Conflicts put National under strain

Press, 14 October 1985, Page 1

Conflicts put National under strain

By OLIVER RIDDELL in Wellington Events of the last week have brought tensions within the National Party to breaking point. These tensions are occupying the time and energy of the 38 members of the National caucus in Parliament and distracting the party’s membership. Conflicts of policy and among its leaders are now a factor in National’s low rating — 10 points behind Labour, at 40 and 50 respectively — in the latest public opinion poll. At a time of great economic change and uncertainty, and when New Zealand’s traditional defence alliance within A.N.Z.U.S. is unravelling, National is making no inroads on the popularity of

the Labour Party. Not only is this failure confusing party loyalists but it is keeping potential supporters away, and is now of great concern to National’s 38 elected politicians. The relationship now, and in the future, of three of its leaders is at the heart of National’s dilemma and is belatedly becoming the focus of its attention. The three are the former Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, but now a back-bencher, Sir Robert Muldoon; the leader of the National Party in Opposition for the last 10 months, Mr McLay; and his deputy leader for the same period, Mr Bolger. Mr Bolger is to a degree a spectator of the battle of the other two, but he stands

to be the chief beneficiary. Sir Robert has not accepted his demotion with good grace. He has been encouraged to continue to take a high profile by his high rating in the polls, strong and active support for him, a belief that his policies up to his' election loss in 1984 would prove to. be justified, and low levels of public support for Mr McLay and National since his demotion. Sir Robert has sought vindication of his policies. Part of his campaign for vindication . was in his book published earlier this year. He has continued to address very well attended public meetings throughout New Zealand. Events seem to be working in his favour. The vehe-

ment rejection of so-called “Muldoonism” and a tightly regulated economy which National showed after its election loss is becoming progressively more muted. This owes something to the pressures of economic change on many people. ' Farmers and rural people, who now make up the heart of the National Party after its devastation in the big cities, are hurting in the new economic climate. They are turning to the National Party and urging a strong economic policy. As they reject the free-market approach of the Labour Government, so do they reject the similar beliefs of Mr McLay — their new leader — and his closest associates. “What they seek in “Mul-

doonism,” although they no longer call it that and they v may not want Sir Robert r Muldoon back to implement t it. Sir Robert naturally c takes encouragement from I this turn of events. t Mr McLay and his sup- F porters do not. Not only ” does it make them more s vulnerable to Sir Robert, . but it is also shocking news F for a party now based in the ‘ provinces that wants to re- F gain metropolitan support. The trend at National’s ttl annual conference in Christ- i church during July was to concentrate on provincial i d rather than metropolitan ; v concerns. As farmers fare ’ c worse economically, and b small rural towns feel the a pinch, this concentration is si intensifying.

Grassroots pressure within National is for a regulated economy. With this vindication of his policies, supporters of Sir Robert Muldoon can claim that his replacement was a mistake and if the policies have been vindicated then sb has the man. Sir Robert could do much to calm the tensions within National. However, with vindication running his way he has less and less reason to rally his strength behind the new leadership. For Mr McLay, the outlook is dark and getting darker. His month overseas, which attracted a lot of criticism within National, both from his supporters and opponents, has made his situation worse. He has the loyalty of

; most members of his i caucus, but they no longer i fight for him. This is a big - change from six months ? ago, even, when his coli leagues were urging for him i to be given time to establish 5 himself. Today, his coli leagues lack the expectation that he will. J When Mr McLay walks into Parliament it is like a r Christian fronting up to the lions. The air has an elec- ■ trie quality. Labour eyes are riveted on him, waiting for him to stand up, or to say something, so that they ’ can react. f In this atmosphere of an- , tagonism, he seems a lonely ! figure. His front-bench col- ; leagues seem unable, or unwilling, to give him any f more moral support than

they gave to Sir Robert Muldoon in his last months as Prime Minister. Just as Sir Robert after nearly nine years as Prime Minister seemed to have forfeited the active support of many of his colleagues, so does Mr McLay after less than a year as Leader of the Opposition. It is an extraordinary situation. It is a reflection of the morale of the National Party which is 10 points behind in the polls when there is so much for which it could be attacking the Government and attracting public support To page 2