The political stakes in N.S.W.

Press, 25 February 1988, Page 12

The political stakes in N.S.W.

The New South Wales election, to be held on March 19, has a great deal more significance than a state election normally has. There is no automatic link in Australia between state elections and Federal elections. Neither does the Federal Government have to go to the voters for another two years. But a heavy defeat for the Labour Government in New South Wales would be a blow against the Labour Government being returned at the next Federal election; the fortunes of state and Federal parties often rise and fall together.

The Labour Government has been in power in New South Wales since early 1976. Its election was a powerful boost to Labour confidence, which had been shaken after the dismissal and defeat of the Whitlam Government at the end of 1975. The win in New South Wales helped keep Labour hopes alive in the long process of regaining Federal power that culminated in Mr Hawke’s victory in 1984. Labour’s defeat in New South Wales will reasonably be considered as the beginning of a slide in the opposite direction.

New South Wales is also important because it is the power base of Mr Hawke. The Australian Labour Party has three factions: the Right, the Left, and the CentreLeft. Mr Hawke’s faction, the Right, is based in New South Wales. Therefore, a weakening of Labour in that state means a weakening of the political strength of the Prime Minister. If Labour loses New South Wales only half the Australian states will be governed by that party. At the moment only Queensland and Tasmania are without Labour

Governments. There is nothing to prevent any or all of the states being governed by parties different from the party holding a majority in Canberra. But there tends to be less tension in the Federal system if the state Governments are of similar persuasion.

The most recent public opinion poll put the New South Wales Opposition coalition, led by Mr Nick Greiner, 8 per cent ahead of Mr Barrie Unsworth’s Labour Party. This lead, if translated into votes would unseat the Government. Mr Unsworth himself has a very slim majority in his own seat.

Labour has recently been set back by the loss of a by-election in Adelaide. The resignation of the powerful Federal Minister and leader of Government business in the House, Mr Mick Young, has embarrassed the party; doubts are being voiced about whether Mr Hawke has the acute political sensitivity he once had; and there is concern about the possibility of taxing superannuation funds and of charging local phone calls according to the time they take.

The Liberal Party is determined to exploit the opportunity that presents itself. The Leader of the Federal Liberal Party, Mr Howard, is placing much weight on ending Labour rule in New South Wales. The defeat of Labour in the state would probably raise Mr Howard’s standing within his own party and secure his position against any challenges. So much is at stake for both Labour and the Liberals in New South Wales that the campaign is likely to have many of the characteristics of a Federal election.