The Dominion TUESDAY, MARCH 20, 1917. GERMANY'S JUNIOR PARTNERS

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3032, 20 March 1917, Page 4

The Dominion TUESDAY, MARCH 20, 1917. GERMANY'S JUNIOR PARTNERS

The Washington message which states that the collapse of Turkey is reported as probable, in view of the conditions ensuing on the British victories in Mesopotamia, probably amounts to nothing more than a speculative estimate of the situation. Though tho outlook is black indeed for Turkey, previous experience has taught us that the' Ottoman Empire has.a wonderful capacity for wriggling out of disasters lust as they are about to overwhelm her, and though the end now appears certain enough, tho anticipated collapse may be deferred for a time. That the Turks are desperately hard pushed not only in Asia Minor, but in the matter of supplies and finance, is certain. That they are disheartened by the turn events havo taken may also bo regarded as beyond question. But they have not yet reached the slago when their confidence in Germany has been bo shattered as to leave them no hope of making better peace terras with her assistance than they would be able to make without her. When that time comes the! Turks will collapse; and the time clearly is approaching. Tho wholesale manner in which the German military authorities have depleted tho Ottoman Empiro of its troops has been bitterly resented, and it is stated that the authorities at Constantinople havo now decided to recall the TurkiE-'i troops from Riga, Galicia, Macedonia, and Rumania, with the object of Hlr«ngthcr;ieg the defence- of Asia, Minor. Tho present trend of events will probably result in serious friction between Germany and her junior partner;.. Tho partnership \i not held together by any tins of affection. Tho memj licrs are vf:ry suspicions of each i other, and both iu Turkey and Austria, I ho impression i •, Raininß ground that, O'srmanv is lighting simply aud solely for her own ends, and that tho inlW-sts of her Allies are Dot merely a rnconriary consideration, h\ii, :nny Iμ Mt-riiml altogrtVr f-'hoiild >-irri>ins'amvK it. It is general!. , ,' understood thai, (jr.rniaoy recently expressed willingness to make important concessions at the expense ot Austria and Turkey in order to securo s<, soparate P'tace with Ruf.sia. This readiness ! In hargain wil.i-, u-rnlr.ry whirli nui. Ivionir !■'. h'T HIM-! ii-i;-.- -•■!. | !( - ( - I jiuiior pHi-l-iicr ihinim.? The i idea o[ a, btpa.ynuii nca<:u is no doubt I already ?J> tho back o? uheie mla&t..

They know now that they have boon duped by Germany, and probably the only thing that, prevents an open rupture is Germany's success in persuading them that with, their help she is still able to Vvin the war, or at least command a satisfactory peace When their belief in the power of the dominant partner is brokon by the convincing logic of events, then either Austria, Bulgaria, or Turkey, or all of them, may take steps to secure a dissolution o£ thoir fiance with Germany, and to make the best terms they can with the Allies.

The victories of the British and Russian forces in Asia Minor and the failure of the Germans to resist the forward movement of the British and French armies on the Western front a.re disturbing factors likely to strain the relations of Germany and her allies. When trouble comes junior partners aro, as the Spectator remarks, apt to be hard and Unforgiving. They may put up 'with a certain amount of buliylag and buffeting as long as victories aro being won; but now "that things 3,vc looking so serious for tho Central Powers tho partners arc beginning to wake up, and to rctoind Germany, ,not only of their existence buli of their rights." Austria is no longor rulod by a mon--1 arch supine with fatalism and old age; but by a young man, active, And intensely anxious to save something out of tho ruins of tho heritage of tho Hapsburgs. As soon as the tido.of war turns decisively and unmistakably in favour of tho Allies, Germany's partners will begin to ask themselves why they should sacritico everything to savo Germany from downfall. When it becomes clear that Goxmany cannot avert defeat, it should not prove a difficult matter to detach one or more of Germany's partners by diplomatic means. In an interesting letter whioh is given prominenco in a recent issue of the Spectator the writer points out that-

Tho German alliance is an alliance (if iowei-a of -unequal strength, and it is based largely on fear. Not only AustriaHungaxy, but the South Gbrnian States also obey the directions of Berlin because they aro afraid to disobey. Tho unity of the group of Powers dominated by Germany is similar to the unity of tio many nations which obeyed Nnpoleon'e orders until ho was defeated. After the Russian dieastec of 1812 Prussia, Austria, the South German States, in fact all his allies oscopt Saxony, not odlj- deserted him, but jnado Trar upon him. Even part of tho Saxon army went over to the oneniy. History may repeat ilsoLf, especially if tho Alliod diplomats know how to malro uso of thein opportunities. Tho fact that Germany is powerless to prevent tho collapso of her long-cherished Berlin-Bagdad schemo is a sign of weakness which cannot fail to impress tho Turks, and tho of the Turkish troops from tho Europoan battlefields, if Germany yields to the Turkish demands for their return to Constantinople, will lessen the fighting power of. the Central Powers on tho Eastern front at a critical time, and greatly increauo tho uneasiness of Austria and Bulgaria. When her junior partners realise, as they soon must, that Germany is unable to savo cither herself or them, they may be expected to take steps to mako the best of. a bad bargain, and, if possible, cut themselves adrift from their chief associate before they aro overtaken by irrotriovable disaster.