PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2553, 30 August 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

America's protests to Germany on tho subject of submarine outrages have continued so long without leading to any result that, it is a littlo astonishing to be told now that Germany, under American pressure, has agreed to abandon at least the worst features of her submarine campaign against merchant ships. It. is reported from Washington that Count Berxstorff has informed tho United States Secretary of State (Mr, Lansing) that German submarine commanders have been ordered not to attack merchantmen,-with-out warning. Reports in haricl dealing with this aspect.of the matter are not official, and must await confirmation before they are accepted without question, but apparently they obtain a certain amount of credenco in Great Britain and elscwhero. This is indicated in speculations as to the .motives impelling Germany to make so radical a departure from its past policy. As to the Arabic, the Berlin wireless scrvico is given as authority for a statement iii which the German Chancellor promises America complete satisfaction of her grievance in connection with the sinking of that ship. This statement, ill its humble and submissive- tnvms, if strangely differ. out to the off-hand aud evasive va-

plies made by Germany to the United States Notes conccrmng the Lusitania. ''-■■■■ * » » . ♦ On what has been made known of their purport, th<j past negotiations of America and Germany on the subject of the submarine campaign might be searched in vain for anything, calculated ,to lead up to tho situation now reported 'to be reached. It is therefore not suiprising to find that in- such attempts' as arc made to explain Germany's change of attitude, America's share in the matter is passed over ve.y lightly. Considering what _ happened in tho case of the Lusitania, it is fairly certain that much less* important concessions than 'Germany is now said to contemplate would • have sufficed to prolong the negotiations with America almost interminably. Assuming that Germany has really decided to modify her submarine campaign, it is probable that she is only using the American negotiations as a pretext and because she wishes to cover up her retreat'from an untenable position. As yet the whole, situation is cloudy and uncertain, but it is suggestive to read on the one hand that hissing cr'owis gathered before the American Embassy in Berlin, and on the other that the pro-German Press in the United States is dosing Uncle Sam with honeyed words. This would fit in with a supposition that the ruling authorities in Germany have reached a decision /regarding the submarine campaign for reasons which it 'is not expedient to make known to the multitude, but concerning which j;he Press agents of the German Government at home and abroad are better informed. * * * * The principal reason for _ the change in Germany's attitude, it is suggested in one message, may bo that the submarine campaign is prov-. ing too expensive in submarines. The change is held to be closely allied to the British Admiralty's avowal of important German' lossea in submarines and Lord Selborne's declaration that the Navy has-the submarine menace well in hand. This claim may seem to be inconsistent with tho continued activity of the siibmarines, as manifested in a steady toll of merchant vessels sunk .or damaged, but while these losses have continued up to the present time, and during the last week or two have been as numerous as at any period of the campaign, there is nothing to show that they have been inflicted by the same set of submarines. -. Careful examination of the facts relating to some of the most active periods' of the campaign during the last few months has shown that a comparatively . small number of submarines could easily have accounted for all the ships torpedoed during a period in the seas around Great Britain. For instance, in the 18 days from June 1 to June 17 (inclusive), 43 ships (not all of them British) were torpedoed in the North Sea, the Atlantic, and the western, approach. to the English Channel. It is an interesting fact that in the same period not a single ship was-torpedoed in the Channel between tho Straits of Dover, and Lands End. As regards the 43 ships attacked, however, it is estimated by Mr. A. H. Pollen; in Lanrf, and Water, that eight submarines could have done the work, and that twelve or thirteen is the maximum number likely to have been employed. * » '* • Taking the kndwn circumstances, into account, it is not at all impossible that Germany has lost so many submarines in tho courseof her pirate war on merchant shipping that she cannot afford to continue it. She entered the war- with so.nettiing less than thirty effective submarines, and however enterprisingly 'she may have since added to her flotillas, she is certainly working on - limited resources. The of. . submarines is an elaborate business, and in Germany's case the work has not always been allowed to proceed without interruptions Her construction yards in Belgium, at all events, have frequently be'en more or less successfully- harried - by British naval and air forces. The training of crews, and especially of officers, also_ takesa good deal of time. Even if it be granted that Germany has probably constructed • and commissioned since she entered tho war twice as many submarines as she previously possessed, she might still be working upon a very narrow margin in her pirate war ' on commerce, assuming, and this is the crux of tho matter) that the British Navy has been conducting a successful anti-submarine campaign. So much is implied in the guarded statements made by the Admiralty and the likelihood that a large number of the , German have been destroyed is the one'thing which lends probability to' the storv that, Germany contemplates a modification of her war on merchantmen. That the campaign would be slackened to any extent for any other reason than a lack of submarines to carry it on'is quite incredible:'lt is only -necessary to look at the details of the campaign and its incidental features of brutal and cold-blooded murder and other flagrant violations of international law to see that such an idea is absurd. « * * « Lack of submarines to continue piratical outrages on merchant shipping would not, of course, mean that. Germany's submarine flotillas were no longer' a factor in the war, but only that she had found it necessary to conserve her remaining strength in these craft to serve their legitimate jpurposo as auxiliaries to her fighting fleets, and more particularly for the time being at the Dardanelles. She is certainly, bound to maintain submarine flotillas at her naval ports on the North Sea coast, and also in the Baltic, though a recent Copenhagen estimate that she has 30 submarines in the latter area may perhaps be exaggerated. i> •#. * * , Apart from messages which tell of a continuation of the Russian retreat there are some interesting references to-day to its general character which deserve attention, ancl furnish an answer to recent German reports about the capture of enormous quantities of war material in the. fortresses which have fallen into their hands.' So far is this from being true, according to a Pctrograd message, that the fortresses have been left as mcro heaps -of debris. It is, in fact, the ruling policy of the Russians, to leave an empty and devastated _ country behind them, and there is no reason to suppose that they have materially departed from this policy at any point of tiieir retreat. An official denial is given to the enemy _ claim that the fortress of Brest-Litowsk was carried by assault. The place was evacuated and destroyed, most of the valuable material whioh it coutained having been removed in good time. It is possible, however, that the falsehoods the German General Staff has lately been circulating uhout tho Etiutorn campaign may in soma dosree scrvfj their intended,

