THE WAR GAME.

Sun (Christchurch), Volume I, Issue 173, 27 August 1914, Page 4

THE WAR GAME.

THE CENSOR'S CRAZY QUILT. DO THE ALLIES ATTACK OR FALL BACK? Specially written for THE SUN. The cabled advice from the Belgian theatre of war is as scrappy, incoherent, ai;d confusing as ever. On Saturday the Allies had taken the offensive —the opposing battle points were at grips. What has happened since? Are the Germans steadily pushing the Allies (supposing the latter's attack to have failed) back on the frontier? Were the Britishers punished heavily in protecting the falling back of the impetuous Frenchmen? Since Saturday, the picture of war has been of a crazy quilt I pattern. It appears, reading between the line*, that having accounted for Liege, ani the passage of the Meuse, the Germans withdrew some 250,000 men fr«m Luxemburg, and pushed them into Belgium in quick Hence the 'tremendous attack the Allies have to withstand. Maybe the Allies are at the present time fighting a determined rearguard action, and falling back on the frontier. If the gallant Britishers are advancing eastwards from Mons, and the three Fiench armies are converging towards Namur, two directly, the third towards the S.E. of the M«use fortress, where is the German force—allegedly a full quarter of a million —that was flung into Luxemburg against Longwy? Perhaps the censor —should he know, poor man—will tell us- one of these days. Is it true, as we were advised about a fortnight since, that the Germans had evacuated the duchy? The suggestive details which, came to hand late yesterday afternoon, if analysed, assist, but little to a definite conclusion.

That the Germans hav« bee* badly stung' in front of Mons—Namur is near the centre of a maelstrom «f slaughter —is clear from the undempßstrative Kitchener's message of congratulation to the '' Tommies, ■' -* who, as was predicted in these columns on Hiore than cne occasion, had assigned to them the honour of barring the door into France —at Mons. We can easily imagine the tide of invasion breaking and washing about Mens since the suggestive inforrnatioH afforded by Lord Kitchener, and the "statement that wounded are pouring into Maubeiige and Valenciennes.

The latter tovrn is on practically the same latitude as Mons, and lies on the Franco-Belgian frontier, roughly halfway between Lille and Maubeuge. Reference to the map will place it immediately. Between Mons and Namur are Jumet and Charieroi, neighbouring towns. Here there is a welter of battle. Hal is a stone throw west of Waterloo. DIRECTION OF THE ADVANCE.

Two days ago we were told that the big general engagement along a protracted front had been begun, and that the Allies were assuming the offensive. Have tliey been forced back? Their main defence was packed in a triangle which had for its base a line from Mons to, say, Sedan, with the apex at Namur. Such a figure includes the Sambre and the Lower Meuse. Now for the communique of the' French War Office as published yesterday. The Britishers are advancing from Mons eastward — some, at least, of the Namur forts are still intact. The First French Army is driving through the gap of Stenay towards Neufchatean (in Luxemburg). A line traced on THE SUN..map from Stenay N.W. of Arlon, will give the 'direction of that movement. The Second French Army is attacking from Sedan, advancing up the right bank of the Lower Meuse —Givet to Uinant, and towards Namur. The Third Army has passed Chimay —Chimay - is, roughly speaking, on the frontier, behind Eoeroy. _ > . PROBABLE DISPOSITION OF FORCES. Nov.'/ imagine the concentrated

strength of the German right wing, extending from, say, Brussels (the extreme right) aeross the Meuse, with Namur as its pivoting point. The extreme left of the allied -left-wing, probably Belgians and French,- are apparently—these "reservations are inevitable*, thanks to a fatuous censorship—holding the extreme right of the German, right wing, which is rolling directly westwards towards Lille—part of the '' general idea'' of the German War Office; the good old enveloping movement. The British troops and the Second and Third French Armies are, if the censor means what he says, working in a straight line towards the German centre —Namur, to wit—or are just holding the opposing centre. The First French Army will engage the flank of the invading right wing—that is, above Arlon. The disposition of the Allies and the lines of attack suggest strongly a daring attempt; with the aid of the Namur forts, to engage the German centre, and generally roll the German right back cross the Meuse. Substantial reverse to the right wing .of the invasion will confuse the German plans hopelessly. THE DESPERATE ATTEMPT.

