SURVEY OF PROVINCE.
SOME HARD FIGHTS;
(By Telegraph.—Special to "Star.")
WELLINGTON, this day.
Surveying the constituencies close to election date to analyse the chances of the many candidates, it becomes apparent that the campaign in this area has improved the Government's changes. A month ago there were signs of many possible changes. National government candidates were late off the' mark compared with their rivals and it almost looked as if the Government forces, slow to mobilise for really active work in the constituencies, would lose here and there by default. The scene has changed and there is likely to be less disturbance in the party sense than "was at first anticipated.
Wellington East is the scene of a hard fight in which Mr. Semple, the sitting Labour miember, finds lri s most formidable antagonist in Mr. Mazengarb (National Government). The four others do not count and Mr. Semple is likely to hold the seat.
Wellington Suburbs provides a straight-out contest between the Independent sitting member in Mr. Wright and a capable Labour opponent, Mr._P. Butler, who at first looked like defeating the veteran. But there is a feeling now that the position will not change. Wellington North. Wellington North has been a lively battle-ground giving the sitting Labour member, Mr. Chapman, much anxiety. He won last time in a three-cornered contest, a minority representative, and he is likely to be in the same position again, so thoroughly have the antiLabour ranks been split by the appeal of Mr. C. A. L. Treadwell (National Government) and the Independent Mrs. Knox Gilmer, a daughter of the late Mr. Seddon, who will come close to victory "after a lively campaign of hard canvassing and unconventional platform work. . = s Safe Seats. Wellington Central, a clear fight between Mr. Fraser (Labour) and Mr. W. J. Mason (National Government) "will again give Mr. Fraser a victory, for it is one of Labour's safe seats. Another "safe" seat- for ; Labour is Wellington South where Mr. McKeen, carrying on a three-cornered* battle .against Mr. JI. Goldsmith (Democrat) and Mr. H. F. Toogood (National Government) will win fairly easily. Still another "safe" Labour seat is Hutt, where Mr. Walter Nash, who has made a good member from the purely local viewpoint, apart from his good grasp of national will win against Mr. V. E. Jacobsen (Nationalist). ' Otaki electorate has been hopelessly confused with a multitude of candidates. Mr. Will. Appleton after* campaigning for months,, found himself without the National Government nomination which went to Mr. G. A. Monk, when the sitting member, Mr. W. H., Field, decided to retire. Mr. J. G. Lowrie (Labour) also started early and showed capability, and a Democrat, Mr. B_ W. Bothamley, with local body experience, finally came into the fight. The contest is between the Labour and National Government candidates, with the odds on Mr. Lowrie.
Manawatu also presents a (medley •with five candidates, but here the position seems to favour Mr. Linklater, the sitting Government member. Palmerston North. Palmerston North has the choice of the sitting Government member, Mr. J. A. Nash, a strong Labour candidate, Mr. J. Hodgens, and the Mayor, Mr. A. E. Mansford, who is an Independent. The last-named in his local activities, has made many friends among the Labour section, and is likely to take many votes from Mr. Hodgens, enabling Mr. Nash to head the poll with a reduced majority. Oroua has the typical three-cornered fight of National Government (Mr. J. G. Cobbe), Labour (Mr. W. H. Oliver) and Democrat.(Mr. E. Fair), and it will result in another win for the Minister of Defence, who last ■ time was unopposed. A Labour win is predicted in Rangitikei, where the party is represented by Mr. Oliver Wilson, a young man extremely well informed, and a competent campaigner. The sitting member, Mr. A. Stuart, only won with a margin of 15 in 1931.
Another change is predicted in Wanganui, where Mr. Veitch, the sitting Democrat, faces a strong. Labour opponent in Mr. J. B. F. Cotterill. Mr. N. R, Bain (National Government), *nd a former Wanganui representative, Mr. J. T. Hogan, standing as a Liberal, are also in the field. A compact Labour vote is expected to put Mr. Cotterill into Parliament.
\Tlie Taranaki seats aire not expected to change their representation: Labour supporters had good reason to feel optimistic over the campaign of Mr. P. Skoglund, the Labour nominee, against Mr. W. J. Poison in Egmont, for his committees included large numbers of small farmers. But the glamour of guaranteed prices seems td* have lost brilliance, and although - the anti-Labour vote may be slightly disturbed by Mr. C. R. Finnerty (Democrat), Mr. Poison should get home. "A Sure Tiling." Egmont is again a sure thing for Mr. C. A. Wilkinson (Independent) in a straight contest against Mr. J. Ross (Labour), and similarly, Mr. Dickie, the Government member contesting Patea will retain the seat, though Dr. G. j! Adams is a capable Democrat opponent, and likely to poll well. Mr. S.. G. Smith's vigorous criticism of Labours policy has drawn heavy fire against him in the New Plymouth campaign, where liis opponents in order of importance are the Kev. F. L. Frost (Labour), W. A. Sheat (Independent Reform) H. Cave (Democrat), and Miss E. Andrew (Independent). The previous fight produced a majority of 3472 against Mr. Sheat, and despite the crowd of candidates the issue is really between Government and Labour, and the Minister will win. A straight contest in Giiborne between' the sitting Labour member, Mr. D. W. Coleman, and the former, member, Mr. W. D. Lysnar, may result- in a' change, a-s Mr. Lysnar has consolidated the iinti-Labour vote by an undertaking not to vote Labour into power, although' he is an Independent. .......
Opinion about the Napier seat inclines to give a fighting chance to Mr. F. B. Logan for a ' Government win, as the contest is clearly one between him and the sitting Labour' member, Mr. W. E. Barnard, who is said to have alienated a section of his own supporters of the extreme variety. The other candidates 1 are Messrs. N. R. Jacobsen (Democrat) and W. Woods (Communist), Hawke's Bay. i Hawke's Bay is a certainty for the sitting Government 'member; Sir. H. M. Campbell. It was thought in the early stages that Waipawa might. produce a Labour win by the defeat of Mr. A. E. Jull, the retiring Government member, but the electors are taking sides, Govern-1 ment or Labour, and will avoid too much ■ vote-splitting, so that Mr. Jull should get back on a reduced majority. Pahiatua, with the familiar three-cornered fight, is a safe seat for Sir Alfred Ransom. • I
The Masterton triangle is not so easy to resolve, as Mr. T. C. A. Hislop, the Democrat leader, has put in much organising work, and- the Labour candidate, Mr. J. Robertson has a solid .block of votes. The contest will be close between Mr. Hislop and the sitting Government member, Mr. G. R. Sykes, who may pull it off through the quiet operation of a prejudice on the part of , many voters to being represented by an' outsider. j
Wairarapa presents a puzzle, because' the field has been ,made more., open .by the retirement of Mr. A. D.! McLeod, who is supporting JMr. J. W.. Card.-tfor the National Government. Colonel; T.' W. McDonald is the 'Democrat candidate, who has previously, represented the district, while Mr. B.,Roberts is campaigning for Labour, and Mr. H. C. Thomseri is an Independent. The issue is between National Government and Labour. i
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WELLINGTON., Auckland Star, Volume LXVI, Issue 280, 26 November 1935
WELLINGTON. Auckland Star, Volume LXVI, Issue 280, 26 November 1935
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