Japan foreseen as No. 1 Power

Press, Volume CX, Issue 32450, 10 November 1970, Page 19

Japan foreseen as No. 1 Power

(N.Z.P.A.-Reuter—Copyright) NEW YORK, Nov. 9. Japan may well become the world’s No. 1 economic Power by late this century or early in the next, according to a book published today in New York. The author, an American expert on national security problems, Herman Kahn, adds that Japan’s economic dominance is likely to be accompanied by a much more significant role in the world scene.

In “The Emerging Japanese Super-State: Challenge and Response” (published by Prentice-Hall), Mr Kahn writes: “I have come very close to a belief that the Jap-

anese have, in effect, discovered or developed an ability to grow, economically, with a rapidity that is unlikely to be surpassed in the period at issue—and that might well result, late in the twentieth century or early in the twenty-first, in Japan’s possessing the largest Gross National Product in-the world. “Whether or not this would result in Japan’s becoming the major influence on the politics ■ and society of the twenty-first century remains an open issue. “But it would not be surprising if the dynamism of Japanese growth were accompanied, or followed by, an equal dynamism in other areas, such as scientific, technological, cultural, and religious. Therefore, if—as is not unlikely—the Japanese want to exert world-wide influence they may well succeed in doing so. ’ *•

Mr Kahn, who is the director of the Hudson Institute, which is devoted to research into strategic and political problems, continues: “It is sometimes said that in 1945 Japan went, in a very few days, from being the most militaristic nation in the world to being the most pacifistic. I do not predict a sharp change in the reverse direction. “But I do predict ttiat during the early and mid-70s, we may find a nUmber of crucial changes occurring in Japanese attitudes towards defence (including nuclear weapons), foreign policy, self-image, as well as national and international expectations. “It is probably as impossible to seek to become one of the . top three economic Powers of the world, much less No. 1, without eventually becoming entangled in inter-

national political problems, as it is to become an Olympic swimming champion without getting wet. “Therefore, if, as I argue, Japan continues to grow at rates comparable to those she has achieved in the last 20 years—and does so for at least another decade —she will surely deserve to be judged the third most important international Power in the world. She should far surpass in national power, in influence and in political significance, her giant neighbour, China.

“. . . This ‘super’ Japan will present the rest of the world with opportunities and challenges. In fact, many Europeans in the late 70s are likely to feel that Japan presents them with the same kind of upsetting economic and technological ‘pushes' and ‘pulls’ they: now feel from the Uniterr states.”