Population growth drops but big problems still

Press, 23 June 1978, Page 13

Population growth drops but big problems still

By

STAN DARLING

They used to wax philosophically over how many angels could stand on the head of a pin. With population pressures what they are, the modern question is how many humans can stand on a whole planet without too much jostling for elbow room.

The 10-year-old United Nations Fund for Population Activities says worldwide population g r owth is tapering off, but there are doubts that it is tapering fast enough to avoid massive problems in the next century. In 1975, the predicted world population in the year 2000 was 4 billion; just three years later, the latest prediction is 5.8 billion.

Mexico City, a mere second-rater in massive urban population a few years ago, will be by far the ' biggest city in the world by the turn of the century. According to population trends, it may have 31.6 million residents by 2000. It had 8.5 M in 1970. The standard king of metropolitan areas, Tokyo-Yoko-hama, will be left behind, with a 26M population compared to about 15M in 1970.

“Cities in every region are expected to grow in the next two decades to magnitudes totally unfamiliar to town planners,” says the 1978 United Nations report. It seems an understatement.

How to keep them down on the farm in developing countries will become more of a vexed question than ever.

Even with signs of a fertility decline, progress in making population planning a vital part of

the development of many countries “is deplorably slow,” the United Nations report says. But it was good to see the number of countries which at least now considered their fertility levels too high. That number rose from 42 in 1974 to 54 in 1976; together, they had 82 per cent of the developing world’s population. Seven nations, which have one per cent of the developing world’s popu-

lation, actually want to raise their national fertility levels. Only eight of 144 developing countries surveyed by the United Nations restrict access to the use of ways to regulate fertility. In fact, 29 countries have a double standard ■ — they have no wish to change fertility rates, but provide direct support to activities that regulate fertility. An increasing number of countries seek United Nations Fund help, and government contributions to family planning projects have risen in the last few years. In spite of all those encouraging signs, the pattern of fertility decline has been uneven. There is no guarantee that the decline will continue at such a pace, or not reverse itself if catastrophes wipe out children in parts of the world heavily dependent on children for income-producing work. Fertility data from which experts work is “deplorably inadequate and offers only precarious footholds for the serious

analyst,” according to the United Nations report. Only some 200 M of the developing world’s 300 billion people are covered by reliable data. But encouragingly, hopeful information exists. There is some data from Chinese sources that birth rates there have dropped to nearly 25 in 1000 persons, a drop of about 20 per cent in the last decade. In India, a 10 per cent fall in fertility may

have occurred during the same decade. At the same time, however, there has been an “unprecedented rise in life expectancy,” according to the report. Two problems could be paramount — how to care for the added number of elderly while keeping them active and productive, and how’ to cope with the child-pro-ducing potential of the large number of children growing up today. The percentage of young persons below 25 years of age is rising, bringing a potential for massive rises in fertility. The total number of persons more than 60 years of age is also sizable. In 1970, there were 304 M persons in that category. By 2000, that number could be almost double at 581 M persons.

It is estimated that 65 per cent of that age group will be in the developing world.

Where will all these people go? If present trends continue, many of them will go to cities that cannot handle them even today.

Every week about 5000 proverty-stricken Brazilians arrived on the outskirts of Rio de Janeiro. The worldwide migration total from rural areas could be 75,000 a day. Conditions may be bad in the cities, but at least many migrants feel that ther are more opportun i t i e s for are more opportunities for status and money. According to one expert, there is a consistent trend in many developing countries for the rural poor to keep getting poorer. Those who attach themselves to cities have a better chance to keep pace with living

In many countries, there are also better chances for health care and higher education near cities. Where rural life is in decline, there is simply no other choice. The cities get most of a nation’s resources.

It could be many years before anyone can offer a good answer to the Indian villager, stricken by tuberculosis and unable to work, who wonders what he can do but produce more children to eventually work and help out the family. Population pressures in the developing world are staggering, but any reluctance of richer nations to slow their own population growth also creates problems.

According to the United Nations report, a child born in an industrialised society will consume 20 to 40 times as much as a child born in a poor country. Small population increases in rich nations put about eight times as much pressure on world resources as large increases in the poor world.