DRAB PROSPECTS.

Sun (Christchurch), Volume I, Issue 162, 14 August 1914, Page 2

DRAB PROSPECTS.

CANTERBURY'S RUGBY TEAM. WHAT ARE ITS CHANCES OF VICTORY? Until the last few days, there has not been sufficient data on which one could base estimates of the chances which the Canterbury representative team has of beating its more formidable opponents in the North Island. It was hoped that the match with South Canterbury last Saturday would yield some material of this kind, but —as was pointed out in these columns last Monday—the prevailing uncertainty as to whether all the members of the Canterbury team were really trying to show their best form discounted considerably the value of that match as data for comparisons. Then there was the possibility —it has now become a reality—that the personnel of the team would be altered to some extent, through men being unable to go. Further, very little information regarding the present strength of Auckland, and —to a less extent —of Tarauaki was available.

HAZAEDING A FORECAST. Now that the team has got away, and a little more information about the northern teams is obtainable, a forecast of Canterbury's chances may be hazarded. Football, forecasts are often ticklish things to venture—the glorious uncertainty of the game makes them apt to recoil upon the maker. Especially is this the case with representative football at a time in which the Dominion's best players—or, if you prefer it, the reputably best —are abroad. One has to rely to. a great extent upon knowledge of past form, nibdinetl or extended by other people's opinions of the.present form of players in those provinces which the maker of the; forecast is unable to visit in the current season. These factors are not referred to in any spirit of trepidation in making a forecast, but to assist the reader to comprehend the material on which the forecast is based. Let me now say that a long and varied experience of North Island Eugby and a careful observation of Cliristehurch football during the* present season leaves me no other conclusion than that Canterbury's representatives have small chance of defeating either Auckland, Taranaki, or Wellington in the coming, engagements. Against Wtmganui and Wairarapa, Canterbury should be victorious.

:/ I AUCKLAND'S TEAM. ■ The first match of tin.tour will be played at Auckland to-morrow afternoon. "On paper," Auckland is weaker than Taranaki and Wellington.. It is without its three best backs—J.* O'Brien, Weston, and J. R. McKenzie —and its three best forwards Bruce, and Barrett—who are ' in. Australia with., the Dominion te'anji. The absence o*"-si'X'sr.;-h sterling players must aft'ect!,,the . Aucklandcrs. Yet; the Northerners .-.will have a good team, strong both forward ? and back, in the field to-morrow. There is, a nice admixture- of experience and dashing youth dn the pack. The front row men selected are ,G. Sellars the well-known New Zealand representative, and Casey, a former Hawke's Bay representative. Both men are excellent "hookers" and fine all-round French, another of the chosen, is the tall forward who played so well, as a member of the ;Maori touring team last season. Avery (is a young player Avho has done exceedingly well in club football as a member of the Pousonby team, and who should have been selected as one of the Auckland representative first fifteen last season. Biikcy, of the University Club—which has won the Auckland senior championship this year —and Griffin, a Thames player, are fine, fast, dashing forwards. Campbell, of the City Club, and "lock" man, is a strong young player of much promise. The emergency forwards, Inkster, Hansch, and Muir, are all good men. The wingforward is O. Stewart, who is a "new" man- as a representative, but is stated to be a very promising player. FINE THREE-QUARTERS.

The Auckland backs are a veiv good lot. At half-back there is Ross, a young, light but clever player belonging to the University Club. Ross attained senior rank late in last season, and this is his first year as a representative player, but already he is considered by good judges to be one of the best half-backs in the Dominion.' It is in the five-eights line that the Auckland backs might show their only weakness, especially as Weston and McKen/.ie, the "first string" five-eighths,, are in Australia. Gcddes is a player of moods—sometimes brilliant and sometimes very poor. He is a very sound man in defence, but he is inclined to be too selfish in attack. The other fiveeighths is McDonald, of whose ability I am not.sure, as he has not played in senior football in Auckland before the present season. When we come to the three-quarters we find a A'cry strong line. A. McGregor is the tricky winger who was a member of the New Zealand team which visited California last season. The centre is J. 1). Stewart, a former Auckland, North Island, and New Zealand representative. When this year's Dominion team was chosen Stewart was not playing at his best, but he is reported to have "struck form" lately. When at his best he is an excellent player. His defence is always sound. The other wing three-quarter is J. V. Macky (University), a fine scoriug man who had a remarkable season in 1.912. In that season he played in six representative matches and scored i:j tries. In three matches he was the only man who scored tries for Auckland, and one of those three matches was against Wellington, Macky scoring four tries in that game, which was 'Won by Auckland by 12 points to nil. Last season and this Macky has not been playing regularly in club football, but I am assured that he is in great form at present. The full-back of the team is Mofiitt, a cool and steady player noted for long and accurate line-kicking. W. Cunningham, the famous "All Black" forward, is coaching the Aucklanders. CANTERBURY "VERY FAIR." Against this strong team Canterbury can put a fifteen that can be classified only aa very fair. The forwards. 1 ai a

