Researcher identifies four ‘megatrends’

Press, 24 May 1988, Page 26

Researcher identifies four ‘megatrends’

Four megatrends — oh infelicitious word — have been identified by Manny Fernandez, boss cockie of Dataquest, the American research company that specialises in computing. They, are: ® Standardisation which is user driven. This was, perhaps, exemplified by MAP, the protocol which was forced on the computer industry by major American industries which were fed up with incompatibility. Another is X4OO, which will allow all electronic messaging system to talk, one with the other. © Alliances. These cover a variety of relations, including mergers, consortiums and other strategic groupings. © Intellectual property. Because of confused legislation, covering patent and copyrights are in a beggar’s muddle. © Competitiveness. Manny Fernandez said: “Enhanced productivity is one of the most important keys to competitiveness, and manufacturing automation may well give the US electronics industry the opportunity to improve its position in world markets.” On specific segments of the industry, he had this to say: © Semiconductors. Shortages of the 256 K and one megabit DRams are expected to continue throughout this year, but supply will begin to exceed demand by mid-1989. (Not all are in agreement. There are signs that this shortage will be over very soon. As in a few weeks’ time). © Computers. The fastest growing segment of the market is technical computers, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.8 per cent. Personal computers are forecast to grow at 7.3 per cent, and business computers at 5.7 per cent. (Again, this is a Dataquest forecast. Other commentators expect a much larger surge in the sales of personal computers.) © Unix and OS/2. These will be the principal operating systems for desktop computers for the next few years. Ultimately, OS/2 will emerge as the operating system of choice, although Dataquest forecasts Unix to gain market share through 1992. — GARETH POWELL