POLITICAL GOSSIP.

ELECTION NOTES AN3> ANTICIPATIONS.

I: [from our correspondent.j j! WELLINGTON, Nov. 14. j * : Continuing my notes on the North I Island candidates I will start with ; I the Otaki seat, held in the last Par- ; I liament by a Labor Member, Mr J. } . Robertson, who,. it may be remem- , S bered, defeated a Wardite. Mr Field, ; I '• by the aid, it is generally recognised, ; 5"ol the Masseyifbe vote on t.he uecond ■ j • ballot. See, however, what curious i I • changes the whirligig of time can •; I bring round. This time .Mr .Field is ■ !■ standing as a Reformer, while Mr, | ' Robertson, who last election defeated ' the "Liberal" Mr Field, will now, lit is understood, get the great bulk lof the Liberal vote. There is, it is : true, a third candidate, Mr Gardener, ' Mayor of Levin, in the field, as an ' Oppositionist;. bub I shall be suri prised if he goes to the poll. # But it iis funny, to say the least of it, to see { the electors who rushed to "put i Robertson in to put Ward out" now I supporting the gentleman who in 1911 was pledged to support Sir j Joseph. Mr Field's supporters are I very confident of his winning the I seat. On the other hand, the story ( goes that many of his old supporters, I annoyed at his change of political I front, will now support the Labor | man. As, however, the fla* industry !is pretty flat just now and a good ! many workers have left the district, | Mr Robertson's chances of retaining 1 the seat are not so good as they would ; otherwise have been. At Palnverston Nont'h there will be , a triangular duel between the old Member, Mr Biiick, the well-known j racing man and a stalwart Masseyite, i Mr Nash, the Mayor of Palmerston, I also a Reformer, and a Mr Crabb, a ! storekeeper at Haloombe, who will j carry a Liberal plus Prohibition ban- ' ner. The splitting of the Reform j vote is in Mr Crabb's favor; buit I j quite expect the old horse to score a ', j fairly easy win. ~ 1 j For Oroua Mr D. Guthrie, the J senior Government Whip, has not, up j to the present, an opponent, and in j any case, whoever may come out to* carry the • Liberal standard, Mr Guthrie should hold him qui)te safe, as' this is a Government■■ stronghold. No change is likiely in the Rangitikei j district. • ( >At Wanganui the redoubtable Mr } Fred -Pirani is opposing Mr Veitch, the sanest and most mod-crate of the Labor Members of the laafc Parliament. Mr Pirani is sure to put up a big fight, but from what I hear has ■■ but a poor show. Mr Veitch may ■; have lost a few of his old supporters; but the Labor and Liberal vote is j very strong in Wanganui town, and • ! the railway vote, which he will get ? en bloc, _is a very substantial one. Opposition candidates are out for the Patea, Egmont, and Taranaki seats; but. I anticipate no change in the representation of these districts, although Mr Hawkins, formerly Member for Pahiatua, may give Mr Hine at Stratford a good run for the £300 a year.. At one time it was thought that Mr Pear'ce was weak, owing to his aittitude towards a local rating Bill.. But more recently I have heard that he can be reckoned fairly safe. Considerable interest attaches to some of the Auckland contests. In Auckland City, Mr Arthur Myers.and Mr Glover are said to be perfectly safe. But Mr Bradney will, it is said, be seriously challenged by Mr Poole, who held the seat in the previous Parliament. Mr-Poole'cam© to New Zealand from America as a temperance lecturer, local preacher, and so forth, and was promptly christened "Brother Poole" by his Parliamentary comrades.. He has been away in the United States for a couple of years or so; but despite ithe charge of being a "carpet-bagger" he is sure to poll well. Mr Massey's mana in Auckland may, however, pull liirii through. Mr Bradney did not shine , with any great brilliance in the House; but then no one who knows Parliament expects anything 'beyond respectable mediocrity from the Auckland representatives. For Parnell that extraordinary