OUTLOOK IN OTAGO.

DUNEDIN NORTH FIGHT.

LABOUR DEFEAT PREDICTED.

MR. TAVERNER IN DANGER.

[BY' TELEGRAPH. —OWN CORRESPONDENT.] DUNEDIN, Sunday.

There has been little change in the political situation in Otago during the past week with the exception of the withdrawal of Mr. R. S. Black, United/ from the Dunedin North contest.

The chief interest locally is centred in that electorate, where the retirement of Mr. Black has left a straight-out. issue between Mr. J. McCrae, Coalition, and Mr. J. W. Munro, the retiring Labour member. Mr. McCrae has encountered a good deal of opposition at his meetings, but, nevertheless, he has gained ground &teadily throughout the campaign, and in view of the present feeling throughout the country he has a good prospect of winning the seat. At the last, election Mr. Munro was returned in a triangular contest on a minority vote of over 2000, and, since the poll promises to be a fairly heavy one on the present occasion, Mr. McCrae %vould appear to be assured o£ sufficient o£ the previously divided anti-Socialist vote to secure his i*eturn by a small margin. Mr. W. B. Taverner, Coalition, is having a stiff fight to retain the suffrages of the electors of Dunedin South. His task is rendered all the harder by reason of the intervention of Mr. D. C. Cameron, Independent Reform candidate, who will claim a considerable number of non-Labour votes. The indications are that Mr. F. Jones, the Labour candidate, who has shown 'himself to be an excellent platform man and has given expression to no very extreme views, will win this seat from the former Minister of Public Works. Mr. Stewart Apparently Safe. The Minister of Finance, the Hon. \V. Downie Stewart, appears to be firmly entrenched in Dunedin West. He is opposed by Mr, J. Gilchrist, Labour, and Mr. J. McDonald, Liberal. Neither is a strong candidate, and even the persistence of Mr. McDonald in the contest is unlikely to endanger Mr. Stewart's hold on the seat against the purely party vote that will be secured by Mr. Gilchrist.

The Speaker, Sir Charles Statham, is not, being seriously challenged by his Labour opponent, Mr. P. Neilson. Indeed, the only possibility of his defeat resides in the apathy of his supporters, based on undue confidence as to the result.

In Chalmers Mr. A. E. Ansell, the retiring Coalition member, is experiencing his only serious opposition from the Labour candidate, Mr. N. H. Campbell, who will poll heavily in certain parts of the electorate. Mr. T. Scollay, Independent, appears certain to be at the bottom of the poll. The indications are that Mr. Ansell should have a fairly comfortable win.

A very even contest is being waged for the Clutha seat. Mr. F. Waite, the retiring Coalition member, is opposed by Mr. P. McSkimming, United, a wellknown business man. As both candidates are held in high esteem, the result is very open. # Forecast of New Members. In Central Otago Mr. C. Todd, Re form, is reported to be making an excellent fight of it against Mr. W. A Bodkin, the official Coalition candidate. The oclds appear to be somewhat in favour of Mr. Bodkin, but the result is by no means a foregone conclusion. From present indications the Otago representatives in the new House may be:—Dunedin North, Mr. J. McCrae, Coalition; Dunedin West, the Hon. W. Doivnie Stewart, Coalition; Dunedin Central, Sir Charles Statham, Independent; Dunedin South, Mr. F. Jones, Labour; Chalmers, Mr. A. E. Ansell, Coalition; Central Otago, Mr. W. A. Bodkin, Coalition ; Oamam, Mr. J. A. Macpherson, Coalition; Waitaki, Mr. J. Bit-chener, Coalition.

HAWKE'S BAY SEATS.

NO CHANGES EXPECTED. INTEREST IN NAPIER CONTEST. [BY TELEGK.U'H. —OWN CORRESPONDENT.] NAPIER, Sunday. Two Ministers have addressed large audiences in support of the official Coalition candidate for Napier, Mr. J. S. Butler, and there are some who are now quite hopeful about his chances of unseating the Labour candidate, Mr. W. E. Barnard. However, there is a big Labour vote in the electorate, in addition to which Mr. Barnard has lost no opportunity to appeal for sympathy on the score of his services to the constituency.

Another matter which might toll in Labour's favour is the fact that a number of people hold the view that Mr. Barnard is a Socialist of moderate type, and, as such, would do little harm in the House. Mr. Butler has been sjJeaking very well and made a good impression, but the indications are that in a close contest Labour will retain the seat. liawke's Bay is still a Coalition certainty. The Labour candidate, Mr. E. L. Cullen, will no doubt poll fairly well in Hastings, but even there he may not get a lead on Mr. H. M. Campbell, Coalition, whose support throughout the electorate as a whole is as strong as ever. However, Mr. Campbell has not taken anything for granted, having conducted a vigorous campaign, and making his position more secure than ever. Mr. Cullen has also been active, but he was hitherto little known in the district and is unlikely to make an appreciable impression beyond the purely Labour vote. Waipawa is a little doubtful, although, odds are in favour of Mr. A- E. Jull, the official Coalition candidate. Reformers in the electorate appear to be divided, some'working strongly for Mr. J. D. Ormond and others holding the view that they must keep faith with the Coalition pact and vote for Mr. dull. The latter is making much of the fact that the Reformers originally decided to withdraw Mr. Ormond and at the eleventh hour altered the decision, leaving only 10 days for the campaign in a scattered electorate. The Hon. E. A. Ransom, Coalition, has been returned unopposed for Pahiatua, the remaining Hawke's Bay seat.

SWEEPSTAKES FAVOURED.

MR. 0. LAFFERTY'S VIEWS

[FROM OUR OWN CORRESPONDENT.]

HAMILTON. Sunday

A, statement that he favoured sweepstakes, provided the Government received a fair proportion of the revenue, thus keeping the money in the country, was made by Mr. C. Lafferty, Independent candidate for Hamilton, in the course of an address at Hamilton East on Friday evening. The candidate said while he would not advocate gambling houses on a large scale in the Dominion, the revenue from sweepstakes must not be ignored. These enterprises, however, should be organised for national, not private, benefit, if he approved of licensing bookmakers, Mr. Lafferty expressed the opinion that as long as it was lawful to bet on the totalisator, a bookmaker should not be regarded as a criminal. His operations should be safeguarded, a revenue drawn from his income and his accounts subjected to a State audit. Mr. Lafferty was accorded a yote of thanks,;