Rhodesia: Straws In The Wind ?

Press, Volume CVI, Issue 31366, 11 May 1967, Page 12

Rhodesia: Straws In The Wind ?

The Rhodesian rebellion is a year and a half old. Mr Smith no doubt remains as anxious for a settlement with Britain as he was a year ago. Rhodesia, notwithstanding a satisfactory balance of payments in the first year, will feel the impact of sanctions more harshly from now onwards. In the first year after U.D.I. exports fell 36 per cent; but industrial production was down not quite 7 per cent and retail sales 9 per cent. The drop in exports was offset by import substitution and by the creation of tobacco and sugar stockpiles. There must be a limit to stockpiling if those basic industries are to survive. In its first year, “independent” Rhodesia had a net foreign earnings surplus of £2O million, which the Government would regard as satisfactory although it represents only half a normal year’s balance. Mr Smith had urged general acceptance of the need to fight sanctions for an indefinite period. This, he explained, would require basic “ adaptations ” in the economy. Yet he has plainly not given up hope of reopening negotiations with the British Government. Last month the traditional reference to the Queen was dropped from the Rhodesian Front’s Charter of Principles. Although this looked like a step towards a republic, Mr Smith did not intend it to be so interpreted. It was a placatory gesture to the ultra-conservative wing of the Front while he firmly resisted the demand for a republic. Clearly he is keeping the way open for another approach by Mr Wilson—with the understanding that the Throne may resume its rightful place when the present deadlock is resolved.

The impression is growing that the United Kingdom Government will eventually have to see the matter in this light. In spite of the anxieties of businessmen, confidence and morale appear high in Salisbury. A dissolution of the corporate railway system serving Zambia and Rhodesia is being negotiated, with Zambia taking the initiative —not willingly, but to protect its own interests. Agreement would release to Rhodesia £7 million of hard currency held back by Zambia as a precautionary measure since U.D.I. Division of the system, in the Rhodesian view, would substantially cut operating costs. There are other pointers to a realisation of Rhodesian hopes for an agreed solution. External travel by Rhodesians remains almost normal in volume, and tourists are being granted about three times the travel funds allowed by the British Government. The Minister responsible for law and order asserts that there is virtually no African “under- “ ground ” and no security problem. African nationalist opinion is changing. The success of Rhodesia’s white-supremacy propaganda abroad, particularly in the United States, where there is diminishing enthusiasm for sanctions, is gloomily accepted by African nationalists. Mr Wilson may have to read these signs as justifying a further approach to Mr Smith. Mr Wilson has said that majority mle in Rhodesia will be granted not according to a calendar but by judging African achievement. This, Salisbury may reasonably argue, is a significant retreat from his earlier requirement that there must be “no independence before “majority rule”.