REVERSE FOR MR STEVENSON

Press, Volume XCIII, Issue 27928, 27 March 1956, Page 11

REVERSE FOR MR STEVENSON

U.S, Speculation On Party Candidate [Specially Written for the N.Z.P.A. by FRANK OLIVER] WASHINGTON, March 26. As Sir Winston Churchill said to Mr Harry Truman on the eve of his 1P45 defeat: “Electioneering is always full of surprises.” Mr Adlai Stevenson and a few million other people are echoing that remark, and political experts are examining the figures from Minnesota and trying to arrive at conclusions logical or otherwise. It seems to this correspondent that there are certain inferences that can safely be drawn.

The unusually large turnout of Democratic voters indicates that this is not going to be any lackadaisical election year and that the farm issue will be a big one, for Minnesota is a big farming State, and the large Democratic vote must be read as criticism of the Administration’s farm policies.

It emerges that Senator Estes Kefauver is a great vote-getter, that his indefatigable speech-making and folksy handshaking pay off. People like his personality. At a later stage he invaded Minnesota, where Mr Stevenson unquestionably had been strong with full local party backing, yet Senator Kefauver wiped the floor with them. Republican Strategy

It seems fair to say that a number of Republicans did cross over to vote for Senator Kefauver to embarrass Mr Stevenson, and. of course, this indicates that they regarded Mr Stevenson as a strong candidate. It is far from unusual in American elections for one party to build up a man in opposition whom they think can bp beaten.

Four years ago the Democrats tried hard to build up Senator Robert Taft, feeling sure they could defeat him, whereas they were not sure that they could beat Mr Eisenhower. It would be good strategy for the Republicans now to build up Senator Kefauver. for they feel very confident that they could defeat him. Senator Kefauver’s victory in Minnesota. which must be regarded as an astounding result, certainly makes him the Democratic front runner at this point, but to stand a fairly sure chance of nomination he must continue to do superbly in the other primaries, for he has much to overcome in his own party. The fact must be faced that he is not widely popular in his own party He always seems out of tune with the party leaders and the party machine and politicians generally, and he has to face the fact that he is extremely unpopular in the Southern States. Too Liberal for South For the South he is far too liberal, and the South abhors his views on desegregation. Added to that he is a warm supporter of Israel in his views on foreign policy. Thus, unless he can enter the nominating convention with a very large number of pledged votes .and carry the convention by storm, as Mr Wendell Wilkie carried the Republican 1940 convention by storm, the chances are the party machine could block him. Ancf what of Mr Stevenson? He has been struck a hard blow. He can recover, but his recovery must be good, and he must do not well, but exceedingly well, in the other primaries if he is to secure nomination.

If he can sway the people now as he did in 1952 he has a chance. If he wants to be a standard bearer then he must fight for it as hard as any man ever did fight back. He cannot be counted out yet, but he has suffered a shattering blow, and so have his friends and supporters everywhere. If Mr Stevenson does not recover and if Senator Kefauver does not continue his victorious stride through the primaries to an unassailable position, then the chances look good for Governor Harriman of New York, the inactive candidate waiting for support to rally to him, or for any one of three or four other prominent Democrats, and the Democratic convention promises to be a rowdy, rousing, fascinating affair.

All the political dovecotes are aflutter, and overnight animated speculation has become the national pastime