A puppet on a longer string

Press, 29 June 1985, Page 18

A puppet on a longer string

From “The Economist,” London

On June 17, a new, mainly black Council of Ministers took over the Government of Namibia — in theory. South Africa’s latest attempt to create an alternative to the guerrilla-backed South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo) may look slightly more convincing than previous efforts, but that is not saying very much. The trouble is that any regime installed by the South Africans is almost bound to be seen by local blacks as a puppet. The new Namibian administration, formed by a coalition of six parties known as the Multi-Party Conference, is neither elected nor representative. South Africa’s President Botha has simply given each of the six an equal number of representatives in the national assembly, except for Mr Dirk Mudge’s Democratic Turnhalle Alliance, whose 11 tribal groups were arbitrarily counted as three parties.

The result is lopsided even by South Africa’s yardstick. The Herero tribe, which makes up 6 per cent of the total population, has two Ministers and two Deputy Ministers; the whites, who make up 7 per cent, have the same number; but the Ovambos, who add up to more than half of all Namibians — and provide the backbone of Swapo — get only one. All the same, the new multiracial Government has higher hopes than the previous one run by Mr Mudge from 1979 until 1983, because it has much wider powers. In theory it can scrap all apartheid laws, make the schools multiracial, and narrow the gap between rich whites and poor blacks. In practice it will probably be able to do little of this, because the coalition contains such an array of opposites that it will most likely be doomed to immobility. At one end of the spectrum is Mr Moses Katjiuongua, leader of

the faction of the South West African National Union, an authentic nationalist movement that predates Swapo. Mr Katjiuongua spent years in exile, many of them in Peking. At the inauguration ceremony on June 17 he wore a Mao suit. Close to him is Mr Andreas Shipanga, a founder of Swapo who fell out with its leader, Mr Sam Nujoma, and formed his own party. At the other extreme is Mr Eban van Zijl, a member of the Afrikaners’ National Party, whose Namibian branch is to the Right of the South African Government. In between is a trio of DTA Ministers — Mr Mudge and two Namibians of mixed race.

The new set-up is unlikely to impress the Ovambos in the north, or the many blacks in the south who sympathise with Swapo. Namibia today sometimes seems like two different countries: the southern two thirds, containing a third of the population, is peaceful,

although the mainly white troops of the South African army and the mainly black ones of Namibia’s home-grown forces are much in evidence.

In the northern third, Swapo and the South African army have been fighting a vicious war for 19 years. Official statistics say that more than 9000 Swapo guerrillas and 1341 civilians have died in it. Trapped between the demands of the guerrillas, whom they generally support and often fear, and the army, which they fear, most people are too frightened to talk to visitors.

According to missionaries, who wield great influence in the area, the war can be stopped only by the implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 435, providing for United Nationssupervised elections, which Swapo would almost certainly win. The touchstone of the new order is money. Nearly 99 per cent of personal tax revenue, used for

education, health, agriculture, and social welfare, comes from the country's 71,000 whites and goes to a “separate” white administration headed by Mr van Zijl’s party. That spells a huge imbalance in the money available to the different, racially segregated services.

If the new Government is to win support from the blacks it will have to insist on getting more money for the blacks. The whites' National Party might then walk out of the coalition.

Mr Botha would be very reluctant to let that happen, because he would then be accused of abandoning Namibia’s whites to the mercy of Left-wing blacks. But if he prevents the black Ministers getting their way, ’ and allows the whites to veto any change of substance, the bulk of the Namibian people will be all the more convinced that the new Government is a worthless puppet. Copyright, “The Economist.”