purpose of impressing public opinion 'in Germany and in neutral countries. # * * * Very satisfactory assurances are given to-day that complete accord and unanimity obtain between all the Allied high commands. The assurances _to this cffect given by the Russian Commander-in-Chief and the Russian Foreign Minister might seem superfluous, or even in themselves an evidence of weakness, but it is just as well that such assurances should be given wide publicity at a time when Germany is labouring to sow discord between the nations allied againsfc'hcr. « * * e No decisive action is reported, at time of writing, at tho Dardanelles. In the Balkans the situation is "Still undefined. German newspapers are insisting that a Turco-Bulgarian agreement is still in prospect, but they rely apparently upon an, assumption that Servia- is declining to make the Territorial concession in Macedonia which Bulgaria desires, and the assumption is not borne out. by such news on the subject as has lately arrived from Entente sources. A message from the capital of Servia, stating that an air-reconnais-sance on the northern frontier shows that the Austro-German concentration is not yet adequate for the reported plan of forcing, a passage to Bulgaria, seriously discredits recent reports to the effect that the concentration was in active progress. « # * « Berlin declares that the British announcement of the destruction of a German submarine near Ostend by an dirman is "inexact," inasmuch as the submarine returned to port unharmed. This is an unblushing plagiarism- of the late Mark Twain's celebrated comment on a premature report of his death—that it was much exaggerated—but in all likelihood is means, such an honest disclaimer! British Admiralty 'reports of the destruction of enemy ships are not made upon uncertain evidence,, and the,report in question was evidently made upon full observation, since it was mentioned that an enemy destroyer had located the position of the sunken submarine. It is quite oertain that the Admiralty would not have reported the destruction of the submarine if she had merely been struck by a bomb and dived. • I * if * * A German official report speaks of a cruiser bombardment of Dago, an island off the northern entrance to the Gulf of Riga. This may be indicative of an inclination to _ make another attack on the gulf, but it js possible,i of course, that the affair was only a flying raid. ■