PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3011, 23 February 1917, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

j A bold departure is involved in ttfo decision announced by Sie Ed- ■ waKb Carson that henceforth the ; nurnbors of ships arriving at and departing from United Kingdom ports shall be published, and also the numbers of:shjps which are attacked by submarines and escape. In the earlier stages of the war statistics of shipping arrivals and departures wore published week by week, but the practice was discontinued, and for a long time Admiralty announcements have been limited to the names of ships sunk. The publication of particulars of ships which are attacked and escape will be an entirely new feature. It is a fact not without promise that the Admiralty has decided to take the public more fully into its confidence than at any previous period of the submarine campaign. Under the new arrangement the progress of the campaign and the counter-cam-paign will bo set out from time to time in broad, but definite, outline.

Some of the detail facts cited by the First Lord of the Admiralty bear very, striking witness to the enterprise and success with which the Navy is attacking the problem of the submarines, ft is no exaggeration to say that the .fact that the Navy had forty, encounters with submarines during' February, that is. to say, in the space of less than three weeks, marks an enormous achievement. How many of the underwater craft included in the total were sent to the bottom or captured is not stated, but probably a good proportion were accounted for. _ The chief difficulty of the submarine hunters, is to get into touch with their quarry. So much accomplished, the submarine probably needs to bo more than ordinarily lucky to escape. Forty submarines in all likelihood represented a big percentage of the number which left the German ports in the period covered, and that so many were encountered increases tho probability that loss of submarines accounts for the drop in the number of merchant ships destroyed during tho third week ot this month, as compared with the record for the two weeks preceding.

It is a reasonable inference from the known facts of the submarine campaign that it, would be speedily defeated if Germany were not in a position to very rapidly turn out new submarines and put them into commission.' Sir Edward Carson's statement leaves it in no doubt that tho Navy is taking heavy toll of the underwater craft, and it is likely that standardised construction and the systematic training of crewß (making it possiblo to rapidly replace losses) are much more important factors accounting for the rc~ success of tho submarines tnan the improvements in type which are tho subject of more or less uncertain reports. Tho importanco of the arming of merchant ships, which is now being rapidly expedited, is made, fully evident in the First Lord's statement that 76 per cent, of the armed ships attacked by submarines havo escaped, as against 24 per cent, of tho ships unprovided with guns which have been attacked. It may be some time yet before all the British ocean-going ships are armed, but with even a substantial percentage, armed tho submarines will bo compelled to observe generally a degree of caution in attack which should tend to materially limit their destructive activities. * * ' *. • *

A STATEMENT by LORD OUMON throws interesting light upon the conditions obtaining in Persia, and indicates that there is now no great likelihood of the enemy finding in that country a profitable field of ac-

tivity. For a danger was in plain sight thai the Turks, at German instigation and with some assistance from Germany, might open a road through Persia to the frontiers of India, and strenuous exertions by both Russia and Britain have been needed to reduce the danger to its present comparatively insignificant proportions. In the early stages of tho war Persia was largely under German influence. A German agent provocateur, with a big staff of helpers, was actively promoting hostility to the Entente. and the Swedish-officered gendarmerie and a large number of native brigands were at his beck and call. The Russian occupation of northern Persia did a' great deal to foil the enemy schemes and restore internal order in the country, and the immediate task was, of course, made easier by the extent to which the Turks were engaged in neighbouring and more distant theatres. In the. early part of last year the Russians, after occupying Teheran, advanced to the western confines of Persia,_ and it seemed possible that they might be able to co-operate usefully with their own compatriots in Armenia and with, tho British forces in Mesopotamia by making an aggressive move against the Turks in the .Tigris Valley. These hopes faded when the Russians were compelled' to fall back from the Persian border, and the Turks invaded Kermanshah, Hamadan, and other •districts in Western Persia, which they still occupy.

The subsequent march of events, ultimately merging in the conditions ncny described by Lokd Curzon, is informatively detailed by Mr. M. Philips Price, in a dispatch written at Tiflis on November 12, and published in England at the end of December. . One result of the Turkish invasion of West Persia was tho downfall of a Government at Teheran which had been on tho friendliest terms with Eussia and, England. When the Turks broke- into tho western provinces, tho then Persian Premier,' Zipahdar, threatened to break diplomatic relations with Turkey if Haul Bey's troops advanced beyond Kermanßhah, that is to say, if they continued their march in the direction of Teheran. The Turks, nevertheless, did advance, and when they reached Hamadan, in August last, it appeared that Teheran would bo threatened. Zipahdak, who had committed himself fully to .Russia and England, thereupon tendered his |

resignation, which was accepted by the Shah. A new Cabinet was then formed, under the leadership of Vossua-ED-DOH'LEH, a man of no Very strong leanings one way or the other, who, it was felt, could arrango matters with the Turks if they reached the capital. <l * (I *

A somewhat critical situation wal thus created, and a. question arose as to whether Persia would recognise the convention which Zipahdak had concluded with Russia and England on July 23, just before the Turkish invasion of the western provinces assumed serious importance. This agreement provided that a Cossack brigade, 11,000 strong, under Russian officers, should be maintained in the north, and a similar number of gendarmes under British officers in the south. The expenses of these forces were apparently to bo met out of a monthly subsidy of £30,000 granted to Persia by Russia and England. The second part of the' agreement was to the effect that Persia should maintain to the end of the war a friendly neutrality towards Russia and England. The convention had both a financial and political side, and Persia was to be secured from bankruptcy on condition of maintaining neutrality. The members of Vossug-ed-Dowleh's Cabinet were described as not directly hostile to Russia and England, but under the influence of the Nationalist element in Persia, which looks with suspicion on any attempt to introduce external control over Persian affairs. The Premier was urged* by the Nationalists to refuse to recognise the convention, and if the military situation had further changed for tho worse, much of what Russia, and England had accomplished towards establishing order in Persia and securing her continued neutrality might have been undone.

Fortunately the situation has taken instead a turn for the better. From Loed Quezon's statement it is clear that a great improvement has been made upon the conditions that obtained at the end of lasb year. The Russian army in the north has been raised to a strength which enables it to effectively bar the approaches to Tehoran, and' the recent British successes in Mesopotamia further improve the military outlook. All things considered, itjeomß hardly likely that Turkey will be able to expand her present military effort in Persia. Tne fact that "a more stable Government, entirely friendly to the Allies, is now established at Teheran" speaks for itself. Whether Zipahdae has been recalled is not stated, but no doubt the Government now in office will freely recognise the agreemont concluded between that iVlinistor and the Allies. That the convention is being enforced is indicated in Lokd Ourzon's 'statement that a'gendarmerie is being- organised under a British commander (Sir Peecy Sykes) to piit down brigandage.

Apart from British raids in Flanders and Northern Franco, and tho capture of an enemy position (south of Bapaume, few events in the land war are reported at time of writing. It is not without significance, however, that the German newspapers, which have been in tho habit of insistently declaring that tho German "fitont in the Western theatre is unbreakable, are now speaking of open warfare as a thing to be'honed for and desired.