The Auckland Star. WITH WHICH ARE INCORPORATED The Evening News, Morning News. The Echo and The Sun. SATURDAY, MAY 8, 1943. LOOKING AHEAD IN PACIFIC WAR

Auckland Star, Volume LXXIV, Issue 108, 8 May 1943, Page 4

The Auckland Star. WITH WHICH ARE INCORPORATED The Evening News, Morning News. The Echo and The Sun. SATURDAY, MAY 8, 1943. LOOKING AHEAD IN PACIFIC WAR

THE diversity of views concerning the prospect of the Pacific war is increased by the prediction of the United States News, described as a semi-official publication. Although some months ago there were official intimations that this year the United Nations' forces would turn from the defensive to the offensive, the prospect now is said to be that even a limited offensive will not be undertaken before next year and that an "all-out" attack should not be expected until late in 1944 and in 1945—provided the Allied plans for the defeat of Germany are completed in time. This is in rough accord with, though slightly more optimistic than, Mr.'Churchill's prediction that Germany might be defeated in 1944 or 1945. The assumption common to each is that it will not be possible to launch a full-scale offensive agamst Japan until a substantial part of the great force that will be needed to defeat Germany can be released for service in the Pacific. It should be borne in mind that, even when that time comes, many months will be needed to transfer forces and prepare the offensive. There is danger in placing too much reliance upon even the most authoritative, of what the United Nations wil .Jc .and when thev will do it. The enemy also has a purpose. It has never seemed[credible that the Japanese, fully informed of the strategy of thl United Nations and repeatedly reminded that after one year or two or three they must expect an "all-out" attack, will choose to "dig themselves in" and wait for it. It seems much more probable that they will use the ttoe given them to improve the strong position they hold sothit their enemies' "road to Tokyo" will be made fonler and the journey more difficult and costly. Possibly although thel have the wll to do so, they lack the means. Although opinions about their shippng position vary, and that position cannot be determined merely by deducting estimates of tonnage sunk from estimates oTtonna™ Xisting in December, 1941, there is no doubt that■ of ships is a source of weakness. The activities of United States submarines operating on Japanese supply lines are of importance because they tacrease the wlakness, and tend to create, uncertainty m Japanese mindf concerning their ability to undertake and mamtarn offensive action. But even on the assumption most favourable to the United Nations, namely that Japan, as well as they, will adopt the strategy of a "hold ng to" which is an assumption that maybe rudely disturbed it should be clear that the next year or two will be difficult for the United Nations in the Pacific. Perhaps without the stimulus of a sense of imminent danger, they must sustain and wherever possible increase their efforts to support their forces m the field. In the field there will be problems of morale among troops required to wait. On the home fronts, particularly in Australia and ,New Zealand but increasingly in the United States also, manpower shortage and its varied Sequences will be accentuated. This may be the prospect, though Xropeans have been markedly successful in anticipating- what the will and will not do. But the peoples in these countries if they^f faced with such a prospect, have every reason to count their blessings If they escape invasion of their homelands, and the bombing of the* homes, then they will be lucky as many other peoples have not been lucky, and knowledge of their good fortune should hearten mem to accept cheerfully all deprivations and discomforts that cannot be avoided by their own efforts competently directed.