FOREIGN POLICY PERSPECTIVES Hanoi's intentions watched by N.Z. and others

Press, Volume CXV, Issue 33938, 3 September 1975, Page 10

FOREIGN POLICY PERSPECTIVES Hanoi's intentions watched by N.Z. and others

(By

STUART McMILLAN)

The take-over by the Pathet Lao in Laos means that the whole of Indo-China is now under Communist Governments. North Vietnam, by far the strongest country in the area, will doubtless want to see sympathetic Governments in Cambodia and Laos. Time will show if it wants something more than that: the formation of an Indo-China bloc of its own, which would make it a considerable Power in the area.

Hanoi’s intentions towards its neighbours are being followed closely by New Zealand and other countries.

It is not many years ago it was believed that China’s intentions towards SouthEast Asia were the most significant. The “Review of Defence Policy, 1966” said: “Attempts to expand by -force the area of Communist influence or control in SouthEast Asia represent a threat to New Zealand’s national interests. This threat does not stem from a direct menace to New Zealand’s own territory by Communist Chinese forces, at this time at

least, but from Communist China’s active role as the ‘exporter of revolution’ throughout the area.” There were also ideas around that Chinese troops would help to bring into power governments of a similar ideology to China’s. DEBATABLE POINTS

How well founded any of it was is debatable. Apart from the Chinese take-over of Tibet, which was a special case, the only times Chinese troops have fought have been against the Soviet Union in 1969, against India in 1962, and against the United States in North Korea during the Korean War. In each case China was defending its borders. North Vietnam may prove no more aggressive than has China •<— though it will not compromise its legitimate interests.

Many countries, including New Zealand, believe that the present Chinese policy is not to promote instability in South-East Asia. China is believed to want stable diplomatic relations with the existing governments of the area and to be very worried about its relations with the Soviet Union. CREDIBLE FORCE

Because of its fear of the Soviet Union China hopes that the United States will maintain a credible force in South-East Asia, although not on the Asian mainland. China believes that if the United States left the area, the Soviet Union would move in and China would face the Soviet Union on its

southern coast as well as on its northern border.

New Zealand’s foreign policy towards South-East Asia is based on the belief that the ideological split and the general bad relationship between the Soviet Union and China is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, and the hope that the United States will continue to maintain a strong force in the area even though it will not be on the Asian mainland. CHINESE INFLUENCE

Although China may not actively promote instability in South-East Asia, apart from a few token pledges of support to such organisations as the Malaysian Communist Party, Chinese influence is bound to have a strong and apparent effect.

There are substantial Chinese communities in many South-East Asian countries who are interested in and attracted by what is happening in China. There is also the influence of the Chinese models for development, particularly of agriculture. China has the greatest population of any country in the world and manages to feed, clothe, and provide jobs for all. Any poor country interested in improving its lot is bound to take some notice of how it has been done. But whether revolution is encouraged or not, the elements of instability are present throughout SouthEast Asia. The majority of the peoples of the area are poor farmers. Most are becoming poorer. In many areas the peasants do not own their land and suffer the whims of landlords. The Green Revolution failed partly because of rapidly growing populations and partly because of the problems of increased use of fertiliser which the highyielding rice varieties needed. NOT FOR STABILITY

Some people, looking at this situation, argue that the South-East Asian peasant has no real interest in stability, that the status quo does not do much for him and he must want it changed. In this view what, happened in Indo-China and what could happen in the

jrest of mainland South-East Asia, and through the archipelago, is an historical process: economic justice 'is being established. It was foolish for New Zealand to I have become involved in I trying to stop it and New I Zealand should stay com|pletely out of it militarily. The Foreign Affairs I Ministry agrees about not' becoming involved militarily! but considers that each of I the countries of the area has! its own problems, which! would make an overthrow ofj governments by groups determined to establish economic justice for all unlikely. Racial factors would have too great an influence. Malaysia’s greatest internal problem, for instance, is the relations between the Malays and the Chinese. The Malaysian Communist Party has few Malay members. The Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and Indonesia are all members of the Association of SouthEast Asian Nations, and it is not ytet clear just what role the organisation will play.

Three A.S.E.A.N. countries — Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand — recently established relations with China, probably hoping that China would restrain Hanoi. N.Z. TIES With each of the countries in A.S.E.A.N., New Zealand has strong ties, some like Malaysia and Singapore for historical and Commonwealth reasons, some for reasons which are harder nosed, like trade. Indonesia and the Philippines are trading partners and countries to which New Zealand extends aid. Beside trade, which is one of the main aims of foreign policy, there is security. At the moment Indonesia is concerned mainly with its internal problems, apart from East Timor, but it is not long ago that its policies were aggressive towards its neighbours.

New Zealand forces are expected to stay in Malaysia for another two years, but barring radical changes in New Zealand’s foreign policy are not expected to take any combatant role in Asia. There was a rumour some weeks ago that New Zealand

troops might be assigned to a role in the United Nations Command ini South Korea, but there is no substance in it. New Zealand was one of the spon-i sors of a recent resolution! in the United Nations that the United Nations Com-] mand be disbanded in South! Korea.