AERO ENGINES THE FIGHT FOR SHARES IN A £2,000M. MARKET IS ON

Press, Volume CV, Issue 31016, 23 March 1966, Page 18

AERO ENGINES THE FIGHT FOR SHARES IN A £2,000M. MARKET IS ON

IBy

MICHAEL DONNE.

air correspondent of the “Financial Times. I

/Reprinted from the “Financial Times" by arrangement I

With a world market estimated to be worth at least £2OOO million over the next ten to fifteen years, each of the major aero-engine manufacturers is now intensifying its plans to capture as much of this business as it can. In Britain, both Rolls-Royce and Bristol Siddeley have plans for new engines, while in the United States, from which much ot the new airframe business seems likely to come, the two giants, General Electric and Pratt and Whitney, are also well advanced on major new projects.

The approximate size of the market has been analysed in recent months by Rolls-Royce as part of its efforts to determine its future activities. Currently, the company is so busy that it is seriously concerned at the shortage of skilled labour, especially machinists, and it is having to subcontract work out. With Spey engines for Maritime Comets and Phantom fighters alone, the industry has come out of the recent Defence White Paper with well over £loom. of new work. It will also get part of the work on the nuclear propulsion unit for the fifth hun-ter-killer nuclear submarine, and continue to work on such engines as Speys for Buccaneer fighters, Conways for VC-lOs, Darts for Andovers for Transport Command and Avons for Lightning fighters, while the new RB-172 jet engine for the Anglo-French Jaguar( jointly with Turbomeca of France) is also likely to become big business in the years ahead. At the same time, its products power 1764 turbine-engined airliners or about half the world’s total. The market study just completed by Rolls-Royce indicates that between 1970 and 1980 there will be a world market for at least 400 longrange subsonic high-density jet airliners of the Boeing 747-Douglas DC-10 “jumbo” variety, seating 350 passengers or more each, worth about £2300 million, or about £5l million per aircraft. In the high-density short-to-medium range bracket, for aircraft of the “air-bus” variety, there will be another new market for at least 550 aircraft, worth about £l6OO million or up to about £3 million each. These give a total market in these categories alone of £3900 million and they exclude the almost immeasurable demand for hundreds of airliners in the very small classes—such as Dutch F-28 Fellowship and possibly also “baby” One-Elevens, or in the projected Hawker Siddeley HS-136 category. Rolls-Royce estimates that in the “jumbo” class the demand for installed engines and spares will be about 2000, worth £720 million and for 1430 engines in the short-to-medium bracket, worth some £515 million a total of £1235 million. If the engines for the very small classes of aircraft are added in, the total world engine market in the 1970-80 period is likely to run at least as high as £2OOO million for aircraft valued at up to £5OOO million. Few of the other engine companies would disagree with this view, and some might even put the figures higher, since the study also

excludes the market for super-. sonic airliners. This alone' has been variously estimated at anything up to 600 aircraft in the 19705, of which the Anglo-French Concord, using four Bristol Siddeley Snecma Olympus 593 engines, will account for around 170200, the rest coming from the U.S. companies—either Lockheed with its L-2000 or Boeing with its “swingingwings" Type 733. Both the U.S. types will use four engines each, either from General Electric or Pratt and Whitney (the final choice of both engine or airframe manufacturer is likely to be made this year), so that a market for several hundreds of big engines is certainly here, worth many millions of pounds. Market Pending Outside the supersonic field, it seems likely that the most significant market will be among the long-haul highdensity “jumbo" jets and the shorter haul "air-bus” aircraft. In both these fields the companies are actively interested, and both Rolls-Royce and Bristol Siddeley are working on designs for big engines in the 30,000 to 40,0001bs thrust class. The RollsRoyce entrant is the RB-178, now in what is known as the “Phase One" stage, with a “demonstrator” engine being built and expected to run on the test bed within the next few months.

It is hoped that by the time this “demonstrator” engine functions decisions will have been taken to go ahead both with the Boeing 747Douglas DC-10 type of aircraft, and the Anglo-French air-bus, so that a market may well have established itself for either of the big engines before the end of this year. The RB-178 is probably as important to the long-term future of Rolls-Royce as have been, and are, the Dart and the Spey. It will be expensive —probably costing between £2O million and £5O million to develop—and the Government as well as the company is likely to be involved in it financially. One of the matters currently causing concern to the engine and airframe manufacturers is the delay in getting this air-bus project off the ground. It is argued in the aerospace industry that it ought to be under way by the middle of this year at the latest, if the big waiting market (estimated at over 100 aircraft in Europe alone) is not to be snapped up by the Boeing and Douglas with air-bus versions of their own existing aircraft.

Recently a major new element in world aero-engine competition was the decision by Bristol Siddeley of Pratt and Whitney of the United States, and Snecma of France

jointly to explore the possibilities of working together on advanced big jet engines for airliners. Behind this move was the knowledge that, while the market over the next ten to fifteen years may be vast, not every manufacturer is going to be successful in it, and that in view of the heavy development costs involved it would be better to try to get together. Joint Studies I Bristol and Snecma have 'already been working well together on the Concord engine, and on the smaller Mars series of power-plants for a wide range of aircraft, while Pratt and Whitney has a small financial stake in Snecma. Thus, a major new link was formed, and it is known that as a result the three companies have been jointly studying an engine of comparable size to the Rolls-Royce RB-178. An announcement about this engine, which so far has been kept under tight wraps, is expected soon. Apart from its work on the big engine, and on the Olympus 593 for the Concord supersonic airliner. Bristol Siddeley i also currently has plenty of [work in such fields as vertical take-off. with its Pegasus engine for the Hawker Siddeley P-1127 V.T.O.L. (vertical take-off Lift) fighter. The Defence White Paper made it clear that this aircraft was now to go ahead, and the ultimate order is expected to be for around 100 aircraft, worth about £lOO million of which the engine component is likelv to be at least one-third. Rolls-Rovce is also active in the V.T.O.L. field, notably with its SR-8193 engine (jointly under development with Bristol Siddeley and M.A.N. Turbomotoren of Munich) for the West German/ Italian V.A.K.-191R V.T.O L strike fighter, and with its R-8162 light-weight lift-iet for such projects as the French Mirage lil-V. and the German V.I-101 and Dornier DO-31 It also has a pact with a U.S. company (not disclosed officially but believed to be Allison) to develop a new type of lift-jet engine, on which it sets great store for the future.

The other most significant new engine development in recent months stems from the United States Government's decision to go ahead with the giant C-5A military freighter, and the subsequent decision by Lockheed (which won the military design competition) to start work on an eventual civil version, the L-500. General Electric of the United States is now building the big GE-1/6 turbo-fan engine of 40.0001bs thrust to power the military C-SA, and it seems likely that the same manufacturer will eventually provide the engines for the civil version.