division, arc fairly solid, but, have not much cleverness, and they lack speed. They are not accustomed to such hard Rugby as prevails in the North Island, and —on their form in club matches — they have less dash than the northerners possess. To a certain extent these faults may be counterbalanced by combination, 'but it is doubtful whether they will have had enough time in which to work up that desirable attribute. A great deal will depend on their ability to "hook" the ball in the scrums," and in Sellars and Casey the Canterbury front-rankers will find strong opponents. If the Auckland men get the ball, and Geddes and McDonald do not spoil the northern attack, Canterbury will hit a barrow-ful of trouble. The Auckland backs have a higher average of skill and dash than the Canterbury rearguard possesses. Canterbury 's centre backs are good defenders, but" they will have their work "cut out" for them. At the time these notes are written, the arrangements of the Canterbury backs for to-morrow's match is not know in Christehurch. Either Amodeo or L. W. Mehrteus will be the half-back. The five-eighths will probably be Crawshaw and Gray, and the three-quarters McLeod, Watson, and Boag, with Cade at full-back. If Mehrteus is played at half, Amodeo might possibly be the full-back, and Cade might replace Boag in the threequarter line. But, whatever the arrangement of the Canterbury rearguard, its attacking power probably will be inferior to that" of the Auckland backs. TARANAKI'S FIFTEEN.

Taranaki will be a different proposition. The Taranaki backs of this season are not as good as those of the past, and they are weakened by the absence of "Dick" Roberts and G. Loveridge, who will return from Australia a day too late for them to play against Canterbury. But the amber-and-blaeks are not without good men in the rearguard. L.B. ("Jack") Stohr, whose first appearance as a Taranaki representative was as a full-back, is again in that position and showing good form. His powerful kicking is likely to trouble Taranaki's opponents. The threequarters are men who, until this season, were unknown in representative football. They lack experience and alsojudging from recent newspaper criticisms of their play—the dash which is expected of Taranaki players. Latterly Taranaki has been playing two wingforwards, owing to the shortage of "classy" backs and the surplusage of o-ood forwards. If it is decided that two five-eighths shall })e played against Canterbury, the choice probably will fall upon*S. Cameron—a young player who should not be confused with "Don" Cameron —and Column. S. Cameron is an excellent club fiveeighths, but as a representative player he has scarcely realised the promise he showed about' two years ago. J. Colman, one of the finest all-round players the. Dominion has seen for many years five-eighths, half-back, and wing-forward —is said to have reproduced his old form. Indeed, some members of the Wellington team which was defeated by Taranaki a couple of mouths ago asserted that if Colman had onlv come under the eyes of the Dominion selectors he must have been sent to Australia with the New Zealand team. And at half-back there is C. Brown, one of the best "halves" in the Dominion.

GBEAT FORWARDS. It is in the forwards that Taranaki's greatest strength lies. Not quite all of the brilliant forwards who played a very important part in Taranaki's victory against Auckland in the Ranfurly Shield match of last year are available, owing to the way in which the lack of a general weekly half-holiday has spoilt the cup matches in North Taranaki, But most or them are still playing, and there are some excellent reinforcements —men who have been just on the fringe of representative honours in the past couple of seasons. R. Taylor, North Island representative, is a fine wing-for-ward, clever and dashing. H. Dewar, New Zealand representative and splendid forward, is said to be still in great form. As a Taranaki player, H. Whit* tington is the veteran of the pack, but he is always in really good "trim," and he is always on the ball. Kissick arid Young have been members of Taranaki teams for two or three seasons. Both are tall, dashing, hard-working forwards. The other three men who probably will complete the pack are Birchall, Ryan, and Patterson—good forwards all. While Cain is away, the front-rankers probably will be Whittington and Patterson, but just how well they work together in "hooking" this deponent knoweth not, as Patterson is one of the "new" men. This outline of the personnel of the Taranaki; pack is subject to revision, as the Taranaki forwards have been changed about in recent matches, probably to "try out" some of those who have been bidding for places in the team. But it may be taken for granted that Taranaki will have some rattling good forwards iii the match with Canterbury next week. THE WELLINGTON MEN.

Wellington may also be relied upon to place a strong team in the field against Canterbury—a team of strong forwards and fleet-footed and clever backs. At present, the personnel of the Wellington team cannot be discussed with any assurance, owing to the fact that the New Zealand Expeditionary is drawing heavily on Rugby Clubs in the capital city. So of Wellington more anon. But against Canterbury, Wellington will have the services of E. Roberts, J. Ryaii, "Ranji" Wilson, and Francis, who will return from Australia next week. Sufficient has been written to show that Canterbury's prospects of beating the three "big" unions in the North Island bear a leaden hue. A. L. C.