FALLING OFF.

Auckland Star, Volume LXIX, Issue 128, 2 June 1938, Page 4

FALLING OFF.

BUSINESS STATISTICS.

OUTLOOK NOT ENCOURAGING. COMMKKCE CHAMBER REVIEW. In ;i statistical analysis of business conditions, the "Commerce Journal,' , issued by the Auckland Chamber of Commerce, states that lor the lirsl time for a long period it has become necessary to draw attention to a tendency of a number of statistical series to move in a direction away iioni prosperity. It must not bo overlooked, however, that, where series are subject to a marked seasonal iluctUHtion, figure* for a full year often show quite a different trend from those for the portions of a year when influences are operating of all opposite character to those which prevail on the average through tlie year. Thus migration figures even in prosperous years very often show a loss of population in the first quarter of the year, because this is the season when New Zealanders find it most convenient to journey abroad. The review states that the series for the prices of exported commodities is now showing a falling tendency, and in a few months the margin of export over import prices has been very sharply reduced. The volume of exports, which has been at a hi-h level, is also now .-howiii- a fall-I inn tendency; and the general effect of the unfortunate outbreak of facial eczema i anions the live-stock in cei tain districts must be to heighten this tendency. i Overseas Funds Reduced. '"The volume of imports which has beer risinjj sharply since the effects of the raising of the New Zealaml-Londoi: exchanges began to wear off about the end of 1933. is now showing a steadying tendency which has been reinforced by recent increases in the Customs tariff. "This reduced volume of imports comes none too soon, for the effect of all the influences already mentioned hae been to cause a reduction in the excess of exports over imports, ..in the excess of haul; deposits over bank advance*:, and in tlie amount of the net oversea funds of the banks on Xew Zealand account: which at the end of March. 1938. were valued at CX.Z.m. 'JfiMi. anainst iIN.Z.m. 3-1 la at the end of March. 1937. and £N.Z.m. 44 at the end of March. 1936. "These funds reached an abnormally level in 1035 under the influence of factors set into operation by the January, 1033. raisinjr of the New Zealand-London exchanges; but the rapid drop in the fisnrcß durinsc the past two years shows that this influence has now entirely worn off and that there are in operation factors which, if not cheeked, will sonn result in cither a further raising of exchange rates or a drastic reduction of bank credits. "The whole outlook is easilv the least, favourable we have had occasion to comment on for a number of yeare," concluded the review.