122 , 000 unemployed expected
By
OLIVER RIDDELL
in Wellington
Registered unemployment could rise as high as 122,000 by the end of this year, according to a survey of expectations done for the Reserve Bank. The number, which excluded special work schemes and vacation workers, was expected to be 105,000 by March and increase to 122,000 by December. In its forecasts on registered unemployment last
year the Labour Department was expecting the number to reach 91,000 by March. But in its unemployment figures for January, published yesterday, the Department said they had already reached beyond 101,000.
The Minister of Employment, Mr Goff, said that the department was revising its forecast for March but that this work had not been completed yet. The Reserve Bank said the range of responses to its question on unemploy-
ment suggested that the result be treated with some caution. Survey results showed that respondents expected monetary conditions to stay relatively tight,but to ease by December. Inflationary expectations for the year ahead had fallen by more than 2 per cent since the last survey in September — from 9.8 per cent to 7.7 per cent. By December the annual inflation rate was expected to have declined to 6.7 per cent. Long-term interests of
13 per cent were expected by the end of 1988, with the 90-day bank bill market yield down from 16.3 per cent in March to 14.2 per cent by December. The exchange rate was expected by respondents to depreciate by 3.7 per cent during the course of the year, with the greatest fall being against the United States dollar.
An average decline of 0.4 per cent in real gross domestic product was expected for the year. No significant improvement in the present account
balance was expected. Wage rates were expected to rise by 7 per cent, which was down on the 7.7 per cent expected in the September survey.
Although the expected Government Budget balance for the next two financial years had improved, respondents still expected it to stay in deficit for both 1988 and 1989.
There were 186 respondents — 84 financial, 59 business, 18 agricultural, 10 labour and 15 other.
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Bibliographic details
Press, 25 February 1988, Page 14
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356122,000 unemployed expected Press, 25 February 1988, Page 14
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