MR VORSTER’S GUEST WHAT EFFECT ON AFRICA WILL BANDA’S VISIT HAVE?

Press, Volume CXI, Issue 32706, 8 September 1971, Page 16

MR VORSTER’S GUEST WHAT EFFECT ON AFRICA WILL BANDA’S VISIT HAVE?

(Reprinted from the "Economist" by arrangement)

Plato believed that wise men talk because they have something to say; fools because they have to say something. It is still not clear whether those black African leaders who believe in talking to South Africa are wise men or fools. It does look as if the visit of President Banda of Malawi was an unexpected success, not only for Mr Vorster (he was able to show the world that he is prepared to sup with a black man) and for Dr Banda (he was enthusiastically received by both blacks and whites and probably took home some cash to boot), but also for race relations in the land of apartheid. And it is this—the progress made in softening the effect of apartheid —that must be the rest of the world’s criterion for judging the success or failure of Dr Banda’s journey.

It is too early to say how Dr Banda’s achievement measures up to this criterion. To some extent it will depend on whether he can persuade other African leaders to go to Pretoria and talk to the South Africans not just about aid and trade but about apartheid too. It has been suggested that a summit meeting may. be held early next year in Malawi to encourage such a migration. Two showmen Such a meeting, if it takes place, will be a success only if it is attended by leaders of states which lie beyond South Africa’s economic and military shadow. One such would be President Houpbouet-Boigny of the Ivory Coast, who has been a prominent supporter of the idea of. a dialogue with South Africa. The trouble is that one quality Mr HouphouetBoigny and Dr Banda have in common may serve to impede rather than further the cause they ostensibly share: both presidents like to monopolise the limelight That may prevent Mr Hou-phouet-Boigny making the pilgrimage to Zomba to play second fiddle to an acknowledged master in the art of showmanship. So Dr Banda may find himself playing host to a group of leaders whose fame does not extend much beyond the frontiers of Swaziland, Lesotho and Madagascar. Eyes on E.E.C. The South Africans, of course, will be anxious to make the gathering as large as possible. In the hope of expanding the attendance they will probably encourage the leaders of the Bantustans —the tribal “homelands” established for South Africa’s 15 million blacks—to go to Zomba. Some of these men have shown they are prepared to use the rope apartheid gives them to try to hang their white masters. They have little chance of success, but a trip to Malawi might draw the world’s attention to their battle, and might even lead to pressure on the South African Government to allow direct foreign' investment in the Bantustans. This, in turn, might lead to a small alleviation of their grinding poverty.

But much as the South Africans desire foreign investment, their current economic thoughts are focused even more anxiously on the uncertainty surrounding the future of gold after the floating of the dollar and on the prospect of their diminishing world markets after Britain joins the Common Market. It is the possible loss of British markets, in particular, that makes them look north to black Africa the natural outlet for their agricultural produce and manufactured goods. Only one thing prevents them mopping up this potentially valuable market: the opposition of certain African statesmen, foremost among them Zambia’s President Kaunda.

Power in Zambia

It is no secret that Mr Vorster would be happy to see Mr Kaunda ousted from power. He will certainly take pleasure from the challenge that Mr Simon Kapwepwe has now issued in Zambia.

The fact that Mr Kapwepwe threatens to be just as hostile to South Africa as Mr Kaunda is need not worry the South African Prime Minister. He knows that if Mr Kaunda cannot hold Zambia together under a democratic system, Mr Kapwepwe cannot either.

The most likely result of Mr Kaunda’s downfall would be a short-lived civilian government followed by a

military takeover. Either of these could lead to a detente with South Africa. Even Mr Kapwepwe, by his declared willingness to join forces with the official opposition African National Congress, which believes in a conciliatory policy towards the white south, has shown that he is prepared to compromise on this issue. And a military government, if it conformed to African rather than Arab practice, would probably be more conservative than its civilian predecessor. So Mr Vorster must be rubbing his hands at the situation in Zambia. Yet Mr Kaunda probably still has enough political skill and national popularity to hold on. If Mr Kaunda does withstand Mr Kapwepwe’s challenge, he may emerge stronger than before. He may then decide to devote most of his time to Zambia’s own problems. But he should also give some thought to relations with South Africa. Mr Kaunda has been humiliated by having to import large, quantities of maize from Rhodesia; he has been exasperated by the inability of the Rhodesian guerrillas to

settle their suicidal quarrels; clearly his policy towards the south, honourable though it is, is not working the way he wanted it to. He should therefore keep an open mind on the subject of a dialogue. Movement in S. Africa This does not mean that he should, or could, join hands with Dr Banda and accompany him to Pretoria: Dr Banda’s friendship with the white minority regimes goes far beyond just talking —he is reportedly co-operat-ing with the Portuguese m their campaign against the nationalist guerrillas in Mozambique. But Mr Kaunda, like the rest of the world, should watch closely what happens in South Africa in the wake of Dr Banda’s visit. He should not forget that only last month 45 leading South African churchmen likened their country to Nazi Germany. But nor should he fail to realise that there is genuine movement in the South African situation; and that, though it is still too soon to say what will come of it, he might help to keep the movement going.