WELLINGTON TOPICS.

Auckland Star, Volume LIX, Issue 109, 10 May 1928, Page 16

WELLINGTON TOPICS.

SHADOW OF ELECTION. PARTIES PREPARING. MYSTERY OF THE THIRD. (From Our Special Correspondent.) WELLINGTON, May 8. The shadow of the general election already is crossing the path of the politicians. Members of the Cabinet have been particularly busy during the last month or two hearing calls from all parts of the country and responding to them with quite unusual alacrity. Their activity and the Prime Minister's reticence concerning the probable date of the meeting of Parliament favour the predictions of an early session and a short one. Other indications of something of the kind being in the air are provided by the atmosphere about Parliament House and the assiduity of the Reform organisers. Three years ago, it will be remembered, the election was hastened by nearly a month, the Dunedin Exhibition and the Manawatu and Canterbury shows being the good reasons on that occasion. No doubt equally good reasons for a similar arrangement could be found on the present occasion and With its own plans well laid the Government probably would be best 'served by a" strenuous contest and a brief one. That roughly is the popular view of the situation. The Pasties. Though the Reformers profess to be quite confident of success at the polls, whenever the contest may come, they do not pretend to have at their command such a united body of electors as they had three years ago. They admit that they have lost from their ranks a certain number of malcontents—some to Labour and some to the United party— who always are hankering for change, and that the Coates mana has lost some of its vitality, as was inevitable with the passage of the years. But allowing for these defections, which, they say, could not reverse the voting in more than half a dozen constituencies, they still would have a very comfortable majority of sixteen or eighteen. It must be borne in mind, however, that they have lost what seemed to be two secure seats since the last general election and at the moment appear likely to have some difficulty in recovering them. Then they have by no means a firm grip upon the two Canterbury seats they won at the last election and little prospect of improving their position in either Auckland or Dunedin. Labour Prospects. The Labour party, which is not addicted to sheer "bluff," is counting upon winning twenty-three or twenty-four seats whenever the election comes about. Many observant people, unattached to the party, think its expectation not extravagant. Mr. Holland and his followers since they become His Majesty's Opposition in Parliament and seized by a sense of responsibility, have jettisoned many of their extravagant notions in regard to . land settlement and community control, and now are making way with numbers of people who never before looked updn them with favour. Just how far this modification of public opinion will carry the party remains to be seen; but it is certain that with two dozen representatives in the House it would keep the Government very alert indeed. Meanwhile Ministers are hurling most of their denunciation at Labour and treating the United party for the most part .with frank disdain. Mr. Holland and his colleagues have remained remarkably , quite during the last month or two, but it may be taken for granted that they. are not overlooking the possibility of an early appeal to the constituencies. The Third Party. The United party still remains somewhat of a mystery, having, so far as the public knows, neither a policy nor a leader; but it seems to have made some progress towards cohesion. The fact that Mr. Sidey and Mr. Veitch, prominent figures in the old Liberal party, have come into the union, will draw many wanderers in the wilderness towards the same refuge. The Reformers nrake light of the intrusion of the third party, maintaining that the real fight lies between Labour and but if the unionists should manage to secure a dozen seats—and they profess to be sure of a large number—Mr. Coates and his colleagues will find themselves in an even more precarious position than Mr. Massey was" after the general election of 1922. It seems almost impossible that the party in power can lose its huge majority within three years, but such things have happened, and even _ impartial authorities, who favour neither Labour nor Unity, predict that the huge majority at least will be halved.