The hope of the Hohenzollerh is in this right wing. The German centre is helpless until the right shows signs of breaking into France between Valenciennes and, say, Chimay. That, the attempt has been made, and a desperate attempt at that, is evident even from the fragmentary details that the obliging censor let pass. Down the Meuse and the Sambre, almost in a straight line westward, is the short route to Paris. But—the Allies are clustering across the track; the north-east advance of the French armies endangers the flank of the Gerinan right wing. Any falling back of the enemy along the Lower Meuse will probably be followed by a smashing attack on the centre. Heaven alone knows the bloody story of the devastating shock that has occurred abou| and behind Narnur. The convergence of the -allied left wing must be met by the enemy and turned. If the.Allies only "hold" the enemy, restricting the progress of their extended front, the German "general idea'' will be badly shocked, remembering that an a valance of Russi&ns is rolling steadily westward towards Vistula. If the allied forces, by sheer weight of men, are pushed back to the French frontier, they can be trusted to play the rearguard action for all it is worth —and it will be wortk a great deal to the Russians in Eastern Prussia. The plain facts are that Germany has yet to .lay a hand on the doorhandle of France, while * the Grand Duke Nicholas is already fumbling at the latch of the eastern door of Germany. Should he force an entrance, Germany is lost. And, so far as the FrancoBelgian frontier is concerned, only a series of egregious blunders on the part of the Allies could allow the Germans to cross the line opposite the chief French concentration area between Laon ami Rheims. Doubtless somewhere near the centre of the German right wing is the famous Tenth, the Hanover Army Corps, which has played such a prominent part in the siege of Liege. This corps, which is under General von Emmich, has a splendid record. Under the name of the King's German Legion, the Tenth did nobly at Waterloo, while it distinguished itself in the war of 1870-71, when led by General Goeben —presumably the notorious Dreadnought is named after that officer. The famous Brandenburgers, which, under von Alvensleben, held against great odds Marshal Bazaine in Metz, until the main German forces arrived and shut the French up securely, were sent to Verviers, and should not be far away from the Hanoverians. NANCY HARDLY SIGNIFICANT. According to a message received yesterday, the possibility of the abandonment of Nancy by the French was suggested. Nancy itself has no strategic value. Some days ago it was recorded that a Gferman attack on Nancy had been repulsed. On paper, the enemy have slight hope of piercing the heavily fortessedv line and rugged ridges which extend between Toul (which is immediately to the west of Nancy) and Belfort, which lies in a corner where the French, Swiss, and German frontiers meet. Toul, one of the permanent French fortresses, tfesides being thoroughly fortified, holds an entrenched camp. From Toul to Verdun (which is opposite Metz) the line is sprinkled with enormously powerful forts from which batteries of heavy sweep the frontier for between 60 aud 70 miles. The interval between Verdun and

* Charleville is comparatively unproteete<L Southward from Toul is Epinai, and between Epinai and Belfort is another chain of powerful .forts,,at the back of which, between Dijon and Besancon, the southern French concentration area. Pont-a-musson, a place mentioned o« more than one occasion in the cablegrams, is situated on the frontier immediately in front of the V»rdun group of forts. Under the circumstances, the abandoning of Nancy is a small matter and quite insignificant from a strategic point of view. The French can well afford to let the enemy approach the fortresses.

The repeated allegations of the brutalities of the Germans are disturbing—apparently the tactics of IS7O-71 are being repeated. War is a brutalis* ing thing at any time, but at this juncture the Germans are showing a savage vindictiveness worthy of the best Be<| Indian traditions. C.A.M.