£30,000,000 LOSS.

Sun (Christchurch), Volume VII, Issue 1956, 22 May 1920, Page 11

£30,000,000 LOSS.

IF NO RAIN THIS MONTH. LAMBING PROSPECTS IN KS.% » GRAZIERS UP AGAINST IT. Graziers fear that the lambing in New South Walea thia year will bo a failure. Unless steady, soaking, drought-breaking rains fall this month, it seems inevitable. Such a failure would mean a loss to the State of £30,000,000 in the estimate of close observers, says the Sydney "Sun." In 1918 the total lambing was about nine and a-quarter millions. Tor 1919 the total lambing officially forecasted by the Government Statistician early in the year was about seven and three-quarter millions. But the drought kept on with everincreasing severity, and the Stock Branch reported afterwards that the till!) lambing "in the .greater part of the State has been a failure." "Another and even a worse failure now faces the State," said a member of the executive of the Graziers' Association. "In 1919 about 11,000,000 ewes, it was officially estimated, were mated for the autumn and winter lambing. Practically the whole of the State outside the eastern division goes in for autumn and winter lambing, and it is precisely this part of the State that is now, and has been for the last twelve months, most sorely pressed by the drought. "Because of the drought, the ewes over large areas, west, north-west, and south, have not been mated at all. And in some parts where the ewes were mated, and the lambing l is going on now, the danger is that both ewes and lambs will die. The Critical Month.

"If good rains fall this month, followed by bright weather, there may still be a half or a third lambing this year for the State—it will be very late at best, of course. But if the rain fails, then we can look for only another lambing failure. "A failure this year would be the more serious because of last year's failure. It would mean that our natural increase over two years had failed. And the effects of this would be felt for years to come. A big drought is like the War in that it is the: aftermath you have to reckon with. And the aftermath of this Old Man Drought looks like being very serious indeed for everybody. We can onlv hope that the rain will yet come in time to give us a bigger lambing this year than looks likely at present." A grazier in close touch with the industry throughout the State expressed the opinion that the industry did not look like marking two million lambs this vear. It depended on this month's weather, largely, he said, but if May rains failed, then the State could hardly expect a quarter of a normal lamb crop. What loss would this mean to the State? "Directly and indirectly," he said, "you can say that each lamb represents a value of £5 at least. If you are six million lambs short, that works out at £30,000,000. There is the wool clip for several years, there is the natural increase—half the lambs would be ewe lambs, and you could expect several crops of lambs in turn from them—and there would be the meat and the by-products. "As Serious as it Can Be." "I-can tell you," he went on, "that the pastoral outlook is about as serious as it can be. We are faced with practically a total lamb failure —the lambing on the Eastern Division is comparatively a small matter—and stock are dying, we cannot get agistment country, the agistment country we had is giving out, and no man can say when the drought will end. On December 31 last there were onlv 32,000.000 sheep in the State, as against 39,000,000 the year before, and if this drought goes on through the fast-approaching winter our flocks may be down to 25,000,000 before the end of the year, which was about the level they touched in the 1002 drought—the ( most disastrous drought in living memory. "Millions of sheep that have been on agistment for the last six months have reached the end of their tether. From the Monaro mountains, for example, there are between one and two million sheep coming out now, and for many of them there is nowhere to go. If they stay in the mountains they will perish with the cold; and the paddocks at home in many cases are as bare as the boards. I hear of one big owner paying £IG for fodder to feed his ewes. This would w-ork out, roughly, at 1/- per week—26/- for six months—and this on top of the 20/- to 25/- he has already paid per head to keep them alive through the last six to 12 months. Only a big owner could manage to do it but even for him there is a limit. "In this Slate to-day there are millions of sheep that have cost anything from 15/- to 25/- per head to keep alive. And the owners are not out of the woods yet. This is the worst of it. If they could onlv see daylight now it wouldn't be so bad; but they can't. The expense is

mounting up, and the rain keeps off, and the stock keep dying. Huge Agistment Rates. "To-day I heard that 100,000 sheep on agistment in recently favouured parts of the Moree district have to move on again now, as the agistment has given out. In the county of Cumberland, about Sydney, there are large numbers of stock on agistment, and nios! of them should be moved" before the winter. But where? That is the problem. "Agistment country is practically unprocurable. What little is available is selling at fancy prices, and has been selling so for the last six months. A monthly rate of £SO to £7O per 1000 sheep has been common. Some owners have paid £2 to £3 per acre for six months grass—a price that in ordinary times the pro-perty-owner probably would have taken for the sale of the place. Most of the little agistment country now available is unsuitable for winter relief, and the stock that need the relief would not do at all on it. Agistment country was never, to my knowledge, more needed, and never so scarce.

"On top of the agistment scarcity, there is the famine in fodder. It takes a man of means to-day to buy any fodder at all. If you are any distance from the railway, it is out of the question altogether. And generally most of the stock owners who are drought-stricken have to leave the fodder alone. "Stock are being rushed into Homebush and sacrificed there, in spite of the fact that at the beginning of this year the country was at least 10,000.000 sheep and 500,000 cattle short. Owners feel it is a case of slaughter the stock at the abattoirs, or the drought will end them. £7 Instead of £2O. "A line of well-bred young store bullocks at Homebush on Thursday was sold at £7, whereas if the drought broke they would be worth £2O. The dire necessity of the man who sent them in is plain.' Large numbers of poor cattle are coming into market, and are not fetching more than 2d per lb. Owners simply cannot hold them, ad they must sell at any price. "Everything depends on the rain. Given the rain and the right seasons, the industry will.win back to normal in a few years' time. Ber cause wool prices are high, and are likely to remain high, and the world will -want our meat. As essentially a primary-producing country, we will have the things to sell that the world wants and must have. But it is exceedingly unfortunate that just at the time when we have most need of our products, and the world wants them most, this drought should grip us by the throat, and semi-paralyse our efforts. While avoiding pessimism—the man out there is fighting cheerfully —it is well that we all should recognise the ravages of the drought. And the lesson x more particularly should be taken to heart by the politicians who can do much to hinder or help the recovery of our greatest industries. We will need good legislation, as well as good seasons, during the next few years, if the primary industries are to get the chance thev deserve."