SENSATIONAL REVELATION,

Otago Witness, Volume 11, Issue 2280, 11 November 1897, Page 28

SENSATIONAL REVELATION,

NARROW ESCAPE OF WAR.

(Feom Our Oto Correspondent.)

London, October 2,

Possibly some of my readers may renaomb«r— more probably they may have forgotten— thafe just about four years ago I uttered and reiterated a very earnest warning to New Zealand to "keep her powder dry" and to ,ba "ready, aye ready" for warlike contingencies'. I stated on very high authority that there was ihe gravest reason to apprehend a war in which England wo aid be involved, that in fact this couutry was on the very verge of ' a precipice and that the slightest false step meant a great; war.. It is likely enough that many read this with careless indifference as », mere piece 'oE newspaper sensationalism. Well, I could not: blame them. We have far too much of thai; sort of thing in fchis country. But in this cats there was nothing but a plain stxtoooenfc 'ot facts as far as I was at liberty to go. Aud now the whole thing has come out with a pop ! Also, of course, a vivid embroidery of sensational adornment is added.

Plainly the fact is that in August, 1893, nob only had relations become serionsly strained between England and .France in connection with the Siam question.'but matters had virtually drifted to a deadlock. -■ A point had been reached at which both nations stood close face-to-face, aud a collision seemed inevitable. So far the position was generally understood by those who kept thonuetves well informed as to the " inwardness " of current history, ac was also the oatcctna that by a tardy concession on the part of France the threatened tempevfc blew over. But what was not known then, save t«*a very few outride fche inner oirclti, but hat just; been disclosed, is the startling fact th*t ab a pv ticular Bt*ge when all hope of concession on the part of France seemed gone the Bnglisk Government ac'ually gave orders for fche necreb mobilisation of the British fleet, and caused ft complete plan of naval campaign to be pr«paied in all its detiilo. It- was definitely decided th*t war must be declared againtfc France unless sho would consent to make some c.DC. ssion in regard to tbe Bi»m difficulty. The concession was made at tbe last moment, but war was escaped only by the narrowest of shave*, at in the caaeof the Venezuelan difficulty with America. In each case the*, peril was to exceedingly imminent that one gasps and holds one's breath now to think bow nearly we were over the awful precipice. But how was the terrible crisis averted ? • A French writer> dec'ares that th« Germs n Kair.er peremptorily forbi.de England to go to war with France ove'e this Siamese matter. , A picturesque accvu&fc is given of how the Kuiser was at lunch on board his ycebt in the Solent when thedecUion of the Government was intimated to him coafidentially, and how he instantly jumped jp, threw his nervieite on the table— into such minute details does the st*>ry enter! — and rushed off to O^borne to sco his grandmother, Ihe Queer), whom he ordered to_"sfcop£fc" afc oucw, which she did ' A probable story, truly I The French writer goes on to Buy, with amazing, candour, that had England then gone to war with France the latter mush have been crushed, and that very speedily, by England's enormous naval superiority, and <jh«.t then England would have domiDah'd the whole world— Germany* colonial possessions included. This was not an agreeable prospect to ihe high-and-roighty William ; hence his prohibitory mandate !

What thit plcssint Gallican romance really means, I believe, i* that the Kaiser was informed, but by the Queen, of fche state of affairs, with the express view rf his giviog * friendly hint to the French Government that matters were more serious than' they seemed to imagine. Tbe friendly hint was probably given by one of those ingenious and non-committing methods familiar to diplomatists, and France being utterly unprepared for a great naval w»r and having hitherto relied purely upon bounce under the conviction th»t Eogland would not be induof d to go to war over Si&ro, recognised the prudence of • what the American Northerners in their Civil War used to call'" a judicious strategic movement to the rear." Afc ell tvrntu, they made. the concession which w»£ demanded, «nd so the peril passed by.

These narrow escapes, .however, are the lessons of wise men. Had the war, so gravely imminent, really broken out New Zealand might any day have received a visit from hontila cruuers, and then the value of her defensive preparations would have undergone a "surprise " test. There would have been no time for supplementary preparation — there never will be when, or if, war should really occur, which, God 'forbid ' As the colony stands in its ordinary condition of preparedness or tho reverse, bo it will have to be when the test comes. That is why defensive preparation* must never be relaxed in New Zealand,

Even at the present time the international atmosphere is distinctly unsettled, if not storm r. France, Russia, and Germany all are well disposed to " worry England in Egypt " as one document ingenuously pat the proposed policy. The calmly unperturbed determination with which England goes on strengthening her position in Africa, north and south, is timplr maddening to Continental statesmen. Lord Salisbury's only answer te the grumbles about England's prolonged occupation of Egypt is to occupy fresh territory. It was Berber J*sb week, next it is to be Kjissala which will be ceded by Italy, and soon Khartoum. Ho«r long the patience of the three disapproving Powers may hold oat, or in what direction they may suddenly spring a formidable surprise at ft diversion, it is impossible to foresee, but it i« welt known that Ministers are having a very anxious time. The disturbing elements are legion, and any day some little-foreseen contingency may precipitate a crisis. AnS rely upon this as ft known fact and no mere conjecture or spfcnlation, that so surely as Eogland goes to war with any naval Power. one of the first hostile moves will be a vigorous attempt to seize New Z-aland as the key of the Pacific. France, Russja. and Germany all have their plans in complete readiness for this coup whenever the opportunity shall offer, and in such case the attempt will ba made with relentless determination. Therefore be warned — and armed. It is an absolutely necessary national insurance.

A stabbing affray occurred the other night on board the ship Yallaroi at Sydney, and a sea* man received a severe wound near the hearts