person, Mr Dick-, son,, who defeated Sir John Findlay, should, on© would think, be easy to defeat; but as I have said, Auckland is a queer place politically, and Parnell may find some mysterious cliarm in the Dicksonian eloquence just as the electors, of Auckland Central—"my dear people ofHauekland Central," as Halbert Hedward styles them—are permanently under the fascination of the Gloverian eloquence. Special interest attaches to the contest for the Grey Lynn seat, held in the last Parliament by the more or less famous Mr Payne, who,-it may be remembered, was supported by" Masseyite votes on the ballot against Mr Fowlds, and who afterwards turned round and voted with Sir Joseph. Mr Payne is now opposed by Mr Fowlds, who, by the way, has quite relinquished his "third or Fowlds party" ambitions, and is standing as a straight-out Wardite, and by Mr Murdoch • McLean, of the big contracting firm ' who are constructing the Otira tun- : nel. Mr McLean is the Reformer, and on paper ought to win easily in a ; "top man in" contest. From what I > can gather the real fight will be be- : tween Messrs McLean and Payne. / The veteran Mr John Bollard has ■ retired from politics so far •■ as the ; Lower House is concerned, and will, » I hear, be promoted to the Council in due course. Meanwhile Mr Parr, the j Mayor of Auckland, will be the Re- { form candidate for Eden, and is ex- i pected to win. In Waitemata Mr i Harris's chances of re-election were aifc one.time, said to be somewhat poor. But later news is to the effect that he will probably hold the seat for his party. North of Auckland election interest will centre in the Bay of Islands con.test, where'the Reform vote will be: i divided between Mr Vernon Reed r who, elected to support Sir Joseph* Ward, executed * a strategic move-J ; merit'to •■the Massey 'sid,e.',;whe,n: di&-q appointed, in his ambition to getting; -a portfolio in the Mackeiizie Minis-, ; ftry, and Mr Wilkinson, wto was the Masseyite candidate against Mr Reed ■ in 1911. , This time Mr Reed is the :{. official Reform candidate, a fact ;' which has caused no small bitterness and may largely affect the result of , the election. The Liberal or, Opposi- i tion candidate is Dr. Buck (Te Rangi- |, hiroa) who made himself extremely '.! \ popular in the Far North at the time (of the smallpox epidemic. He is in ' i exceptionally intelligent man, and his ! personal geniality may make him\. ; friends. As a rule in a district where1, i there are many natives the pakteha >, does not like the idea,of supporting a ' half-caste—although Sir James Car- < roll's case is an exception—and my ) latesjb information seems to favor Mr \ Wilkinson's chances. For the K»i- ,' para seat aa .ex-Me-nibcr,- Mr;

Harding, is said to be out aganist Mr Coates, who, elected as an Independent, soon became one of the most devoted of Mr Massey's followers. Mr Harding, who is a Reformer, is or was, also a strong Prohibitionist. Mr Coates will, I think, retain *he seat. A warm contest is expected at the Thames, where Mr Rhodes is opposed by "Parson" Taylor, an esCongregationalist minister who sat in the last Parliament but one as a Wardite. This is expected (to be an exceptionally severe contest, and it is considered probable that Mr Rhodes may go under, although the fact that his opponent has been out of the district for some time may not improbably affect the result. Mr Herries is a "sure thing" for Tauranga, and Mr Poland, although said to be not so strong as he was, will probably come back as Member for .Ohinemui'i. Mr Macdonald, one of the ablest men on the Opposition side, is expected to hold the Bay of Plenty seajt. At Gisborne, however, Sir James Carroll is meeting with strong opposition from Mr De Lautour ? a son of the I>e Lautour who, twenty years or so ago, used to be sin the House as a supporter of Sir NGeorge Grey. The popular "Timi Kara" will, it is said, have all his work cut out to win; but I fully expect him to be "there" at the finish.