newspapers, the enemy relies upon the strength of the uncompleted Drocourt-Quean line. Drocourt is about six miles west of Douai, and Quean ten. miles west of Cambrai. Whatever its state of preparation may be, this line is certainly much less favourably located from the cnemy's'standpoinfc than the well-chosen and formidably fortified positions out of which he was lately hurled. The position at the moment, as one correspondent points out, is that flic enemy has been thrust back on the pivot of his previous retreat and between Arras and Cambrai he is holding an acute salient. The British are undoubtedly well placed to resume the offensive as soon as the Weather improves. •

Sojie recent reports - from . Russia point to 'a, state of affairs in that country which can only be regarded as decidedly inimical to the effective prosecution of the war. According to the Times correspondent at Petrograd the internal crisis is assuming an acute form, and the committees of Labour and Soldiers' deputies are conducting an agitation which at best is calculated to seriously embarrass the Provisional Government, and, if it is not checked, may go far to paralyse effective action by the Russian armies. These bodies are in effect advocating an inconclusive peace, and while there is no evidence that they represent any large section..of the Russian people or of the army, the freedom with which they are conducting their agitation speaks badly for Russia's prospects of effectively prosecuting the war in the critical days that lie immediately ahead. It seems hardly possible that the cry raised against annexation will be ultimately sustained by the Russian people. In the form given to it hy the Socialists and other extremists it apparently contemplates leaving to their fate the Poles and other oppressed races who are now the victims of Austrian and. German misrule, and tho abandonment of all claim to Constantinople. . Time may no doubt be trusted to produce a radical change in regard to these matters of war and foreign policy, but whether the extremists will be overthrown speedily enough to enable Russia to conduct an effective campaign during the coming summer is meantime an,open question. Some of to-day's reports impart a more hopeful aspect to the situation. In particular, a. • Reuter message states it is not known what backing,''if any, the members of the Council of Workmen and Soldiers have in the army, but that apparently they are nondescript malcontents, and Jacobins—promulgators of extreme revolutionary opinions—whose heads • have been turned by the late upheaval. If the author of this message' is right in his estimate of the quality and steadfastness of the members of the Provisional Government there should be no reason to doubt that sane counsels will ultimately prevail in Russia. But it is obvious that at present the Government is being hampered arid' embarrassed, and there is a distinct danger that the army may be hampered 'as welll ' ■

Manifestly this state of affairs in Russia has a grave bearing upon the immediate outlook in the war. Handicapped as she is by a shortage of the material equipment that bulks large in modern war, Russia was expected to £lay a big part in this year's campaign. The general outlook at the beginning of the year was epitomised by General Biitjsiloff in the following statement to an English correspondent:—

Russia, will not be able to bring all her forces effectively to -bear before the spring of 1917; and then she will possess the greatest and most complete army in her wholo history. During tile year*l9lß we have been compelled to fight with a marked inferiority of material and 'of large calibre grins; the year 1917 will find ns wasters of a material equal to that of our adversaries, and we shall have, at the same time, ail extraordinary superiority of men. This situation will continue in a steadily-increasing: degreo until tlie end of the war. Our recruits each year are of the best possible 'quality, infinitely superior to any human material that the Teutons can dispose of, I am convinced, to fight against ns in the campaign of the coming year. The situation ill Eumania, however grave it may be, is not such as to-cause real alarm, and, so far, has no' strategical importance from the point of . view of the general plan of the Entente : Allies. -

How far these conditions have been modified by the political disorders now ruling in Eussia remains to be seen, but tho issues that hinge upon the nature of the effort' to be put forth by the Russian armies this year arc supremely important. The turn of events in the Eastern campaign must necessarily have a vital bearing upon the question whether the war is to'end this year in an Entente victory or to be prolonged.

An understanding of' the place that Eussia occupies in the Allied circle and of what even the temporary loss of her effective co-operation would be likely .to mean to the Allies is assisted by a consideration, of the distribution of the enemy forces, as far as it was known, at the end of last' year. In mid-December, according to Colonel Repington, there were, not counting the cavalry, 128 German divisions in the West; 106 | divisions on the Russian front, of ! which 65 were German, 39 Austrian, and two Turkish; 29 divisions on the Rumanian front, including 12 German, 11 Austrian, four Bulgarian, and two Turkish; twelve-on the Macedonian front, namely, eight or nine Bulgarian, two to three German, and one Turkish; and, finally, 33 Austrian divisions in the Italian theatre. Taking these figures as correct, tho enemy at the end of last year had 135 divisions (77 of them German) on the continuous front which now extends from the Baltic Sea to tho Danube. At a conservative estimate, this would represent well over a million bayonets, and a total strength under all heads of considerably more than two millions.: To what extent these dispositions have _ been _ altered is not known; but it is unlikely, that.up to the present the enemy has materially reduced the strength of his "Eastern armies by transfers to the Western theatre. Some German troops are said to have been withdrawn- from,the Rumanian front, but these may have been sent to the Riga sector, where a successful Russian offensive at the beginning of January compelled the enemy to concentrate heavy reinforcements. General evidontly believed that the. Russians were capable not only : of holding, but of,

heavily defeating the. great force the enemy is constrained to maintain on the East front, but the political troubles which he did not foresee have now to be reckoned with. It is unlikely that anything short of absolute anarchy in Russia would enable the enemy to transfer any great body of strength from East to West, but until the present disorders arose the Russians had prospects of doing much better than hold the Teutonic Eastern armies inactive. It was a reasonable expectation that they would be able to heavily punish any offensive attempted by the enemy and to themselves resume the offensive which was brilliantly developed under General 'Brusiloff's direction last year. It is no longer certain that these expectations will be realised, and any material limitation of Russia's effort is, of course, bound to influence events in other theatres.