U.S. Recession In 1963 Held Likely

Press, Volume CI, Issue 29854, 21 June 1962, Page 11

U.S. Recession In 1963 Held Likely

(N.Z. Press Association—Copyright) ATLANTIC CITY (New Jersey), June 20. A recession was likely next year, but it was too early to tell yet whether the stock market drop would hasten it, the United States Commissioner of Labour Statistics, Mr Ewan Clague, said yesterday.

Mr Clague said a recession had been expected next year, even before the market began its decline "The only question has been exactly when it is coming" The prediction was based on chartings of the post-war economy, which showed an economic decline every two or three years But the highs and lows of the economy appeared to be becoming more gradual Mr Clague discussed the current economic position at he opening session of the twentieth inter-state conference on labour statistics The lack of a spectacular rate of economic growth in the United States was probably one reason for the stock market decline, he said

Spending for capital investment had remained reasonably steady for several years, while increased spending by Americans had gone mostly into services. He said the market drop reflected the realisation of investors that inflation was not in prospect “This is more important than personalities or loss of confidence. It’s a matter of basic economics.” he said However, if the market continued to drop, ‘l'd be worried about a recession early in 1963 instead of later.”